Tigers vs Astros Picks and Predictions: Back Tigers Southpaw in Road Win

The Houston Astros have seemingly found traction but will face a pitcher on Thursday that had his way against them last season. Find out why we're taking Detroit at plus-money in our Tigers vs. Astros betting picks.

Last Updated: May 5, 2022 12:27 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros (14-11) have won three in a row and are 7-3 over their last 10 games. Tonight, they will play host to the Detroit Tigers (8-15) who split a doubleheader against the Pirates yesterday. 

Who will take the first of a four-game series at Minute Maid Park?

Find out more in our free MLB picks and predictions for Tigers vs. Astros on Thursday, May 5. 

Tigers vs Astros odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Astros opened as -170 favorites on the moneyline with the total set at 8.0, juiced to the Over at -120. Houston is now -155 on the moneyline, with the Tigers going from +150 to +135.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Tigers vs Astros predictions

Picks made on 5/05/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Tigers vs Astros game info

Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Date: Thursday, May 5, 2022
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports, ATTSN-SW

Tigers vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Tarik Skubal (1-2, 3.05 ERA): Skubal has great swing and miss stuff, but has also been prone to the long-ball throughout his career. The southpaw has gotten off to a solid start to 2022, sporting a 119 ERA+ with no home runs allowed. 

Jose Urquidy (2-1, 5.95 ERA): Urquidy hasn't fared well in his first four outings, with a bleak 5.95 ERA. The 27-year-old right-hander has yet to go more than five innings in a game this season, with an alarming WHIP of 1.42 through 19 2-3 innings.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Tigers: Victor Reyes CF (Out).
Astros: Jose Altuve 2B (Questionable), Jake Meyers CF (Out), Ryan Pressly RP (Out), Taylor Jones 1B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 7-3 in the Astros' last 10 during game 1 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Astros

Tigers vs Astros picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The last time these two teams met was in Houston, where Detroit squeaked out a 2-1 road win. That game featured Tarik Skubal starting on the mound for the Tigers.

Skubal went seven strong innings, allowing only one hit and one earned run, striking out nine. The 25-year-old has already had two games this season where he's gone five or more innings, allowing one run or fewer.

The Astros' best hitter so far this season has been Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is boasting an OPS+ of 195 and leads the team in home runs with eight.

Meanwhile, for Detroit, both outfielder Robbie Grossman and Austin Meadows have OBP's of .390 or higher to start the 2022 season and could be two lefties that give Urquidy fits. Offseason addition Javier Baez is also looking better at the plate lately, getting on base at least once in six of his last seven games.

Although Miguel Cabrera is no longer the beast he once was, Miggy is still hitting .300 against right-handed pitching and batting .313 with men in scoring position through 20 games.

Detroit is also 4-1 in the last five meetings in Houston. While the Astros are starting to click on all cylinders offensively, they have arguably their weakest pitcher on the mound tonight, and getting Detroit at +135 is still the right play.

Prediction: Tigers moneyline (+135 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

There's no doubt the Astros have been raking this past week, but Houston has faced fairly weak pitching in those outings and is now going up against a southpaw that really gave them trouble last year.

Skubal remains one of the hidden pitching gems in baseball, so there's a lot of value on the Under here. The Astros have done most of their damage these last couple of games off right-handers, and are only hitting .204 against lefties so far this season. That ranks 25th in all of baseball. 

The Under has cashed successfully in five of Houston's last six games and is 7-3 in Detroit's last 10 games when the total was set at 7.0-8.5.

With Skubal on the bump, I'm expecting Houston's bats to be neutralized. Besides, I'm not exactly banking on an offensive explosion from Detroit either. The Tigers are averaging just 3.2 runs per game (27th in the MLB) thus far.

Prediction: Under 8.0 (+100 at bet365)

Best bet 

In order for the Tigers to win this game, they'll have to win the starting pitching matchup. 

Make no bones about it, Skubal is better than Urquidy. If the Tigers can get an early lead, we're in good shape. 

For those that are concerned about taking Detroit to win outright, Tigers F5 is an appealing wager. Astros' second baseman Jose Altuve could be out tonight after getting hit in the groin with a pitch yesterday, and the Astros aren't the same offensively without him in the lineup.

Pick: Tigers First Five Innings (+175 at bet365)

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Tigers vs. Astros picks, you could win $119.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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