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My guess on the super bowl line movement, some history....

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Posted: #176
I sure hope your right... i wish i had gotten this line at colts -3
 
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Posted: #177

Quote Originally Posted by MR1NUT:

This game has all the makings of a Colts blow out. The Saints are overratted at this point in the season. Thier only here because of Farve's mistake! I see the Colts winning this one easy. Peyton is going to but on a clinic!! Colts by at least 7.

 

i thought you said colts blow out?  if you think they win by at least 7 then your talking 1 possession.  if your going to talk a big game, then grow some nuts and say they win by more than that.  if you really think they win by 7, then dont call it a blow out.  get real!!!!

 
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Posted: #178
what do you think of the over in the first half and the total game?
 
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Posted: #179

Quote Originally Posted by flabroker12:

what do you think of the over in the first half and the total game?

I dont have any thoughts.

I wont have a penny on this game for kickoff, I made money on the way up and the way down - I probably wont even watch the game.

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Posted: #180
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I dont have any thoughts.

I wont have a penny on this game for kickoff, I made money on the way up and the way down - I probably wont even watch the game.



rolling laugh
 
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Posted: #181
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I dont have any thoughts.

I wont have a penny on this game for kickoff, I made money on the way up and the way down - I probably wont even watch the game.



Vanzack,

I have read through you threads many many times and I have to admit they motivate me to dive back into my probability and statistics books from college again.  If you don't mind answering a few questions and I apologize if you already answered one of both of them.

1. When you are guaranteeing a profit on the game I assume this is because the line you first bet, let's say Colts -4 (-115) is lower or higher then the value of the 2nd (or 3rd or 4th...) let's say Saints +4 (+120) bet that you place BUT does not cross the line in which you could loose both bets, meaning the point spreads would not overlap into a situation (what some people would consider hedging).  So if you found yourself in a situation where both bet's COULD win that would just be icing on the proverbial cake.  Am I with you?

2. Is line movement similar to this situation you found in the superbowl possible during regular season and if so can you do it with 1 betting exchange (matchbook?) because I do not know or do not have access to another as I am located in the USA.

I appreciate your time in responding and you have definitely opened my mind in regards to sports betting, instead of looking for a team in the right position, look for lines in the right position to change one way or the other and take advantage.

If I am way off, let me know and anything else in this vein of though is also appreciated.

Take care...
 
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Posted: #182
Line is still 5.5 at one place in Vegas, the Tuscany.  Cal Nevada to those that don't know,  I have Indy -3 -115 for 5k and Saints +6 for 10k. I think the saints are a great play in this SB. GL to all
 
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Posted: #183
i took the AFC -3.5 about a couple months ago and over 43.5 So, I'm sticking with that
 
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Posted: #184

Quote Originally Posted by dlicht:



Vanzack,

I have read through you threads many many times and I have to admit they motivate me to dive back into my probability and statistics books from college again.  If you don't mind answering a few questions and I apologize if you already answered one of both of them.

1. When you are guaranteeing a profit on the game I assume this is because the line you first bet, let's say Colts -4 (-115) is lower or higher then the value of the 2nd (or 3rd or 4th...) let's say Saints +4 (+120) bet that you place BUT does not cross the line in which you could loose both bets, meaning the point spreads would not overlap into a situation (what some people would consider hedging).  So if you found yourself in a situation where both bet's COULD win that would just be icing on the proverbial cake.  Am I with you?

2. Is line movement similar to this situation you found in the superbowl possible during regular season and if so can you do it with 1 betting exchange (matchbook?) because I do not know or do not have access to another as I am located in the USA.

I appreciate your time in responding and you have definitely opened my mind in regards to sports betting, instead of looking for a team in the right position, look for lines in the right position to change one way or the other and take advantage.

If I am way off, let me know and anything else in this vein of though is also appreciated.

Take care...

He is not telling how he makes money. If it is your way or if he books a bet that he gets 2 bets at said moneyline and passes them  on at a higher line. THus each cancel each other out except for the moneyline change from 110 to 120  on which he makes 10% on both bets.

Either way he is not telling. He just wants everyone to know he did it. BRAVO Van...

Mpostly he is just sitting back waiting on someone to bitch about him not posting how he did it so he can pounce on them for wanting to know his business. But I am not going to do that. VAN is THA Man !... he has figured out a way to trick us all.

