Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy will do battle once again in a major, this time with Cameron Young firmly in the mix, according to the odds to win at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa.
We've called on Claude, ChatGPT, and Gemini for our PGA Championship AI picks, as the second golf major of the year tees off on Thursday.
Please note that while these large-language model chatbots were trained and prompted with data from the 2026 tournament, we don't advise blindly following AI for golf picks. Use these picks to help you make your own informed decisions.
🤖 PGA Championship AI picks: Best predictions for Aronimink Golf Club
All odds via BetMGM as of Tuesday at 11:40 a.m. ET.
| Market | Claude | ChatGPT | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outright winner | Scottie Scheffler +450 | Rory McIlroy +850 | Cameron Young +1200 |
| Long shot | Shane Lowry +8000 | Viktor Hovland +5500 | J.J. Spaun +6600 |
| First Round leader | Tommy Fleetwood +3500 | Aaron Rai +10000 |
Kurt Kitayama +7000 |
| Best prop | Rory McIlroy top-5 finish +170 | Russell Henley top-10 finish +400 | Matt Fitzpatrick top-10 finish +225 |
| Winning score | -17 | -11 | -9 |
| Cut line | +2 | +4 | +4 |
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🏆 PGA Championship outright picks
Claude: 
Scottie Scheffler (+450)
Dominant world No. 1, leads the tour in SG: Approach and SG: Total. Aronimink's Donald Ross layout rewards elite iron play — his strongest suit. Projects as the winner at -17.
ChatGPT: 
Rory McIlroy (+850)
McIlroy remains my favorite combination of upside and betting value. His current major form, elite long-iron play, and strong performance profile on classical northeastern setups make him the best fit relative to price.
Gemini: 
Cameron Young (+1200)
While Scottie Scheffler is the heavy favorite, Young has been the most consistent "big stage" performer in 2026 with two wins and a T3 at the Masters. His elite Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and improved putting on Northeastern bentgrass make him the ideal fit for Aronimink’s long Par 4s.
Get more on Cameron Young with Neil Parker's PGA Championship power rankings.
🎯 PGA Championship long-shot picks
Claude: Shane Lowry (+8000)
Traditional, tight layout suits his patient course management game. Major pedigree from 2019. Projects T8 at -12 with upside to climb — at 80/1 the implied probability badly undervalues his course fit.
ChatGPT: 
Viktor Hovland (+5500)
The number still looks too long for a player whose approach profile fits Aronimink extremely well.
Gemini: 
J.J. Spaun (+6600)
Spaun offers massive each-way value. He has been silently elite in ball-striking this season, and his game thrives on classical, positional courses that penalize erratic driving.
I offer three additional PGA Championship long-shot picks.
⏰ PGA Championship first-round leader picks
Claude: 
Tommy Fleetwood (+3500)
Projects to shoot -7 in Round 1 — the low round of the week in this projection. History of fast major starts. At 35/1, excellent value in a volatile market.
ChatGPT: Aaron Rai (+10000)
Aaron Rai is an ideal first-round leader target because Aronimink Golf Club’s demanding Donald Ross layout should reward his elite driving accuracy, controlled iron play, and bogey avoidance before conditions get tougher later in the week. At triple-digit odds on many sportsbooks, Rai has strong value to post an early 65 or 66 on a course expected to favor precision over pure power.
Gemini: Kurt Kitayama (+7000)
Kitayama is known for aggressive iron play and "hot" starts. On a course where mid-iron proximity is king, he has the volatility to post a 65 early on Thursday.
⭐ PGA Championship prop picks
Claude: Rory McIlroy Top 5 (+170)
Projects as the runner-up at -16. His iron play and course management suit Aronimink perfectly. Top 5 at +170 is better value than backing him outright at a compressed price.
ChatGPT: 
Russell Henley (+400)
Henley’s accuracy and bogey avoidance profile should translate extremely well here.
Gemini: 
Matt Fitzpatrick Top 10 (+225)
Fitzpatrick is a specialist on difficult, par-70 layouts with thick rough. Coming off three wins already in 2026, he is a "banker" for a top-10 in these conditions.
Neil Parker offers more PGA Championship predictions and prop picks to help round out your betting card.
🪧 AI's PGA Championship projected leaderboard: Top 20
| Claude | ChatGPT | Gemini |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler (-17) | Rory McIlroy (-11) | Cameron Young (-9) |
| Rory McIlroy (-16) | Scottie Scheffler (-9) | Scottie Scheffler (-7) |
| Xander Schauffele (-15) | Jon Rahm (-7) | Matt Fitzpatrick (-6) |
| Collin Morikawa (-14) | Viktor Hovland (-7) | Jon Rahm (-5) |
| Jon Rahm (-14) | Bryson DeChambeau (-5) | Rory McIlroy (-5) |
| Tommy Fleetwood (-13) | Russell Henley (-4) | Bryson DeChambeau (-4) |
| Viktor Hovland (-13) | Cameron Young (-4) | J.J. Spaun (-3) |
| Ludvig Åberg (-12) | Jordan Spieth (-3) | Xander Schauffele (-3) |
| Shane Lowry (-12) | Xander Schauffele (-3) | Ludvig Åberg (-2) |
| Patrick Cantlay (-12) | Tyrrell Hatton (-2) | Brooks Koepka (-2) |
| Bryson DeChambeau (-11) | Patrick Cantlay (-2) | Kurt Kitayama (-1) |
| Brooks Koepka (-11) | Sepp Straka (-2) | Collin Morikawa (-1) |
| Justin Thomas (-11) | Hideki Matsuyama (-1) | Tommy Fleetwood (-1) |
| Tony Finau (-10) | Shane Lowry (-1) | Justin Thomas (E) |
| Matt Fitzpatrick (-10) | Si Woo Kim (-1) | Robert MacIntyre (E) |
| Max Homa (-10) | Brooks Koepka (E) | Viktor Hovland (E) |
| Russell Henley (-9) | Robert MacIntyre (E) | Sahith Theegala (+1) |
| Adam Scott (-9) | Justin Rose (E) | Patrick Reed (+1) |
| Hideki Matsuyama (-9) | Tommy Fleetwood (+1) | Hideki Matsuyama (+1) |
| Keegan Bradley (-8) | Adam Scott (+1) | Wyndham Clark (+2) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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