We’ve arrived at a favorite stop on the DP World Tour with the 2026 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship beginning Thursday, Oct. 1.
My favorite Alfred Dunhill Links Championship predictions and weekly golf picks are headlined by Matt Fitzpatrick because the former winner's game suits the demands of the three links-style courses and unpredictable Scottish coastal weather.
📇 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship top picks
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📊 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship odds
The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship runs at The Old Course at St Andrews, Carnoustie Golf Links, and Kingsbarns Golf Links from Thursday, Oct. 1, through Sunday, Oct. 4.
| Golfer |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 10% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 7.9% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 8.5% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 6.9% |
| Justin Rose | 5.8% |
| Alex Noren | 4% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 3.8% |
| Lucas Herbert | 3.7% |
| Dean Burmester | 3% |
| Brooks Koepka | 3% |
| David Puig | 2% |
| Marc Leishman | 1.8% |
🔍 What I'm looking for at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
This is a unique championship, with a pro-amateur format and a three-course rotation before the top 60 pros and ties and the top 20 teams advance to the final round at The Old Course at St Andrews on Sunday.
The other two courses are Carnoustie Golf Links and Kingsbarns Golf Links.
All three courses share several defining traits that dictate the style of play. As traditional coastal links, each track features firm turf, rolling sand dunes, and treeless landscapes completely exposed to the elements.
Additionally, to accommodate the amateur celebrities in the field, the setups intentionally feature wider fairways, slower green speeds, and highly accessible pin positions.
Weather is the primary defense of these courses because of the easy setups, and if there aren’t heavy winds or precipitation, the event can quickly come down to who makes the most birdie putts.
Key stats
- True strokes gained approach
- Par 5 scoring
- Scoring average
- True strokes gained around-the-green, scrambling
🏆 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship picks to win
Best bet to win: Matt Fitzpatrick
Typically, I wouldn’t recommend a player coming off a win. Matt Fitzpatrick isn’t rolling along a typical run, though, either. He’s the most complete player in the shallow field with five worldwide wins across his past 24 events while gaining true strokes across the board, after all.
- Course fit: Fitzpatrick won the 2023 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
- Recent form: Elite +1.37 true strokes gained tee-to-green across past two events
- Key stat: First in true strokes gained tee-to-green in field during highlighted heater
Outright pick: Sepp Straka
A four-time PGA Tour winner with two Ryder Cup appearances, Sepp Straka’s odds are too long in this field. He flashed two weeks ago with a T15 finish in a much tougher BMW PGA Championship field, and it’s particularly encouraging that Straka’s gained true strokes putting in consecutive events because his tee-to-green game spikes to an elite level when he’s at his best.
- Course fit: Straka's tee-to-green precision can carve easy course layouts
- Recent form: T15 in BMW PGA Championship in latest start
- Key stat: Fifth in field in true strokes gained approach across past 24 events
💣 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship long-shot picks
Best long-shot pick: Guido Migliozzi
With a T10-T7 run the past two weeks, Guido Migliozzi has my attention at a long number this week. The four-time DP World Tour winner has gained +1.59 true strokes tee-to-green and +1.58 on approach during the two-event run, so he’s a candidate to contend again with these courses set up for scoring.
- Course fit: Migliozzi's recent ball-striking suits any track
- Recent form: Consecutive Top 10s the past two weeks
- Key stat: First in field in true strokes tee-to-green through latest eight rounds
Best long-shot pick: Jeff Winther
A true long shot, Jeff Winther is dialed in across his past seven events with a win and four more Top 20s while ranking fourth in this field in true strokes gained approach, 14th in driving accuracy and 18th in putting.
- Course fit: Easy layout will suit Winther's current tee-to-green and putting form
- Recent form: T23-T15-T10 run the past three weeks
- Key stat: True strokes gained on approach and putting throughout three-event run
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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