The Houston Astros will try to sweep away the Boston Red Sox in the finale of their three-game set at Fenway Park. The Astros are -135 moneyline road favorites in the MLB odds.
With Boston in the thick of the Wild Card chase and Houston tied with Seattle atop the AL West, our Astros vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks are counting on a solid pitching matchup to keep the score down.
Astros vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Under 10 (-122 at FanDuel)
My analysis
With their 5-4 win over the Boston Red Sox on Saturday, the Houston Astros have now ripped off four straight and averaged a healthy 5.75 runs in the process, a bump up from their 4.58 runs per game this season.
Houston ranks inside the Top 10 in OPS, slugging, and on-base percentage, while tied for the second-best batting average in baseball at .261. They’ll be looking to support starter Hunter Brown, who's looking for his 10th win of the season on Sunday.
Brown is coming off a no-decision last time out against the Rangers, but he pitched a gem, scattering three hits over six innings of work with just a single earned run allowed. That’s the third time in four starts the righty has held the opposition to one earned run or fewer, all three of them turning into Houston wins.
He’ll be facing a Red Sox team that’s trying to avoid a sixth straight loss to the Astros, a streak that started in August of 2023. Boston enters Sunday just 2.5 games back of the Twins for the second and final AL Wild Card spot.
While they’re a Top-5 scoring unit in baseball, Boston’s pitching has been leaking. Over the last week, their ERA has ballooned to 5.60, the fifth-worst mark over that timeframe. James Paxton will try to deliver a get-right start, his second in a row in just his third start for Boston since being acquired from the Dodgers.
He went six strong last game against the Royals, giving up five hits and two earned runs in a 9-5 win. That was a big bounceback after being drilled for six hits and three earned runs in his debut with Boston, a start that only lasted 4 1/3 innings.
While Paxton’s been anything but lights out, he does keep it fairly consistent, giving up three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts. Houston has dominated this matchup of late, winners of five straight, but we’re shying away from picking a winner. Instead, with this solid pitching matchup, take advantage of that double-digit total.
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Astros vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 10
Yordan Alvarez 2+ hits
Jarren Duran 2+ total bases
Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez is having himself quite a season. He’s Top 10 in hitting and OPS, Top 20 in RBI, and just outside the Top 40 in runs driven in. He went 2-for-4 with a pair of dingers and three runs driven in Houston’s last game against the BoSox.
He's now connected with at least a base hit 14 times in the last 18 games, and has had eight multi-hit games over that span. He’s hitting an exceptional .354 on the road this year, and he should at least have a real, swinging chance of picking up another couple of hits Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Red Sox odds
Astros vs Red Sox live odds
Astros vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+110) | Boston +1.5 (-130)
- Moneyline: Houston -130 | Boston +110
- Over/Under: Over 10 | Under 10
Astros vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston has won five straight in this head-to-head.
- The Red Sox are 27-29 at home this season.
- The Astros are 3-3 in their last six as moneyline favorites.
- Boston has gone Over the total in seven of its last eight games.
Astros vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have won each of their last 10 Sunday games against AL West opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox.
Astros vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Space City Network, NESN |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Hunter Brown (9-7, 4.11 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | James Paxton (8-3, 4.52 ERA) |
Astros vs Red Sox latest injuries
Astros vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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