All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

My guess on the super bowl line movement, some history....

Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 22155
Posts: 230
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 60080
Posted: #226
Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane:

vanzack - Hope you realize that i wasn't bashing you then.

Just wanted to direct these comments to the folks trying to decipher the line and line movements:

 1) All this talk about the spread and none of it mattered.

2) Seriously, seven pages of indefatigable banter for naught.

I didn't read at least 5 pages of your Super Bowl wagering onslaught on the books -- so in honesty, all i gathered was that it was a lesson on how to make $2000 by pilfering a 2-point margin amongst the books.

 

You are beyond help.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 60080
Posted: #227

Quote Originally Posted by Day-trader1:

covers.com is a joke.. why even bother vanzack? unless you are paid to post... i've been here almost as long as you have... so why?

Im not paid to post.  Im just a fucking moron who is very bored and has very few social outlets to discuss gambling.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2002
Posts: 11129
Posted: #228
i see... good luck with that...

Day-trader1 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 1090
Posted: #229

the line went up, then back down.....congrats on predicting that correctly.......truely amazing stuff

so you worked some offshore books for 2 weeks to walk away with what?  float 75k in multiple offshore accounts to bring home 2k? minus whatever these bullshit books are charging you to get your money out?

another useless thread

 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2008
Posts: 173
Posted: #230
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Lets just take a simple example....

1.  I bet 105 to win 100 on the colts -4.

2.  I bet 200 to win 234 on the Saints +4.

3.  I bet 118 to win 112 on the Colts -4.

If the Colts win, I win 12 (200 lost, 212 win) and if the Saints win I win 11 (234 won, 223 lost).

That is a very simple illustration, but should get across the point.


Van,

I read this entire thread and thank you for your input. Very informative...Still have a few (maybe simpleminded) questions if you have a minute since I have never bet line movements:

1. What is the formula for how you came up with the last figure of 118 other than 'brute force' for maximum EV? The only reason I ask is because this is the simplest example and I'm sure that many bet combinations can lead to a 'where am I at?' scenario that you simply plug into a formula. (The first bet you bet what was necessary to win a unit, the second bet you bet 2 units...the 3rd?)

2. What happens if your predicted line movement doesn't pan out?

 Let's say the line opened at -4 and you predicted it would get to -6 (which did happen). But on the first monday after the Conference championships, both Reggie Wayne and Freeney, who could both be worth a point in my eyes respectively, get injured in practice and are a definite 'will not play' status, and it keeps the line pinned at 4 for the entire 2 weeks leading up to the game? Do you A), ride out a bet (you may have 20K, 50K, or 75K on) on a game you previously stated you had no interest in betting and did no research capping just a few hours after the previous weekends games ended? Or B) bet the other side and immediately lose approx. 5% saying you bought in at -105. That seems to be a big hit (i.e. on 20k it's a $952 loss) given all the work it takes to get a small but guaranteed return on a large sum of money. 

Thanks in advance
All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.