CD Newsletter Week 11

what's up, guys? i've been lurkin', but haven't found the time or energy to post much lately. i hope everyone is enjoying their football season. college went by way too fast and the nfl is getting worse every year. oh well, something is better than nothing. anywho, big d was nice enough to grace everyone with the newsletter. he asked me to copy and paste this for ya'll. hopefully covers doesn't fuck up the copy/paste too much and everything gets included. here we go - 

Jets at Pats  -11.5   43.5

Line has shot to -13.  Jets are lifeless but this is a division game on a Thursday where we’ve seen a string of dogs cover and win SU recently.  Maye now in the conversation for MVP and how the hell did Vrabel go unhired and literally land back in the perfect spot?  Treyveon finally getting an opportunity to show case what most fantasy owners drafted him for.  Only took 10 weeks.  We are getting into weather season so will have to monitor that in the next few days but I was impressed with the heart I saw out of NY’s D last week so if this somehow hits 13.5 or 14 I’d be inclined to take the points here.

Skins “at” Phins  -2.5   47.5

Played in God knows where at a time I won’t be awake for.  Look, I know Goodell is trying to go global and simp for the almighty dollar but I’ve had it with these early ass games that are essentially snooze fests.  Last week was decent but thats because the Colts are just plain fun to watch.  JT is having an unreal season but this isn’t about him.  Skins were extremely fortunate last season winning a ton of one score games and being “lucky” and as soon as everyone bought in to them and Daniels this year they disappoint.   It simply never fails.  ( see Minny from 2 years ago). Not sure how the McDaniel still has a job in Miami but they are at least showing some life and fighting hard.  Offense has looked efficient despite Tua throwing a pick or 2 in what seems like every damn game ( seriously if you are betting that you’re dumb ). And what an impressive effort on D against the reigning MVP.   Sorry CY.  I hate that this is played overseas otherwise I would be all over this over as a Table Max. Shout out Monte.  

Pack at Giants  +7   43.5

Line suggests Dart is out.  So, we get Russ maybe Crab boy.  Wouldn’t surprise me either way now that Dabol is gone.  Packers were crowned the best team in the NFC and legit Super Bowl contenders after 3 weeks. Now, is anyone buying into this team to legit compete for even a playoff spot?  If this continues I think LaFleur is on next coach to be fired watch.  Maybe a sprinkle there if you are so inclined.  Too many variables for me but Pack need a get right game against a mediocre defense and they just might get it here but OTR and in possible weather with a putrid offense it looks to be yet another Josh Jacobs day.  Lean full game under as well.

Bakers at Steinfelds  -5.5  48.5

Is there any other player in the league with less offensive weapons than Josh Allen?  Not sure what they are doing in Buffalo other than relying on him to be Superman and trying to win a SB cheaply.  Not gonna work.  But at home vs this Bucs secondary this seems like a get right spot against a team that likes to make back breaking turnovers at the wrong times.  This feels like a fun one that should be flexed to the 3pm or prime spot.  Still awaiting the status of Bucky Irving who I thought was coming back last week to help this much maligned run game for Tampa so I guess we’ll see.  We should see a bunch of points in this one even if the weathers bad.  As I type this I see 80% chance of rain and 40 ish degrees so expect a heavy Cook and Josh on the ground day.   So maybe temper those expectations and wait closer to game time.  BTW, if any of you guys can get kicking props ( longest FG made we’ve seen a bunch of unders lately now that longest lines are inflated to 51.5 and above ). Ive made a small fortune on these my bookie cut me off.  

Bengals at Steelers  -5.5   49.5

Bengals fresh off bye and Steel fresh off listless effort that showed the world the A Aron is old and Arthur Smith is done as an OC.  Its over.  Time to overhaul this offense completely.  But, for this week at least, they should look like world beaters because any team that plays my Cows D and or this Bengals D they seem to be able to look like legit contenders.  So, expect a monster game from Warren and I’m sure Rodgers will toss at least 2 TDs so ill be all over those props for this one.  It seems like the D is back to playing the way we’ve known them to play the last 2 weeks.  Not so much the first 8.  They have made a few moves before the deadline that seems to be working and it could be a long day for old man Flacco if he decides to hold on to the ball for longer than 3 seconds on Sunday.   Rain in the forecast for this one as well so wait and see.  Boswell o1.5 made kicks for me.  Lean under for the game ( hold your nose)

Texicans at Titans  +7   38.5

Titans off a bye with a few weeks for new play caller to install some shit. Will it matter against this Houston D?   nope.  Houston still missing Stroud with a concussion but might be back.  Don’t care.  I have zero interest watching this game so I won’t even try and break it down.  Next.

