My favorite part of golf betting is cashing tickets during the work week.
The second golf major of the year begins at 6:45 a.m. ET on Thursday, May 14, at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa., and our PGA Championship first-round leader predictions look to get this week's golf picks off to a winning start.
Below are my best PGA Championship first-round leader picks, based on the odds from Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps.
💰 PGA Championship first-round leader predictions (2026)
| Golfer |  |
Win probability | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +2025 | 4.7% | Gets out and in before harsher winds |
| Sam Burns | +5455 | 1.8% | 4th on Tour in early Round 1 scoring |
| Kristoffer Reitan | +7050 | 1.4% | 1.30 SG: putting in last week's win |
PGA Championship first-round leader picks made Wednesday, May 13 at 9 a.m. ET.
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📊 PGA Championship first-round leader odds (2026)
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
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⛳ Who'll lead the PGA Championship after Round 1?
Rory McIlroy (4.7%)
Tee time: 8:40 a.m. ET | Group: Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm
I took Rory McIlroy as one of my first-round leader predictions last week, and that ticket quickly went up in flames. I'll trust (hope?) that he used the Truist Championship to shake out the kinks in his first tournament action since winning the Masters.
I firmly believe McIlroy is squarely on the hunt for majors now that he has two green jackets in the closet. I expect to see pressure-free golf, as we did in the first two rounds at Augusta National. I like his early tee time, which will have him safely in the clubhouse at Aronimink before the afternoon wind picks up for the likes of Scottie Scheffler (2:05 p.m. ET tee time).
No, I'm not concerned about a reported toe injury (blister). Though McIlroy just snuck into Neil Parker's PGA Championship power rankings.
Rory McIlroy was asked what he liked about PGA Championship host Aronimink, and he talked both pros and cons of the course.
— Cameron Jourdan (@Cam_Jourdan) May 12, 2026
"I like the style of golf. I like the bunkering. There's a lot of bunkers. I think it provides quite a nice bit of variety with shorter par-4s, a couple… pic.twitter.com/J9kBlN9KTR
Sam Burns (1.8%)
Tee time: 7:34 a.m. ET | Group: Gary Woodland and Jason Day
Sam Burns is tied for fourth on the PGA Tour in early Round 1 scoring average this season, at 67.40 strokes per round through five events with an early tee time.
He's also a long hitter who's been hot with the flat stick over his past 12 rounds. He's 11th this season in par-4 scoring average.
Couple those key stats with the earliest Thursday tee time of our three first-round leader picks, and I'm ready to cash this +5455 ticket.
I was tempted to take Burns with my PGA Championship long-shot predictions but much prefer this market for him.
Kristoffer Reitan (1.4%)
Tee time: 8:13 a.m. ET | Group: Chris Kirk and Max Greyserman
Kristoffer Reitan, last week's Truist Championship winner, will fly under the radar this week. That's especially true for the fans in attendance on Thursday, as the super group of Bryson DeChambeau, Ludvig Aberg, and Rickie Fowler will be teeing off at roughly the same time, off of the 10th tee.
As such, I'm riding it out with Reitan for at least one more round. He gained 1.30 strokes per round with his putter last week. He also gained 1.99 strokes on approach in his final round en route to victory. Both of those will be key with wind expected to be Aronimink's best defense on Thursday.
Covers' golf betting analysts have more first-round leader predictions as part of our PGA Championship expert picks. Our PGA Championship AI picks offer up three more FRL selections.
📜 PGA Championship first-round leader history
Here are the recent first-round leaders of the PGA Championship, along with the tournament winner and their Round 1 scores:
| Year | First-round leader (score, finish) | Tournament winner (first-round score) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Jhonattan Vegas (-7, T5) | Scottie Scheffler (-2) |
| 2024 | Xander Schauffele (-9, 1) | Xander Schauffele (-9) |
| 2023 | Bryson DeChambeau (-4, T4) | Brooks Koepka (+2) |
| 2022 | Rory McIlroy (-5, 8) | Justin Thomas (-3) |
| 2021 | Corey Conners (-5, T17) | Phil Mickelson (-2) |
The winner of the past five runnings of the PGA Championship sat no more than six strokes back of the first-round leader. Four of the last five first-round leaders finished in the top 10, so I'm looking mostly at actual contenders by the PGA Championship odds when betting this market.
🌦️ Thursday's weather at Aronimink Golf Club
Here is Thursday's PGA Championship weather report from Accuweather:
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| 🌡️ Temperature | 66 degrees |
| 💨 Wind | 15 mph (30 mph gusts) |
| 🌧️ Precipitation | 55% chance (0.02 inches) |
| ☀️ Humidity | 48% |
It will be a cool and dreary opening round of the PGA Championship. Thursday's forecast calls for an afternoon high of just 66 degrees, and it'll be slightly below that for the morning wave. Though we have more than a 50% chance of some precipitation, the accumulation is expected to be minimal and should not impact play.
The main weather concern for Thursday at Aronimink Golf Club will be the wind. Consistent wind around 15 mph will persist from morning through the afternoon. Wind gusts will get up to 30 mph in the afternoon.
⛅ What to consider when trading on the first-round leader
The first-round leader market of any golf tournament is far different than wagering on the tournament winner or any prop market.
Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:
- Tee times
- Weather
- Course history
- Round 1 scoring average
- Recent form
- Key stats for the week
The first-round leader market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for tournament favorites are longer in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when trading on the 18-hole sample.
Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.
I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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