That’s how you start a series!
The Toronto Blue Jays got home runs from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander while Chris Bassitt threw six scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over the San Diego Padres last night.
Can Toronto keep the momentum going with Kevin Gausman on the mound for Game 2? My Blue Jays predictions break it all down and bring you a best bet, plus a same-game parlay for this interleague showdown.
Blue Jays predictions for May 21
- Best bet
Guerrero Jr. o1.5 TB
(+110 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Guerrero Jr. o1.5 TB
Over 8.5
Varsho o0.5 RBI
(+460 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Vlad's Bat Stays Hot
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at BetVictor)
We got an awesome pitcher’s duel in Game 1 of this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres, with Chris Bassitt getting the best of Dylan Cease.
Game 2 sees Blue Jays veteran righty Kevin Gausman go against Randy Vasquez, who is in his sophomore season. While runs were tough to come by in the opener, that won't be the case tonight.
Gausman has been inconsistent this season, as amplified by his 4.36 expected ERA. While his splitter still dances, his success basically comes down to whether or not he’s controlling his fastball on a given night. And this Padres lineup could give him some problems, but more on that in a bit.
Meanwhile, the 26-year-old Vasquez has been solid on paper through nine starts. The RHP owns a 3.45 ERA heading into this matchup, however, his advanced numbers say a regression is on the horizon.
Vasquez is pitching to a 5.58 xERA while surrendering a .274 xBA to opponents — both rank in the Bottom 20% among MLB pitchers. He also isn’t striking out anyone as his 11.7% K-rate is in the second percentile.
The Blue Jays' lineup has been in a bit of a groove lately, which of course means Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has as well.
Vladdy hit his sixth home run of the season last night, and he’s now hitting .328 with a .956 OPS with three dingers and seven RBI over 17 games this month. He also has hits in all but two games in May.
But this shouldn’t come as a surprise to Jays fans. Their franchise first baseman ranks in the 94th percentile in xBA and the 85th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed.
Simply put, Vladdy is hitting the ball hard and often, meaning he'll be a difficult out for a guy like Vasquez, who pitches to a lot of contact.
Guerrero Jr.'s total bases prop is sitting at 1.5. He’s eclipsed this number four times in his last seven games, and at solid plus money, I like him to do it again tonight.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Over 8.5
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 RBI
Let’s get back to Gausman’s struggles against this Padres lineup. While Gausman can still spin a gem, particularly at home, the has been too much inconsistency in his game this season.
That’s something the Padres will love. This is one of the most patient lineups in baseball, with the lowest strikeout rate in the big leagues. Current Padres batters also have a combined .296 xBA and a .451 xSLG in 176 plate appearances vs. Gausman.
Combined with Vasquez’s projected regression, I expect this game total to be the opposite of last night.
Speaking of that regression, it’s been left-handed hitters who have given Vasquez the most problems this season, getting to him for a .274 average and a .818 OPS.
That has me looking at the southpaw slugger Daulton Varsho. The center fielder, known more for his glove, already has six home runs and 13 RBI in just 15 games this season.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Wednesday, May 21, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Randy Vasquez (3-3, 3.45 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (3-4, 4.59 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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