 
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Posted: #185
back to waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay earlier in this thread van was sayin he thought the line should be a heavy 3 or light 3.5 if you think the game is gonna be as close as a fg there is a prop for the game to be decided by exactly 3 pts at +425. as for what van does i dont think its really that complicated. he is buying and selling bets like stocks. its just like day trading he may buy on and off the same bet 3 or 4 or 5 or more times during the day if there is sufficient line movement. if you can lock up 5 or 10 cents on every trade it doesnt take long to get your bet in severely discounted or a total freeroll. it takes a lot of time stuck to your computer though cuz you gotta be quick with your moves or you lose your edge
 
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Posted: #186
Quote Originally Posted by kcobra:

Saints are the underdog for the first time this year?

 

SAINTS WIN STRAIGHT UP!


And that's what makes the line what it is. If Saints win this, the line would have been a field goal at best. But since this is the first time they've been plus points, it's about right.
 
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Posted: #187

Quote Originally Posted by dlicht:



Vanzack,

I have read through you threads many many times and I have to admit they motivate me to dive back into my probability and statistics books from college again.  If you don't mind answering a few questions and I apologize if you already answered one of both of them.

1. When you are guaranteeing a profit on the game I assume this is because the line you first bet, let's say Colts -4 (-115) is lower or higher then the value of the 2nd (or 3rd or 4th...) let's say Saints +4 (+120) bet that you place BUT does not cross the line in which you could loose both bets, meaning the point spreads would not overlap into a situation (what some people would consider hedging).  So if you found yourself in a situation where both bet's COULD win that would just be icing on the proverbial cake.  Am I with you?

2. Is line movement similar to this situation you found in the superbowl possible during regular season and if so can you do it with 1 betting exchange (matchbook?) because I do not know or do not have access to another as I am located in the USA.

I appreciate your time in responding and you have definitely opened my mind in regards to sports betting, instead of looking for a team in the right position, look for lines in the right position to change one way or the other and take advantage.

If I am way off, let me know and anything else in this vein of though is also appreciated.

Take care...

Let me try to answer....

1.  I bet the Colts at -4 -105ish on Sunday for 1 unit.  I bet the Saints +4 +117ish on Saturday for 2 units expecting the line to go down, and if it didnt I would keep the extra as a wager.  I can sell (and will sell) my 1 unit left on the Saints by betting the Colts at -4 (right now I can get about -106).

2.  Taking advantage of line movement like this is possible on any game in any sport.  Of course a game like the SB has some advantages - big wagers wont move the line - and you will be able to have enough liquidity to sell any wager you want.  But I do this a TON on MLB - it is a great sport to start with.  If you bet at a site like MB, you just need little line moves in your favor to make money.  I have written about my MLB strategy many times here.

GL

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by Pipe-Light:

He is not telling how he makes money. If it is your way or if he books a bet that he gets 2 bets at said moneyline and passes them  on at a higher line. THus each cancel each other out except for the moneyline change from 110 to 120  on which he makes 10% on both bets.

Either way he is not telling. He just wants everyone to know he did it. BRAVO Van...

Mpostly he is just sitting back waiting on someone to bitch about him not posting how he did it so he can pounce on them for wanting to know his business. But I am not going to do that. VAN is THA Man !... he has figured out a way to trick us all.

What are you talking about?  Are you serious?

How much more can I actually tell about how I did this?  Lets see.....

1.  I make a thread when the line is -4.  I say the line is going to go up to -6, and I say I bet the Colts at -4 with the intention to sell.  I also say it will come back down to -4.

2.  The line does go up to -6.

3.  The line does go down to -4.

What the hell are you saying?  How am I "tricking us all"?

Please explain.  Im dying to know how an 8 page thread exactly predicting the line movement isnt good enough for you.

 

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #189

Quote Originally Posted by misfits:

back to waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay earlier in this thread van was sayin he thought the line should be a heavy 3 or light 3.5 if you think the game is gonna be as close as a fg there is a prop for the game to be decided by exactly 3 pts at +425. as for what van does i dont think its really that complicated. he is buying and selling bets like stocks. its just like day trading he may buy on and off the same bet 3 or 4 or 5 or more times during the day if there is sufficient line movement. if you can lock up 5 or 10 cents on every trade it doesnt take long to get your bet in severely discounted or a total freeroll. it takes a lot of time stuck to your computer though cuz you gotta be quick with your moves or you lose your edge

Bingo.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #190
I think what Van is trying to tell us is that Chelsea will win the Superbowl
 
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Posted: #191

Quote Originally Posted by Ace77:

I think what Van is trying to tell us is that Chelsea will win the Superbowl

Actually, I like ManU.

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Posted: #192
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Actually, I like ManU.




