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phixer's nfl week 5

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UHQB

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Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 3072

Posted: Oct. 9, 2015 - 9:32 PM ET #201

Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

NFL Week 5: CIN Bengals vs SEA Seahwaks

This is a 10 Units Play

SEA Seahawks +3 -110 1100$

I've agreed with most of your picks but Cincy is one of best plays of the day. Look at all the turnovers that Wilson has had so far. Add his sacks in to the equation and you have a disastrous line and a subpar offense. Include the travel time back east and this sets up a Cincy win by 7 or more.

phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Oct. 9, 2015 - 9:54 PM ET #202

Quote Originally Posted by UHQB:

The Bengals are one of my favorite teams to bet on. Over the years they have produced for me more spot plays than any other NFL team. The Seahawks are one of the teams I really don't like. Because of the ref biases and them beating time after time till they made up for it and made me the money for all the previous losses when they defeated the Broncos in the Superbowl. And this Sunday - I expect them to make me money again. Why? How?

We were handed a mind game convincing us the Seahawks are at their worse now and since they have miraculously escaped the home loss to pathetic Lions - they must have a very little chance surviving high powered Bengals. The Seahawks are up against two 4-0 teams in the next two weeks. The Bengals week at Cincinnati and the Panthers at home the week after. And here comes again the ATS trick I was telling you this week and used it to win the TNF bet on the Colts: the Bengals are 4-0 ATS while the Seahawks are 1-3. We are going to see those numbers balancing a bit after Sunday as we will have 2-3 ATS Seahawks and 4-1 ATS Bengals. I am not even going to watch the game and not because I'm full of vanity - no, I will have better games to watch than this as the cover here for me is in a high probability. And you know why I am so self confident? Because the Bengals have a game in Buffalo the week after and if they will go there 5-0 ATS - they will not cover there and I will have triple this bet over there on the Bills, and if they miraculously cover again in Buffalo and become 6-0 ATS going into a bye week - the next game will be awaiting them in Week 8 is a pivotal game in Pittsburgh. Vegas will not have much to gain by then because everyone will be on the Steelers realizing the Bengals can't go forever winning ATS and therefore Vegas will not allow that to happen and the Bengals will lose ATS beforehand. In short - there are no limits as long as you have the money what can you do tripling your bets on a team that is either 4-0 or 0-4 ATS, because the juice is a less factor knowing that by tripling your previous bet each time - you can easily make money as long as you are disciplined and manage your money well.

So, you've been warned. If you do not have the discipline or the money to follow the narrative above - stay out of this bet.

Quote Originally Posted by UHQB:

So, you've been warned. If you do not have the discipline or the money to follow the narrative above - stay out of this bet.

EastsideBangers

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 10667

Posted: Oct. 9, 2015 - 10:01 PM ET #203

Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

So, you've been warned. If you do not have the discipline or the money to follow the narrative above - stay out of this bet.

I agree 110%

On Seattle as well

Banging since 1983

Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

So, you've been warned. If you do not have the discipline or the money to follow the narrative above - stay out of this bet.

I agree 110%

On Seattle as well

phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Oct. 9, 2015 - 10:16 PM ET #204

NFL Week 5: NY Giants vs SF 49ers

The Giants are my substitute for the Rangers when there is no hockey. And precisely as the Rangers - there are two kinds of the seasons with those teams: you either hit the jackpot and they win it all when you least expect it from them, or they are douching around the whole season torturing you for year after year burning your money a year after year.

Guess which of the two this season smells like. The Giants played couple not so bad games and right when you entertain yourself with the thought that you might trust them again - kaboom.

So, even pathetic Niners are too good not to cover given 7 points because it doesn't matter what the score will be entering the fourth quarter - the Giants will make sure to kick the bucket.

BTW, here too we have ATS battle. 1-3 Niners vs 3-1 Giants. That means that even if this game produces 4-1 and 1-4 instead of more balanced 3-2 and 2-3 - we will have a shot at both team's next week following our code system.

This is a 5 Units Play
SF 49ers +7 -110 550$

Philly0

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Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 3299

Posted: Oct. 9, 2015 - 10:21 PM ET #205

Phixer are you still playing Detroit with all their injuries?

Philly0

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Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 3299

Posted: Oct. 9, 2015 - 10:23 PM ET #206

Oh and are you gonna have some college picks tomorrow? Great Thursday night picks btw.

1TimeLucky1

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Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 3038

Posted: Oct. 9, 2015 - 10:40 PM ET #207

Phixer, Im sorry some of this is redundant but i tried to post on 365 but to no avail. My lazy a$$ just cut and paste....

Phixer really appreciate what you do, been and avid listener for a few years. I believe Mavins thread was when i first recognized the talents. There have been a few good ones come and get run off y the likes of covers. Speaking of such, do you still communicate with vagaswikileaks? He was hot last year. And I recall an affiliation in some way.

In regards to this game, I see your reasoning, what it reminds me of is a martingale fade of the bengals ats. I dont disagree with the logic but at the beginning of the week I bought em on the money line. Since it is possible to play hawks on spread i can middle it would you buy out of the ml wager. Do you see hawks winning outright or just trying to capture the situation of the ats trend?

