Rays vs Mariners Picks and Predictions: Tampa Finds the Edge in Close Matchup

Tampa Bay just swept Oakland and now heads to the Pacific Northwest to take on Seattle and reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray. In a battle of southpaws, our MLB betting picks highlight what will give the Rays the edge vs. the Mariners.

Last Updated: May 5, 2022 1:28 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Shane McClanahan Tampa Bay Rays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Mariners fell to 12-13 on the season after losing to the Houston Astros on Wednesday. The team will now look to get right back to the .500 mark by earning a win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday. 

Will Seattle get back in the win column against a Tampa Bay team that just earned a three-game sweep over the Oakland Athletics? Continue reading our Rays vs. Mariners MLB picks and predictions to see how this one might play out. 

Rays vs Mariners odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

After opening at -100 in this meeting with the Rays, the Mariners are now plus-money despite having a Cy Young Award winner on the mound at home. Seattle is going for as high as +118 at the moment. The total here appears to be on the rise, with the number opening at 6.5 and now being up at 7 on a lot of sportsbooks. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Rays vs Mariners predictions

Picks made on 5/5/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Rays vs Mariners game info

Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Date: Thursday, May 5, 2022
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Sun, Root-Northwest

Rays vs Mariners betting preview

Starting pitchers

Shane McClanahan (1-2, 3.00 ERA): McClanahan was rather impressive in a loss to the Minnesota Twins in his last start, as he struck out 11 batters and gave up three earned runs in five innings of work. The lefty just gave up two homers in that game, and he’ll need to do a better job of avoiding mistakes like that here. He has, however, given up three or fewer runs in each of his five appearances this year, so he has been a sturdy part of this rotation. 

Robbie Ray (2-2, 4.15 ERA): Ray was one of the hottest commodities in baseball during the offseason, as he was 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA and won the AL Cy Young Award as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays last year. The lefty hasn’t been quite as dominant in Seattle just yet, but he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in four of his five starts. It’s also only a matter of time before we see him at his best in his new surroundings.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Rays: Ji-Man Choi 1B (Out), Chris Mazza P (Out), Francisco Mejia C (Out), Shane Baz P (Out), Luis Patino P (Out), Nick Anderson P (Out), Tyler Glasnow P (Out), Phoenix Sanders P (Out).
Mariners: Mitch Haniger OF (Out), Evan White 1B (Out), Sergio Romo P (Out), Casey Sadler P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 9-2-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 12 series openers. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Mariners

Rays vs Mariners picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

In a matchup between two impressive lefty pitchers, you have to look at how each team performs against southpaws. Once you do that, it shouldn’t take too long to see that the Rays have the advantage here. 

Kevin Cash’s team has the fifth-best batting average in baseball against lefties this season, and the team is also 10th in the league in on-base plus slugging against southpaws. When you compare that to Seattle’s ranking of 23rd in batting average and 14th in on-base plus slugging against lefties, it’s just clear that Tampa Bay has a minor edge here. 

It’s not likely that either one of these teams will put a big number on the scoreboard in this game, but it’s hard to ignore the statistics that work in Tampa Bay’s favor here. The Rays also have a Top-5 bullpen ERA in MLB, so the team is also well equipped to get across the finish line if both McClanahan and Ray have it going in the early innings. 

It’s also worth noting that Ray’s best work came in afternoon games during last year’s Cy Young season. The lefty was 6-1 with a 1.88 ERA in day games last year, but he was just 7-6 with a 3.30 ERA at night. Perhaps that’s something else that will give the Rays a small edge in this one. 

One thing to keep an eye on in this game is the matchup between Ray and Yandy Diaz. The first baseman is 6 for 19 with four doubles and a homer against Ray in his career, so maybe he’ll be the one to provide a spark in a low-scoring game. 

Prediction: Rays moneyline (-118 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

The Under is 7-2 in the last nine games that Tampa Bay has played with a total that gets to 6.5 or lower. It’s also 9-2-1 in the last 12 series openers that the Rays have played, and it’s 5-2 in the last seven games that the Mariners have played overall. These teams both can go cold with the bats at times, and there are two very good pitchers on the mound in this contest. 

With that said, it’s just not hard to see that the Under is the right call in this one, even if the number is a little lower than you’d like it to be. 

The Under also happens to be 6-1 in the last seven games in which McClanahan has pitched, and four of those six Unders have seen the two teams combining to score six or fewer. That’s a good sign heading into this one, and you should just expect the lefty to go out there and try to pitch a gem against Ray. 

Prediction: Under 7 (-118 at FanDuel

Best bet

The Rays are playing some great baseball right now, as they are 8-3 in their last 11 games and are coming off a three-game sweep on the road. Tampa Bay has won in a variety of ways in this recent stretch, with the team winning some high-scoring games and some low-scoring ones. This one figures to be more of the latter, but that is actually going to benefit the Rays a bit more because of their bullpen. 

Overall, the Mariners are just reeling at the moment, as they have lost seven of their last eight games. It’s hard to see many reasons to back them in this contest, even if Ray is the one starting this game. It also doesn’t help that Seattle is missing Haniger, who is one of the team’s most dangerous hitters. 

PickRays moneyline (-118 at WynnBet)

MLB parlays

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