Mets vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: Cruising New York Undervalued in Philly

We're a month into the season and everything's gone New York's way, as it has the most wins in baseball. Yet, it's the MLB betting underdog in Philadelphia today. Our Mets vs. Phillies picks highlight why you should stick with rolling New York here.

Last Updated: May 5, 2022 12:24 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Pete Alonso New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Everything has gone the New York Mets' way after one month of the MLB season. They're hitting, pitching, and are tied for the most wins in baseball — all without Jacob deGrom.

The same can’t be said for the Philadelphia Phillies. While they own a potent lineup, their pitching has let them down early on, but they’ll hand the ball to Aaron Nola for the opener of a big four-game set this weekend against the Mets.

Can you back Nola and a potent Philadelphia lineup tonight, or does New York have value as road underdogs? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Phillies on Thursday, May 5.

Mets vs Phillies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

With their ace on the mound, the Phillies opened this matchup as -140 home favorites and have seen the early money, moving as high as -170 at some shops. The total hit the board at 8 but is juiced to the Over and some 8.5s have started to pop up.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Phillies predictions

Picks made on 5/5/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Thursday, May 5, 2022
First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Mets vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Walker has pitched only seven innings so far this season thanks to some shoulder soreness but he has given up a run on just two hits over those innings. Funnily enough, all of those coming against the Phillies. 

Aaron Nola (1-3, 3.90 ERA): Not surprisingly, Nola has been the Phillies' most reliable starter, pitching into the sixth in four of his five starts and has racked up 34 strikeouts in 27 2-3 innings. The Mets have given him some problems this year.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Trevor May RP (Out).
Phillies: Odubel Herrera OF (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 7-0 in their last seven games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies

Mets vs Phillies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Mets enter this game with an 18-9 record, 4.5 games ahead of the 11-14 Phillies in the National League East standings. 

The Mets have gotten off to a hot start because they are firing on all cylinders early on. They rank second in batting average and fourth in OPS while their pitching staff ranks second in both opponent batting average and OPS.

The Phillies, on the other hand, have relied on their offense to this point. They rank fifth in OPS and seventh in batting average, but the pitching has left something to be desired, ranking 20th and 21st in opponent batting average and OPS respectively.

This will already be the third series these two division rivals have played this season. The Mets have had the upper hand, taking four of the first six, but if Philly wants to strike first in this one it all starts with Nola.

The Phillies' ace has some solid numbers to start the season, but the Mets have given him the most problems so far. The right-hander has already made two starts against them, one was OK, the other was not. On April 29, he pitched six innings, allowing three runs on seven hits while striking out nine. An April 13 meeting saw him last 3 1-3 after surrendering three runs on three hits and three walks.

The advanced numbers say Nola has been a little unlucky as well. The right-hander has an expected ERA of 2.32 and an opponent expected batting average of .190. 

The Mets counter with Taijuan Walker, who missed most of the month with shoulder soreness. As noted, he has already pitched seven shutout innings against the Phillies this season, including five on two hits back on April 30. 

Now, the Phillies have the edge in starters and the lineup is one of the toughest to navigate in the National League but there is no way the Mets, who are hitting even better, should be underdogs this big in a game that will likely end with another close final box score.

Prediction: Mets moneyline (+142 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the total, the early money has come in on the Over but now sitting at 8.5, the number seems a touch too high.

We’ve already talked about how Nola has been a little unlucky when it comes to his overall numbers this season. His strikeout rate is high, he doesn’t walk a lot of guys, and it’s difficult to make hard contact against him. The Mets have slowed down the scoring a bit lately, averaging just 3.7 runs per game over their last seven games. 

On the other side, it’s unusual that Walker is making his third consecutive start against the same team, but he’s been very comfortable against this Phillies team. In his last three starts against the Phillies last season, the right-hander pitched to a 3.38 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP. Take away their latest series against the Colorado Rockies and the Phillies are averaging 2.8 runs per game over their last eight. 

Bet on the starting pitching to be strong enough to keep this one below the number. 

Prediction: Under 8.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

Best bet

While there should be confidence in the starting pitching in this matchup, the bullpens do give a little cause for concern.

Despite all the praise the Mets’ pitching staff is getting, the bullpen ranks 22nd in ERA and 18th in WHIP and is now without reliever Trevor May for the next little while after he landed on the IL. The Phillies are in a similar boat, as their relievers rank 21st in ERA and 24th in WHIP so far this season. 

Mix in two very capable offenses and it can make you sweat thinking about the full-game Under. So, let’s take the bullpens out of the equation and go with the five-inning Under. The Mets and Phillies also rank 15th and 22nd respectively in first-five inning scoring. 

Bet on starting pitching to be the story early here.

Pick: Under 4.5 first five innings (-112 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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