Fazio Canyons Course will host a PGA Tour event for the first time, and my favorite Austin Championship picks are headlined by Doug Ghim ahead of Round 1 on Thursday, Nov. 12.
Jordan Smith, Seamus Power and Kensei Hirata round out my weekly golf picks for the penultimate event of the 2026 PGA Tour Fall Series.
📇 Austin Championship top picks
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📊 Austin Championship odds
The Austin Championship runs at Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa’s Fazio Canyons Course in Austin, Texas, from Thursday, Nov. 12, through Sunday, Nov. 15.
| Golfer |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Jackson Koivun | 5% |
| Doug Ghim | 4.8% |
| Andrew Novak | 3.7% |
| Blades Brown | 3% |
| Chris Kirk | 3% |
| Jordan Smith | 2.9% |
| Pierceson Coody | 2.7% |
| Brian Harman | 2.7% |
| Zachary Bauchou | 2.4% |
| Johnny Keefer | 2.4% |
| David Ford | 2.2% |
| Marco Penge | 2% |
🔍 What I’m looking for at the Austin Championship
Tom Fazio designed the Fazio Canyons Course at Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa in 1999, winding through the Texas Hill Country in Austin. Following a comprehensive 2022 renovation, the Par-72 championship layout stretches to 7,451 yards.
The course features Bermuda fairways and fast, undulating Bermuda greens, and the topography is defined by notable elevation changes, mature Red Oaks, and the limestone-bedded Short Springs Branch creek comes into play on multiple holes.
Because of the dramatic topography shifts and forced ravine carries, Fazio Canyons is a strategic test that demands exceptional distance control. Players face significant uphill and downhill targets, making approach precision critical.
While fairways offer fairly generous landing zones off the tee, straying off-line exposes players to dense fescue, rocky ledges, or water hazards. Strong long-iron play and creative scrambling on the severely sloped green complexes will be rewarded.
It’s also notable that three of the four par-3s are 215 yards or longer, while none of the par-5s reach 600 yards.
Key stats
- True strokes gained tee-to-green, True strokes gained approach
- Adjusted scoring average, Par 3 scoring
- Scrambling / True strokes gained around-the-green
- Bogey avoidance
🏆 Austin Championship picks to win
Best bet to win: Doug Ghim
With six consecutive top-20 finishes while pacing this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and gaining in all five metrics, Doug Ghim’s game warrants attention this week. He’s coming off a T6 in the VidantaWorld Mexico Open and also finished solo-second in the Bank of Utah Championship during the run, after all.
- Course fit: Elite tee-to-green precision is an ideal fit for Fazio Canyon
- Recent form: Tops field in tee-to-green game during run of six straight Top 20s
- Key stat: Sixth in both birdie-or-better percentage and bogey avoidance in 2026
Outright pick: Jordan Smith
A T8-T16-T4 run with well-rounded play and ball-striking precision has Jordan Smith positioned to contend again this week. He’s first in the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the stretch and has two DP World Tour wins on his resume.
- Course fit: Proven winner's well-rounded game travels
- Recent form: Gained true strokes across the board during T8 last week
- Key stat: 30th in adjusted scoring average in 2026
💣 Austin Championship long-shot picks
Best long-shot pick: Seamus Power
A run of four consecutive top-25 finishes with a trio of Top 10s reinforces a spike in play from Seamus Power. He’s won twice on the PGA Tour and ranks 15th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fifth in putting during the four-event heater.
- Course fit: Tee-to-green play spiking to complement strong putting
- Recent form: Highlighted strong finishes and elite putting metrics
- Key stat: Eighth in field in true strokes gain on approach across past two events
Long-shot pick: Kensei Hirata
It’s been an impressive two-week run for Kensei Hirata with a T11 in the VidantaWorld Mexico Open followed by a solo-fourth in the World Wide Technology Championship. He has six worldwide wins on his resume and has gained true strokes across the board.
- Course fit: Current tee-to-green game and putting play everywhere
- Recent form: Gaining true strokes across the board during two-week surge
- Key stat: Ninth in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green the past two weeks
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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