Thanks, 1timelucky1 on covers.

phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Oct. 9, 2015 - 10:56 PM ET #208

Quote Originally Posted by Philly0:

Phixer are you still playing Detroit with all their injuries?

i always stick to my guns. once i bet - i forget

said it million times

phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Oct. 9, 2015 - 11:00 PM ET #209

Quote Originally Posted by 1TimeLucky1:

Phixer, Im sorry some of this is redundant but i tried to post on 365 but to no avail. My lazy a$$ just cut and paste....

Thanks, 1timelucky1 on covers.

if you read what i wrote - you must have noticed that i do not cap that game in cincinnati football wise so i have no idea if the seahawks will win outright or only cover.

Dogjimbo

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 17492

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 12:11 AM ET #210

BOL this week, Phixer. Nice call on Indy.

GoldMine9

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2015

Posts: 12

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 2:01 AM ET #211

snowman76

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 8383

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 10:01 AM ET #212

Hey Phix, long time, you like anything in college?? ill have an nfl card up later, tough goin against cinci at home

Irish1986

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 111

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 10:10 AM ET #213

Following everything can't wait to see what's in store for college today. Good luck

theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 12180

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 10:26 AM ET #214

Quote Originally Posted by UHQB:

Wilson has 2 int's, 6th best in the league. Wilson has 3 fumbles.

INT's have a high prediction value going forward.

Did you know if you were to bet the team better at fumbles you'd lose over time ?

Fumbles have no predictive value. NONE.

Info by-itself is useless, understanding how to use info properly is what gives it value.........................................

phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 11:17 AM ET #215

we will know soon enough who is right and who is wrong. i also provided with the whole strategy which no one seems to relate at all regarding seattle at cincinnati game.

im-a-unit

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 687

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 11:18 AM ET #216

Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

Quote Originally Posted by 1TimeLucky1:

Phixer, Im sorry some of this is redundant but i tried to post on 365 but to no avail. My lazy a$$ just cut and paste....Phixer really appreciate what you do, been and avid listener for a few years. I believe Mavins thread was when i first recognized the talents. There have been a few good ones come and get run off y the likes of covers. Speaking of such, do you still communicate with vagaswikileaks? He was hot last year. And I recall an affiliation in some way.In regards to this game, I see your reasoning, what it reminds me of is a martingale fade of the bengals ats. I dont disagree with the logic but at the beginning of the week I bought em on the money line. Since it is possible to play hawks on spread i can middle it would you buy out of the ml wager. Do you see hawks winning outright or just trying to capture the situation of the ats trend?Thanks, 1timelucky1 on covers.

this is third time i am being asked about santino (vegas wiki leaks). santino is in military. after passing all the test and getting the contract - he's in a seal's booth camp now and we all are proud of him and hope he doesn't drop in one of the 12 drop stations before he becomes.....if you read what i wrote - you must have noticed that i do not cap that game in cincinnati football wise so i have no idea if the seahawks will win outright or only cover.

So your not handicapping the game your just playing the law of averages. With this way of thinking, wouldn't you want to fade your next college football pick also. Aren't you 5-0 ATS in college?

aznnotorious

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 639

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 11:39 AM ET #217

Hey phixer Are you Post college in this page or college page?

zappanut

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2003

Posts: 3530

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 1:06 PM ET #218

Nice work as usual Phixer....I am still doing my homework for tomorrow ( I am sure you are happy for me lol).. Have a great weekend..

walleyetime

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 15

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 1:51 PM ET #219

Where do I find phixers collage picks? Thanks

phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 1:53 PM ET #220

Quote Originally Posted by im-a-unit:

this is third time i am being asked about santino (vegas wiki leaks). santino is in military. after passing all the test and getting the contract - he's in a seal's booth camp now and we all are proud of him and hope he doesn't drop in one of the 12 drop stations before he becomes.....if you read what i wrote - you must have noticed that i do not cap that game in cincinnati football wise so i have no idea if the seahawks will win outright or only cover.
So your not handicapping the game your just playing the law of averages. With this way of thinking, wouldn't you want to fade your next college football pick also. Aren't you 5-0 ATS in college?

i'd suggest to go back to the school and complete all the classes you must have missed. once you've done that, please take a quick course at the covers how to quote the text you're commenting on. the next step would be a quick online text comprehension courses available almost at every learning online site. and then go back and read what i wrote.

if you can't differ between the vegas interest not to have one sided winning or losing ats teams, and between my interest to win each bet - then my friend - you better find a day time job and leave the handicapping to the grown ups

walleyetime

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 15

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 2:18 PM ET #221

Phixer whats your thoughts about Green bay they have beat the spread 4 times should we go with St louis?

magiccarpetride

All-Star

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 10120

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 3:29 PM ET #222

Phixer, I almost always follow you, but I can't put my money on Krappernick, or is it Sackandpick, or is it Kapernick? This guy is NOT a smart player. He can't see the entire field, he is very narrow sited, he can NOT run and offense, he can't read a defense, and I I'm, sure that SF will never again go to a playoff with him as QB.

So Im' putting my money on the Giants at -6.5, but half a point as insurance. First time I will go against one of your picks.

Again, thank you for all you have done for us with your picks. Have made money because of you. Thanks again!!