Blue Jays vs Guardians Picks and Predictions: No Mistake by the Lake

Toronto avoided a sweep in its previous series, sneaking out a W in the finale, and now head to Cleveland and an excellent get-right spot. Our MLB betting picks highlight why the Blue Jays will roll the Guardians on Thursday.

Last Updated: May 5, 2022 2:57 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Bo Bichette Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays were able to avoid a sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees last night with a hard-fought 2-1 victory and they’ll look to carry that momentum over into the opener of their four-game set with the Cleveland Guardians.

Toronto’s offense has been a little underwhelming through the first month of the MLB season but it'll have a chance to get back on track against slumping Cleveland starter Aaron Civale. Will the Jays' bats wake up or do the Guardians have value as an underdog?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Guardians on Thursday, May 5.

Blue Jays vs Guardians odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Blue Jays opened this American League battle as -150 road favorites and that has since increased to as high as -170 at some sportsbooks. The total hit the board at 8.0 and is now juiced towards the Under to the point where 7.5s could start popping up.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Blue Jays vs Guardians predictions

Picks made on 5/5/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Blue Jays vs Guardians game info

Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date: Thursday, May 5, 2022
First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet 1, Bally Sports Great Lakes

Blue Jays vs Guardians betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios (2-0, 4.13 ERA): Berrios has bounced back from just a disastrous start to the season that saw him surrender seven runs on nine hits in 5 1-3 innings over his first two starts. Since then, the right-hander has pitched to a 1.93 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over his last three starts.

Aaron Civale (0-2, 10.67 ERA): Civale on the other hand, is still trying to break out of his early-season funk. The right-hander has allowed six runs on seven hits in each of his last two starts and hasn’t pitched more than four innings in any of his four starts this season. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez OF (Questionable), Danny Jansen C (Out).
Guardians: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 7-0 in Aaron Civale's last seven starts when facing a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Guardians

Blue Jays vs Guardians picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Blue Jays avoided a sweep at the hands of the Yankees with a 2-1 victory last night, in a series that was extremely close outside of a late-inning meltdown on Tuesday night. The win improved Toronto’s record to 16-10.

While that record is nothing to scoff at, Toronto's offense has certainly been underwhelming to this point. Despite ranking ninth in batting average and OPS, this team currently ranks 22nd in scoring, plating just 3.76 runs per game.

That’s due to the Jays' continued struggles to cash in with runners on. After last night’s game, the Jays improved their batting average with runners in scoring position to a whopping .172. Did the sarcasm come through there? That is, not shockingly, the worst mark in baseball.

The Jays should have an opportunity to rectify that tonight against Aaron Civale. The right-hander has had just a miserable start to the season. He is a control pitcher finding too much of the plate right now, and while his expected ERA is a much more reasonable 4.48, his expected slugging percentage is .494 and he has a 1.95 WHIP.

And the Jays still rank ninth in batting average and 10th in OPS when facing righties, while no one has swatted more home runs off right-handers this season than them.

Toronto counters Civale with Berrios who, as noted, has bounced back from a dreadful start and now faces a familiar foe after spending several years in the Guardians' division with the Minnesota Twins.

Berrios has made eight starts against the Guardians dating back to 2019 and owns a 2.85 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and averages 5.9 innings per start in those contests. 

The Guardians have gotten off to an excellent start at the dish this season and enter this game winners of four in a row, but haven’t faced too many top-end starters this season.

Berrios should build off his last few starts and if there was ever a time for the Jays' bats to wake up it would be in this matchup. Even at this price, we'll lean their way.

Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-155 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

It’s interesting to see a total so low for a game when you consider how much both pitchers have struggled entering this matchup. Sportsbooks are obviously respecting Berrios’ history against the Guardians and taking note of the Jays' struggles to hit with runners in scoring position, but I believe there is an opportunity to jump on the Over here.

Yes, Berrios has pitched well against the Guardians over the course of his career, but he is still finding too much of the plate with his fastball and opponents have a ridiculously high .393 expected batting average when facing it. That’s not great when you consider the Guardians are leading MLB in batting average and OPS when it comes to facing right-handed pitching.

While advanced numbers do Civale some favors, he is clearly still struggling with his location and was hammered in his lone career start versus the Blue Jays. Last May, they whacked him around for four runs on 10 hits, including two dingers. 

Even though the Jays haven’t been clutch of late, they still hit for a high average and it looks like Bo Bichette is starting to find his rhythm. 

Bet on both teams to contribute to cashing the Over tonight. 

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Best bet

This is a game where it really feels like both lineups should have the edge over two struggling starters. Mix in a Cleveland bullpen that ranks 15th in ERA and a Toronto bullpen that ranks 23rd, and the Over looks more and more like a solid bet.

PickOver 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)


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