Nationals vs Rockies Picks and Predictions: Colorado Rocks Washington in Matinee

Two average-at-best pitchers face off in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field this afternoon. Naturally, we're backing the Over, and also for Ryan McMahon to have his say in our Nationals vs. Rockies betting picks.

Last Updated: May 5, 2022 9:02 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Ryan McMahon Colorado Rockies MLB
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The Colorado Rockies surprisingly decided to spend a lot of money in the offseason, despite giving off heavy rebuilding vibes in previous years. Now, the Rockies sit at 14-10 and the team has won four of its last five games heading into this meeting with the Washington Nationals. 

Will Colorado continue its solid start to the year by earning another win over Washington? Check out our Nationals vs. Rockies MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, May 5 to find out. 

Nationals vs Rockies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

We have a high total in this game at Coors Field. After this game opened with a total of 10.5, a lot of books are now putting it out there at 11. 

As for the sides, the Rockies opened as -128 favorites and have gone as high as -141 since then. The best price you’ll find for Colorado is -130 as of Thursday morning. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Nationals vs Rockies predictions

Picks made on 5/5/2022 at 3:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Nationals vs Rockies game info

Location: Coors Field, Denver, CO
Date: Thursday, May 5, 2022
First pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET
TV: YouTube

Nationals vs Rockies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Aaron Sanchez (1-1, 6.75 ERA): Sanchez’s two starts this season both came against a good San Francisco Giants offense, and the righty allowed just seven earned runs over 9 1-3 innings over those two outings. The Nationals can’t possibly be too disappointed with that, and the 29-year-old should get better as the season progresses. He got off to a late start to the year, but he should be just fine now. 

Antonio Senzatela (2-1, 3.66 ERA): Senzatela got lit up in a start against the Detroit Tigers on April 23, but the righty has actually been very good outside of that. Senzatela doesn’t wow you with his pitch movement or anything, and he has very much been more of an innings eater early in his career. However, the 27-year-old has allowed only one run in two of his last three starts, and he has surprisingly had no trouble pitching at Coors Field throughout his career. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Nationals: Anibal Sanchez P (Out), Nelson Cruz DH (Questionable), Ehire Adrianza 3B (Out), Sean Doolittle P (Out), Dee Strange-Gordon 2B (Out).
Rockies: Kris Bryant OF (Out), Lucas Gilbreath, (Out), Robert Stephenson (Out), Ryan Rolison P (Out), Peter Lambert P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 7-2 in Colorado’s last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Rockies

Nationals vs Rockies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Rockies evened up this three-game series with a 5-2 win over the Nationals last game. Now, Colorado sends Senzatela to the mound, and the righty has been rock-solid at Coors Field in his career.

When pitching in Colorado, Senzatela is 26-12 with a 4.53 ERA, which compares very favorably to his road record of 12-24 — with an ERA of 5.14. The 27-year-old is also already 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA at home this year, and he had a 3.97 ERA at home last year. That was a heck of a lot better than his road ERA of 5.05, and this all just shows that he is unbothered by the hitter-friendly conditions in this stadium. 

Of course, it’s unfair to expect the righty to shut down the Nationals here, but his experience pitching in Denver has to count for something — especially in a matchup with a pitcher that isn’t exactly dominant himself. This figures to be something of a high-scoring game, but Senzatela is a little more trustworthy than Sanchez because he won’t be rattled if things go a little south. 

The Rockies are fourth in the league in slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this year, and they’re also in the Top 10 in runs scored against righties. Colorado’s offense has a number of dangerous players, and it’s just hard to see them not coming through. You’ll want to keep an eye on some of the Rockies’ lefties, as Sanchez can struggle facing hitters on that side of the plate. 

Prediction: Rockies moneyline (-130 at WynnBET

Over/Under analysis

Whenever a game is played at Coors Field, there’s always a good chance of it going well Over the total. The last game between these two only had seven combined runs, but the first game in this series saw them combining for 12 — with Washington scoring 10 of them. These teams are both pretty dangerous at the plate, with Colorado Top 10 in runs scored this year and Washington tied for 12th. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see these offenses both find a lot of success in the best park in baseball for hitters.

It also doesn’t hurt that neither one of these teams is sending a stud to the mound. Both of these pitchers would be considered average options, at best. So, none of these hitters will be too worried about the matchup. 

The Over is 7-1 in Washington’s last eight road games against teams with winning records. It’s also 7-2 in Colorado’s last nine games overall. 

Prediction: Over 10.5 (-115 at Bet MGM)

Best bet

Ryan McMahon is putting together a nice year for the Rockies thus far, as he is on pace to drive in 92 runs. The 27-year-old also happens to be coming off a two-hit game against the Nationals, which was big for him after going hitless in back-to-back contests. McMahon should now be able to turn in another good offensive performance, as the lefty slugger does his best work when facing right-handed pitching. 

This season, all 13 of McMahon’s RBIs have come against righties, and he doesn’t have a single extra-base hit against southpaws. Considering he has a triple, six doubles, and two homers against righties this year, he should be very comfortable with this matchup. 

Given McMahon’s ability to come up with big hits — and his overall power at the plate — he should be able to cash in on his total bases prop here. This figures to be a very high-scoring game, and it’d be surprising if he wasn’t a big part of it. 

Pick: Ryan McMahon total bases Over 1.5 (-105) 

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