The toughest test in golf is just around the corner, and my golf picks are surveying the U.S. Open odds board for those looking to rise to the occasion.
Among them are Jon Rahm and Shane Lowry, both of whom are major champions and in form. I break down their chances in my U.S. Open picks below.
Golf picks for the U.S. Open 2025
- Rahm to win outright (+1200 at DraftKings)
- Lowry to win outright (+4500 at DraftKings)
- Young Top 40 (+115 at bet365)
- Grillo to make the cut (+125 at bet365)
- Lowry Round 1 Top Irish (+120 at bet365)
U.S. Open outright picks
Outright pick: Jon Rahm
+1200 at DraftKings
Jon Rahm is clearly trending up at the majors. The Spaniard played well on the weekend at the Masters to finish T14 and went T8 at the PGA Championship to finish just two shots back of second place.
He's matched strong putting numbers (10th at the Masters in strokes gained putting, 18th at the PGA) with some well-rounded ball-striking, but scarily, his iron play still has room to grow after ranking 40th and 27th in the first two majors. This is a guy who leads LIV in greens in regulation percentage, after all.
The 2021 U.S. Open champ has otherwise been steady as a rock with that aforementioned T14 his worst worldwide finish dating back to mid-January. If he finds his groove early in the week, look out.
Outright pick: Shane Lowry
+4500 at DraftKings
There are a ton of reasons to be interested in Shane Lowry this week, among them his runner-up finish right here at Oakmont in 2016 when he held a four-shot lead through three rounds.
His recent results are also riddled with strong performances. He finished T2 at the Truist in early May and is coming off a T13 in Canada, where he finished the week third in strokes gained approach.
Overall, the Irishman has logged 17 Top 20s in his last 22 worldwide starts dating back to August 2024. Lowry famously plays his best golf on the toughest tracks, and Oakmont is gearing up to be as tough as they come.
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U.S. Open prop pick
Finishing position pick: Cameron Young Top 40
+115 at bet365
I was in a hurry to add Cam Young to my card after he pieced together four strong rounds at TPC Toronto last week. That's also coming off the back of a T25 at the Memorial and a T7 at the Truist.
Notably, his tee game that's been up and down during this recent slump has been strong and steady over his last three starts, ranking third, third, and 18th in strokes gained off the tee in those fields.
At his best, his driver is his biggest weapon, and when you pair that with a putter that's gained strokes in five straight starts (and 11 of his last 13), he has the tools needed to land another quality result.
Finishing position pick: Emiliano Grillo to make the cut
+125 at bet365
Emiliano Grillo went 70-72 to make the cut at Pinehurst a year ago and comes to Oakmont on a bit of a heater.
He's logged Top-25 finishes in five of his last eight Tour starts, including his last three at the Myrtle Beach Classic (T20), Charles Schwab Challenge (T16), and Canadian Open (T24), and has only missed one cut since mid-March.
He also finished first, third, and first in those fields in strokes gained approach (third, eighth, seventh from tee to green). This is a generous +125 price, and I'm pulling the trigger.
U.S. Open first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Shane Lowry Top Irish
+120 at bet365
I'm not completely ruling out a great week from Rory McIlroy, but coming off a second-round 78 and a missed cut in Toronto, I'm certainly giving the edge to Shane Lowry early on.
Even with three huge victories on the season, Rory is just 50th in Round 1 scoring in 2025; Lowry is 15th. Considering the latter's Oakmont success mentioned above, it's also worth noting that Rory missed the cut in 2016 and opened with a 77 on Thursday.
Combine that with the +120 price, and this is an easy addition to the U.S. Open betting card.
U.S. Open odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +275
- Bryson DeChambeau: +800
- Rory McIlroy: +850
- Jon Rahm: +1200
- Xander Schauffele: +2000
- Collin Morikawa: +2500
- Joaquin Niemann: +3500
- Tommy Fleetwood: +3500
- Ludvig Aberg: +3500
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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