Bears at Viqueens  -3   49

Bears escaped a tough one last week but are now quietly winners of 6 of 7  ( shout out to the kids  IYKYK ) but now Caleb gets a blitz heavy Vikings team that will no doubt have him running for his/her life.  Division game that always feels close.  Swift is back taking carries away from Cream of Monangai whom everyone wants to see more of.  But, a pretty good 1-2 punch IMO with Calebs legs so I don’t expect a big day in the air for Odunze, Moore of Loveland.  Same goes for 9 on the other side of the ball.  I still will never understand what they saw in him coming out of college but they are stuck for now and you can tell Jefferson getting frustrated.  Lean under 49.

Panthers vs Falcons  -3.5  42.5

Ultimate revenge spot for Hotlanta after getting shut out by Carolina a few weeks back.  However, is there another team in the league more Jekyll and Hyde than the Falcons?  Pray if you decide to invest your money in this game even though London has been balling out. 15 for 222 and 4 TDs last 2.  Horn will have his work cut out for him but Penis likes to force balls his way so expect a pick or 2 if you like to bet those props ( I do ).  Low total for this one has me scratching my head and the kicking game for Atlanta has been a revolving door so I expect them to go for it a ton on 4th.  ( maybe a prop bet on that as well if you can find those on DK or FD.  I know they offer all types of exotic shit ). As for Carolina, the only bright spot lately has been former Cow and unappreciated Rico so expect a heavy workload there.  Lean over for the game and Falcons to seek revenge.  

Chargers at Jags  +2.5   43.5

2 way out for year. Not a huge loss as he’s been a pretty big disappointment based on where he was drafted and did anyone see the utter disgust in Cohens face after Lawrences performance last game?  Seriously, how do you lose that game?  Not a ton of positives coming out of Duuuuuval lately yet the books hang this tight as line against LAC that gives me some pause.  I know LAC has their OL issues but who on Jax scares you?   Earlier in the year they were living and dying by the turnovers and now those have dried up and they are who we thought they were.  Maybe Getty or Icon can offer more insight as to why this line feels trappy.

more to come tomorrow

Banned posters carrying the newsletter...amazing stuff

3pm games

Hawks at Rams  -3   48.5

Huge division game here.  Both teams sit 7-2 and rolling.  The first of 2 so you’d expect a split here with each team winning at home but can’t discount what Seattle has done on the road this season but thats not sustainable.  Run game still a big problem for Seattle and its evident in the 2H of games.  Could be a lingering issue later in the year if this team truly wants to contend.  JSN a beast and we’ll see how Shaheed can fit in with this group but Horton looks to be a nice find.  What more can be said about the Rams?  They are firing on all cylinders and the MVP talk for Stafford is heating up and rightfully so. Getting an insanely talented and veteran WR in Devante was a perfect fit for a win now team.  Defense is young and hungry and I pretty much expect LA to win every time they take the field from here on out. Maybe Detroit in Dec.  Its square but lean Rams minus the points.

Niners at Cards  +2.5   48.5

It feels all the Niners contract situations are bubbling to the surface and this team is just simply meh.  Shanahan can only mask it but it feels like that whole team is gonna look way different next year but as for this season they have def played way over their head and are coming back to a harsh reality. On the other side of the ball it aint any better.  So, somethings gotta give.  Give me the team off the embarrassing loss at home.  

Ravens at Brownies  +8   40

How much longer are we gonna be subjected to dink and dunk Gabriel?  Who are we kidding, no one watches them anyway.  But, on the other side of the ball theres a reason the oddsmakers still had the Shrimp favored to win the north even after their 1-5 start.  Schedule is cake and they are getting healthy and I fully expect them to continue winning.  A couple of bright spots on the Cle offense in Judkins and now Jeudy after they came out and said they need to utilize him more.  It just won’t be enough and I expect a win for the Shrimp but maybe they don’t cover.  No way I’m touching this one.

will update with the rest after work

Amazing. 

