All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

phixer's nfl week 5

...
Participants:
Search
Views: 114627
Posts: 536
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 4174
Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by Cappincrunch77:

No.  If Washington is winning or even covers the 1H spread it is likely the pre game line will be much lower, the books will likely set a line that would require atl to not only come back but, go on to cover some type of winning margin.  So phixers theory is spot on, especially when getting 5:1 on your money on an outcome that has proven to work 50% of the time.  In this case we anticipate even slightly better odds of it happening. 

correct me if I'm wrong phix

i said spot on but i did not mean that the line for a second half will be as high as for the game at the beginning if the skins win first. it all depends on margin of win at the first half by the skins if!!!
if skins will win 1h by 3 the line will most probably for the second half only be falcons -6.5 in case we would be invited to bet atlanta only to lose and -7.5 if it is a straight game or invitation to pound skins
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 4174
Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by Cappincrunch77:

 

... So I understand EV and the big picture on our double outcome BUT... I took IND+5 and OVER 41 in a parlay???

"but how can a guy who knows what hes doing make such a foolish bet" you ask?

-demons- lol

first of all i dont ask anything
second - if you win - you know what you're doing, if you lose - youre just another loser
demons - we all have them . i agree
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 4174
Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by joeflaccid:

Hey Phix, i'm on the same boat as you tonight. I was siding with hou but from my sources some sharp money came in on Ind last and you know we must follow the sharp money.  I was wondering what your insights were ?
my only insight was and is what i said about week five and on ats records begin to factor. no team with 0-4 ats will stay such.

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 4174
Posted: #154
Quote Originally Posted by K-Hal:

That was an odd penalty overturn they didn't announce to the stadium.  
the oddity whatever extreme - is on our side
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 110
Posted: #155
I've been lurking lately because the drama and nonsense is just too much. 

That doesn't mean I haven't been keeping up to date.

Nice work tonight, C.

Thank you.  Keep up the good work. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2014
Posts: 2197
Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

my only insight was and is what i said about week five and on ats records begin to factor. no team with 0-4 ats will stay such.


great job tonight, you were spot on with the 0-4 ats.  I look forward ot this weekend. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 4174
Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

NFL Week 5: TNF  HOU Texans vs IND Colts

This is a 5 Units Play

IND Colts +5  -110  550$


win +500$
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 4174
Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

NFL Week 5: TNF  HOU Texans vs IND Colts Totals

This is a 5 Units Play

Over 40.5  -110  550$


win +500$
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 4008
Posted: #159
I have a huge man crush on BLB
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2674
Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

NFL Week 5: TNF  HOU Texans vs IND Colts

This is a 5 Units Play

IND Colts +5  -110  550$




Thank you.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 4174
Posted: #161
22-18 nfl  +2770$
5-0 ncaaf  +3000$

overall football this season  +5770$

on a 5 game winning streak, so that should end soon. have no doubt. tread carefully
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 4174
Posted: #162
and yes - did i mention that the money management is the key? yes, i did. and i'm saying it again
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2015
Posts: 231
Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

22-18 nfl  +2770$
5-0 ncaaf  +3000$

overall football this season  +5770$

on a 5 game winning streak, so that should end soon. have no doubt. tread carefully

 

Great job today! Took the Colts!

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2012
Posts: 2409
Posted: #164
thanks phixer
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 4174
Posted: #165
vegas is very happy today. especially with washington winning 17-12 over usc. 9 out of every 10 dollars was on usc ml, 7 out of every 10 dollars was on usc -16.5 and -17. and 7 out of every 10 dollars was on over 56 to 59.5 in totals.
do you understand the numbers? what was "expected" and how far it was from happening? 
yeap. college football too
and no, i did not bet on this game anything
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2009
Posts: 6854
Posted: #166
Great call phixer and always great mood i am with you in your way to see vegas and the betting industry
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2009
Posts: 6854
Posted: #167
they made money cause they want to fool us with their lines and the way they gave to us the pre-game
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 46
Posted: #168
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2015
Posts: 19
Posted: #169
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

NFL Week 5:
TNF  HOU Texans vs IND ColtsThis is a 5
Units PlayIND Colts +5  -110  550$
win +500$


Thank so much for your pick. Always looking for your pick b4 the game??
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2006
Posts: 187
Posted: #170
Way to Phix Thursday, Sir.  I took Colts for each half, as well.  GL this weekend
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2014
Posts: 615
Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

vegas is very happy today. especially with washington winning 17-12 over usc. 9 out of every 10 dollars was on usc ml, 7 out of every 10 dollars was on usc -16.5 and -17. and 7 out of every 10 dollars was on over 56 to 59.5 in totals.
do you understand the numbers? what was "expected" and how far it was from happening? 
yeap. college football too
and no, i did not bet on this game anything

Baseball also. Jays just played their first playoff game since 93, and lost as a -240 favorite at home today. The same thing with the Royals at -130. May as well also throw in the other two home teams losing both of their wild card games earlier this week. Vegas raked. It's obvious that the odd makers do set fake lines based on public perception, not on what they think the true odds are. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 143
Posted: #172
These so called fake lines are also called "scare lines"


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2011
Posts: 3875
Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

and yes - did i mention that the money management is the key? yes, i did. and i'm saying it again


Phixer you are talking that money management is the key but i want to ask you something ? I noticed that your record in NFL is 22-18 and you are + 2770 $ which would be impossible if you had flat bets (you don't use that method of course). So i want to ask you what would happen if you lost most of your 10 units plays and won more of your 3-5 units (you know that everything could happen in sports betting and you are never safe that your "more" units or best plays will hit more than the others.) You can easily be 22-18 and minus 2770$ with such type of MM. My thoughts are that if you have big enough bankroll (maybe u have according to your thousand dollar bets) you always can chase with some play when the balance goes red but imagine you have smaller bankroll. Do you think your MM is really recipe for everybody here cause i'm not sure. Splitting the bets on 2,3,5 and 10 units could bankrupt every 52.4%+ bettor if he plays with more than 0.5% of its bankroll as an unit (in that case 10 units will be 5%). I think we can start interesting discussion here.

However Best of Luck. Keep the good work here. Would like to here your thoughts on my post.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 143
Posted: #174
Phixer about your Detroit Lions +3  play,

How pathetic is that??
I have never seen a more poor pick. I will be betting Arizona, and stop harming us with your brutal picks. Arizona will blow Detroit off Forbes field.
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 1160
Posted: #175
Hey Phixer Great Job  Thanks for your insight to these games   
The media fill everyone ones heads with Hassleback was going to crawl onto to field....  He was so sick   Great Pick 
All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 Genius Sports. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.