The top 50 players on the DP World Tour will compete at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai this week, and my top DP World Tour Championship picks feature Spaniards Jon Rahm and Angel Ayora ahead of Round 1 on Thursday, Nov. 12.
Adrian Meronk and Ewen Ferguson round out my betting card of golf picks for the final event on the 2026 calendar.
📇 DP World Tour Championship top picks
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📊 DP World Tour Championship odds
The DP World Tour Championship is held at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from Thursday, Nov. 12, through Sunday, Nov. 15.
| Golfer |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 22% |
| Jon Rahm | 12% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 7.8% |
| Adam Scott | 5% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 4.9% |
| Eugenio Chacarra | 4.6% |
| Daniel Hillier | 3.9% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 3.6% |
| Matt Wallace | 3.1% |
| Angel Ayora | 2.3% |
| Patrick Reed | 2.7% |
| David Puig | 2.6% |
🔍 What I’m looking for at the DP World Tour Championship
Greg Norman designed the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai, and the parkland-style masterpiece has hosted the DP World Tour Championship since 2009. Stretching to a massive 7,706 yards, it’s annually among the most demanding tracks in the world.
The layout features Bermuda grass fairways and greens, with sand bunkers and deep red ocher bark mulch doing the framing. Jumeirah heavily favors elite distance off the tee and requires long-iron precision to attack the green complexes.
The dramatic finishing stretch also challenges players with risk-reward choices.
Players face an uphill, multi-bunkered par-4 15th with a guarded green, a strategic par-4 16th with a dogleg and lake protecting the right side, a 195-yard island green par-3 17th, and the monster par-5 18th featuring a snaking stream in the center of the fairway from tee to green.
Key stats
- True strokes gained off-the-tee, driving distance
- True strokes gained approach, proximity from 175-225 yards
- Par 5 scoring average, birdie-or-better percentage
- Bogey avoidance
🏆 DP World Tour Championship picks to win
Best bet to win: Jon Rahm
Jumeirah is Rahm’s playground. He’s won here in three of his five trips, with two more top-five finishes. Rahm also just won the Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship while gaining +1.99 true strokes on approach per round.
- Course fit: Proven winner on long and demanding courses
- Recent form: Elite ball-striking performance during win last week
- Key stat: All-time true strokes gained leader at Jumeirah
Outright pick: Angel Ayora
Pair Angel Ayora finishing T5 last week in the Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship with the T8 in this event last season, and the 22-year-old bomber gets my attention because his putting and approach play both spiked in Abu Dhabi.
- Course fit: Finished T8 here in 2025 with +1.73 true strokes gained
- Recent form: Carded 27 birdies during noted T5 last week
- Key stat: 10th in driving distance in 2026
💣 DP World Tour Championship long-shot picks
Best long-shot pick: Adrian Meronk
This will be the fifth trip to this event for the five-time DP World Tour winner, and Adrian Meronk has topped out with a respectable T7 in 2022. Meronk also heads to Jumeirah in excellent form with a win, T3, and T18 across his past four events.
- Course fit: Meronk boasts the distance and short game to score here
- Recent form: Results are peaking during highlighted four-tournament run
- Key stat: Tops field in true strokes gained putting through past nine events
Long-shot pick: Ewen Ferguson
With six top-25 finishes across his past nine events alongside ranking second in this field in true strokes gained off-the-tee and 13th in the tee-to-green metric, Ewen Ferguson is a long-shot target.
- Course fit: Fifth straight trip to Jumeirah with a T9 in 2023 on resume
- Recent form: Ball-striking spike has resulted in late-season surge
- Key stat: Second in field in true strokes gained off-the-tee across past nine events
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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