Nice work boys 

Agree on the car/atl total...assuming u will see this D

Chiefs at Broncos  +3.5   44

Another big division game with a lot of implications.  Broncos currently sitting atop the AFC West at 8-2 but what looks like a fraudulent 8-2 and the Chiefs starting to look like the Chiefs so this one is huge for where these 2 teams want to end up the rest of the year.  Broncos get a bye after this one and the easier schedule so a win here would be massive.  With that bye, they can rest up and hopefully get Surtain back. Chiefs still relying heavily on backyard football.  I swear they don’t even call plays half the time, its just Patty running around and waiting for guys to get open.  Initial lean here would have to be the Broncos with that lovely hook but isn’t that what they want us to think?  Weather doesn’t seem to be an issue for this Sunday so give me Lutz/Butker to go over their longest FG prop.  Likely set around 52.5 and I can only imagine that hook disappearing before the weekend.

Lions at Iggles  -2.5   46.5

Can the Lions put up back to back strong showings OTR?  That eagles packers game is still fresh in everyones minds and the total set accordingly.  Tush push bullsh and Campbell going for it on every 4th and short should cause long drives but still lean to points in this one.  Eagles with the non existent pass game but against the lions D you’d think you would see a better effort through the air.  Not much to say on the Lions side other than this team just continues to have meaningful drives that result in points and can carve you up in so many ways.  Did anyone see when Campbell called that play to J Mo and immediately pumped his fist because he knew it was a TD?  The confidence this group has is through the roof and its fun to watch.  I don’t know this line doesn’t go anywhere but closer to a PK by kick.  Lean Lions and under the Field Goal prop.  Elliot blows and Lions just simply don’t kick.

Cows at Raidazz  +3.5   50

So, cows off a bye and get the dysfunctional mess that is Vegas.  In the dome the cows offense “should” be able to name their score.  They need to get that AZ taste out of their mouth.  Seriously, how do you lose to them and watch that same team get destroyed by seattle.  Just goes to show you how bad this team truly is but on offense = elite.  Go figure.  We get Overshown back, another game under Clowneys belt and Wilson as well.  The defense simply trying to go from god awful to can we hold our opponent to 23 or under to get this win.  Might work here against Vegas.  Normally id play Geno to throw pick but our DBs have stone hands so ill lay off there.  If your book offers “ prop builder “ as most locals I’ve seen do, I would consider parlaying BTTS o19.5 in this one parlayed with something else to eliminate the juice.  Should be at the very least a fun entertaining Monday night distraction.  

Thats all I got and thank you Baztid for posting for me.  Go Nutz gents.

that's all she wrote, fellas. props to d on the excellent write ups! if i don't talk to ya beforehand, have an amazing holiday!

Good stuff, ODB and Big D. 

Good to see you around, as well!

Amazing!! Guys are showing me skills that could come in handy. I know now how contraband gets moved in here. You just gotta know the right people. Let's have a great week!!

All of those look like fleshlight participants

Very good on the newsletter fellas.....I'm still trying to remember which big d this is...in my infinite old age of forgetfulness, have we met? 

And

Do you like Cabernet?  

@ABooksNightmare

 https://www.covers.com/forum/penalty-box-41/some-interesting-info-regarding-the-prop-market-and-motivation-103806576

@undermysac

 Oh yea, quite fond of BigtittieD...

Now I know who this is 

And yes, I never got a response as to why he was wiped clean from the cloud...

You know when you get that warm feeling in your trousers and then realize, oh yea, that's what's up...that's what happened here...

@ABooksNightmare

 If I remember correctly, he got into it with Brooklyn capper. It could of been excessive use of emoji's

Are you fucking kidding me 

For emojis.....since when is that a thing....so, let me get this straight, the site offers emojis for posters to use but then banned someone for using them....what kind of Canadian proxy is that...I'll bet this is why the site is getting 504 and 404 errors...

Can we get some clarification in here on this because this sounds about the stupidist thing I have heard on this site in the last hour....and that's saying a lot....

Can we get a mod check please...aisle 13 has some liquid that needs esplanning

Off a 3-5-1 last week in pro...

YTD: 31-32  

Here is what I am on tonight:

New York +13

Jest/Patriots Over 42.5

Thursday Night Potluck Under Jamboree continues today...this is a blind bet with no thought, rhyme or reason so will be looked at all on it's own....

YTD: 5-5

Jets/Patriots Under 42.5 

Good luck Nation...ba bip 

@ABooksNightmare

Smart plays. By betting the over *and* the under on the total you don't stand to lose much; only the vig. 

@iConsciousness

 The Thursday jamboree plays are not my plays but an under system we are keeping an eye on for thursday games only...as stated, there is no thought put into those plays as they are an automatic play on the under and that record is kept by itself and I do not wager on these plays unless stated so above...

My plays are above that, and yes, I am going opposite of the automatic thursday under play as I see points in tonight's game.....

Hope that clears it up for you