My guess on the super bowl line movement, some history....

I am thinking about hedging some of my Saints to win it all bet at 15-1 ... Thinking about teasing Colts to a pick with over... As I do not see either teams defense slowing down the other. I would prefer to try and play some propositions as that is what I usually do with the Superbowl

Good read and Good luck Van

More like 10 to 12 at any given time.

GL - but if the colts win and it goes under you lose everything including your future bet....

If you really want to hedge out of the future bet you would bet 10.84 units on the Colts ML (assuming -210) which would lock you in at 4.16 unit profit.....

GL

Great stuff Van

the over hype after both games is exactly what Ive been telling my friends.  N.O. played like crap and set themselves up to be a bigger underdog than they really are.

Perception is always 1 week old in the NFL

Saints are the underdog for the first time this year?

SAINTS WIN STRAIGHT UP!

I will take the best line / price option available.

For instance....

+7 -115 is better than +6 EV
+6 EV is better than +5 +105
+5 +105 is better than +4 +110.....

Just some examples - but I will take the best line / price option I can find.

If you like money, just bet the under on the highest total ever posted for the SB. Hopefully it goes higher and it should. Look at the discrepency between the playoff totals for the Colts and Saints games. Both in domes. Now on grass and neutral this total in hugely inflated. Saints helped this happen with their score fests in the home dome. This is on grass and a few drives turn into field goal attempts and it goes way under. This game my fly under anyway. I would normally lean towards the over when the total is high because the public will lean under but not on the SB and in this case the total is mathematically way too high. Total should be around 48 tops. Straight bet on the under and Colts win this game. If I bet a side I'll bet the Colts money line at -200 or less. I ain't layin' more than a field goal with the fav here but the Colts will get it done. Peyton's a freak and they have the better D.

For Saints backers keep this in mind. As public a team as the Colts are they still have a significantly better ATS record even with the Jets and Bills games factored in. This can't be overlooked. Peyton has a ring and he got it on the SAME field. Grass hurts the Saints offense MUCH more than the Colts and only helps the Colts D. I like the under more than any other play but I do see the Colts manufacturing a militant style 10+ point victory. The Saints were finally exposed as vunerable in THEIR DOME and they will bring this same team to the SB. The Colts have another gear to shift into and again, they have the better D. Colts 31-17.

You are betting 2 bets.  You should get the best price on both bets.  The mistake is combining the 2 bets and looking at one outcome - that will make you pay more for the bets - just like hedging - people look at hedging as one bet, when in reality it is 2 separate bets.

I wont pay a premium to cover the bet a t exactly +4.

+7 -115 is better than +6 EV because given those 2 choices on an NFL game, your expected value would be better with the +7 longterm.

The only variable here which could be debated is how much a point is worth - but going from 6 to 7 - I dont think anyone would make the argument that that is not worth 15 cents.

I have said this before, but the line itself is only half of the equation.  There is a price on every line and that price / line COMBINATION is what makes one option better than another.

My point above is that I will take the best PRICE / LINE COMBINATION that I can find on the saints.

Blue -

I assume you mean the Saints +7.5 -137....

That is actually a very good price.  MB has the Saints at +7 -136, pinnacle at +7 -141, so 7.5 at -137 is very good.

I will say this without giving my personal opinion..... If you have the colts at -3 -105, and you have the Saints at +7.5 -137, you have VERY good (if not the best) numbers on both bets.  So IF you were inclined to middle this game, you have done about as good of a job as possible.

Quote Originally Posted by Bluefin:

Nope -105 -3 Colts/ +7.5-137 colts. Van my question was meant to be how much do you value the extra 32 dollars vig on the Saint as opposed to points.How many points do you take away by your thinking from the 7.5 by the differnce in -137/-105. I have not made the play on the Saints yet(not sure it's still up) was trying to figure real value first. I really think the Colts win this game but as I have mentioned in  before in past threads I am a sucker for middles(I admit it) and number wise this looked like a possible good chance but the extra juice put me back some. Thanks for you time and comments Van. 

This is how I would answer you....

Your Colts -3 -105 bet is significantly better than fair current market value (-5.5 -105).  Using -5.5 -105 as PAR, your Colts bet (using my numbers, but I dont think you will see opinions that are much different) in current value terms is about -3 -155ish.

If you were able to get Saints +7.5 -137, I would say that is better than current market value, but not by as much as your Colts bet.  Using -5.5 -105, a current market value on your Saints bet would be +7.5 -148ish.....

So that being said, I think your Colts bet is a little bit better than your Saints opportunity - but I BELIEVE IN BETTING ALL VALUE BETS AT ALL TIMES - and I think you have value on both.

If all you did was bet the Saints +7.5 -137, you would be able to sell that for at least what you paid for it, and I would think you would get at least a nickel more as profit.

You cant link these two bets.  Its a common mistake to think of the outcome as being a singular event, and combine the bets.  A similar example is in craps - if you bet on the 6 and 8, they are 2 different bets - but people like to combine them and say "either 6 or 8 against the 7" when in reality you have 2 decisions to make - "do I bet the 6, and do I bet the 8".

I hope that makes sense....

Thanks Van

Esplande Don't know you bro.I see you been on here a couple of years. Exactly what is your point are offering -3 at +105 that would be the best I've heard and  you are correct you can not get that rate at present it moved very quickly from  +7.5 at137 to 140 and now to 160.I like to imagine it as fishing at various depths of water.Check the covers line moves for 5 dimes and you will see what is charted and times I know many do not feel they are accurate and they may be right but I have always found them pretty close.I will tell you that is was NOT my jaws biting on the hook this time as perhaps I was too slow on the draw getting old I fear.I am not sure the fluctuations are any where near over as mega bucks takes mega movement and the one thing we are all sure of is this will be a megabucks event.What I find interesting is I did not observe the counter movement that you apparently have found as the play I made of -3.5 at -105 I thought was decent value I also detect a sluggish response on the ML to any of the current spikes in the number..... I may still take some more bait but right now it's not me biting but someone must be.

BOL Van Thanks again