Noticed yesterday at Pinnacle that Man U was +150 to win the EPL outright with Chelsea at -110 with Chelsea currently two points clear on the table,,


April 3rd clash between Chelsea/Man U all important,,



 
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Posted: #193
Great thread, Van.  I really think that the main problem SOME have with your thread is they just don't get it.  One important point to make is that most cannot do this with their local book.  For example, if I had jumped on Indy at -4, then I would have Indy -4 at -110.  When the line moved up to +5.5 or +6 I would only get that at -110, thus only giving me a chance at winning the middle or losing the juice on both.  You have to do this ONLINE and have access to multiple line/odds to do what Van does, unless your local does this.  I think some people miss the fact that each bet/investment has a line, and odds attached to that line.  If I wasn't too paranoid about cashing in big money illegally online, then I would be doing the same thing all year long.  Nice work Van.
 
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Posted: #194
Quote Originally Posted by PUCKOFF:

   If I wasn't too paranoid about cashing in big money illegally online, then I would be doing the same thing all year long.  Nice work Van.

There is nothing illegal about betting online. As long as you pay taxes on your winnings, you can cash a million dollars every week if you wanted
 
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Posted: #195

Quote Originally Posted by PUCKOFF:

Great thread, Van.  I really think that the main problem SOME have with your thread is they just don't get it.  One important point to make is that most cannot do this with their local book.  For example, if I had jumped on Indy at -4, then I would have Indy -4 at -110.  When the line moved up to +5.5 or +6 I would only get that at -110, thus only giving me a chance at winning the middle or losing the juice on both.  You have to do this ONLINE and have access to multiple line/odds to do what Van does, unless your local does this.  I think some people miss the fact that each bet/investment has a line, and odds attached to that line.  If I wasn't too paranoid about cashing in big money illegally online, then I would be doing the same thing all year long.  Nice work Van.

He sells his Bets ??? To WHom ???

 
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Posted: #196
Quote Originally Posted by Pipe-Light:

He sells his Bets ??? To WHom ???

As posted above....  and throughout this thread....

 I bet the Colts at -4 -105ish on Sunday for 1 unit.  I bet the Saints +4 +117ish on Saturday for 2 units expecting the line to go down, and if it didnt I would keep the extra as a wager.  I can sell (and will sell) my 1 unit left on the Saints by betting the Colts at -4 (right now I can get about -106).

Anybody can sell a bet.  You simply bet the other side.  What dont you get about this?

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #197
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Let me try to answer....

1.  I bet the Colts at -4 -105ish on Sunday for 1 unit.  I bet the Saints +4 +117ish on Saturday for 2 units expecting the line to go down, and if it didnt I would keep the extra as a wager.  I can sell (and will sell) my 1 unit left on the Saints by betting the Colts at -4 (right now I can get about -106).

2.  Taking advantage of line movement like this is possible on any game in any sport.  Of course a game like the SB has some advantages - big wagers wont move the line - and you will be able to have enough liquidity to sell any wager you want.  But I do this a TON on MLB - it is a great sport to start with.  If you bet at a site like MB, you just need little line moves in your favor to make money.  I have written about my MLB strategy many times here.

GL



Appreciate the response, using your numbers I am still confused, assuming you sold your remaining unit on the Saints at Colts -4 (-104) then you have 220 on Colts -4 @ -104 and 220 on Saints +4 @ +117.

If this is the case then if Colts cover you would loose $8.42, if the Saints cover you would profit $37.40, but that is not guaranteed profit?

I am sure I am missing something obvious, who wants to point it out and I will put the dunce hat one?
 
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Posted: #198

And BTW - I made a VERY small amount of money on this compared to the average covers poster.

From what I read here, the average bet on the SB is about 10K.  Some bet 200K, and others cash out their 401K, but almost everyone bets at least a few thousand.  I wont have anything on the game, and made just a little north of a couple of grand on this, so I really cant compete with the average covers poster.

So why all the hostility towards me?  I fly under the radar here now that I am a square.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #199

Quote Originally Posted by dlicht:



Appreciate the response, using your numbers I am still confused, assuming you sold your remaining unit on the Saints at Colts -4 (-104) then you have 220 on Colts -4 @ -104 and 220 on Saints +4 @ +117.

If this is the case then if Colts cover you would loose $8.42, if the Saints cover you would profit $37.40, but that is not guaranteed profit?

I am sure I am missing something obvious, who wants to point it out and I will put the dunce hat one?

Lets just take a simple example....

1.  I bet 105 to win 100 on the colts -4.

2.  I bet 200 to win 234 on the Saints +4.

3.  I bet 118 to win 112 on the Colts -4.

If the Colts win, I win 12 (200 lost, 212 win) and if the Saints win I win 11 (234 won, 223 lost).

That is a very simple illustration, but should get across the point.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
 
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Posted: #200
pezeveng & k cobra!
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