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My guess on the super bowl line movement, some history....

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Legend
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Posted: #1

Line opens at Colts -4.

I think this line will go up for the next 12 days or so, and then be bet back down the last 2.

This is almost always the case in the SB.....

If you like the saints, you might get 6 if you wait it out....

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Posted: #2
Do you like the Saints?
 
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Posted: #3
who you like Van?
 
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Posted: #4
i do. ill wait it out...
 
All-Star
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Posted: #5
I got down on the over 56.   It goes up every year and with these two wouldn't be suprised to see 59 minimum by game time.
 
Legend
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by yuice20:

who you like Van?

Not sure yet - but 6 is too much....

4 is probably too much.

I tell you one thing, I wont be on the colts.  I might not be on the saints either, but Im not laying 4+ with the colts on this game.

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Legend
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Posted: #7
I think you will see 6 widely tomorrow...
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Captain
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Posted: #8
I really beileved the line would open at -6 if the Vikes won and -3 if the Saints won. Giving the Saints a lot of respect. But -4 is almost spot on.
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
As I hit submit its at -4.5 now
 
Captain
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Posted: #10
I am looking right now and I could get Saints +6 (-115) or Colts -6 (+100) if I wanted to.
 
Legend
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by CheezeStack:

I really beileved the line would open at -6 if the Vikes won and -3 if the Saints won. Giving the Saints a lot of respect. But -4 is almost spot on.

Im not really commenting on what the line SHOULD be, just what I think it WILL be.....

Remember - this is a SB.  Line behaves a little bit differently than a sunday game in October...

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Captain
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Posted: #12
Nice analysis and I agree with your projections. I have a side I like though, I'll be on the colts. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13

gone from -3.5 to -5

 

and -170 to -210

 

in 12 minutes at 5 dimes

 
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Posted: #14
Colts will shred that Saints D. They are not very good! Minny had huge advantage in yards and time of possession. They just gift-wrapped it for the Saints.

The Saints O showed nothing in the 2H. Brees looked like McNabb in that SB. He was not confident. He looked scared.

And I was rooting for him and for them. So I'm not hating.

Indy -4 and over 56 is my strong play. Indy hasn't faced a good Offense so Saints will put some up. But I can't see Peyton getting less than 37 against this Saints D.

GL
 
Legend
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Posted: #15
I actually saw (I'm almost sure) Colts -2.5 vs. Saints before the Saints game.  It was -3+105 vs. Vikings.  Both at Greek.  FWIW
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #16
5 Dimes at the ML at -155 less than 5 minutes after the game.

-210 now..how nice is that?


 
Legend
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by depeche2:

I actually saw (I'm almost sure) Colts -2.5 vs. Saints before the Saints game.  It was -3+105 vs. Vikings.  Both at Greek.  FWIW

You did see this....  I saw it too.

The current line is the typical overreaction to a game where the average fan thinks the saints dont deserve to be there because they got seriously outyarded and won on turnovers and coinflip.

It is a great setup to get extra points in the most public game of the year....

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Posted: #18

I am playing the total.. I don't care who wins.

 
Legend
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

5 Dimes at the ML at -155 less than 5 minutes after the game.

-210 now..how nice is that?


Yeah - I think you will see 6 soon, and you will probably see 4 by the gametime...

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Posted: #20
Up to 5 now....probably not done climbing
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Legend
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

The current line is the typical overreaction to a game where the average fan thinks the saints dont deserve to be there because they got seriously outyarded and won on turnovers and coinflip.

Yep.  And on the flip side, don't take into account the Saints played Favre and Warner, while the Colts played Flacco and Sanchez

I'd kill for 7, but 6 will be just fine

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Legend
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by webba:

Up to 5 now....probably not done climbing

Yeah, 5 to 6 is a hop rather than a jump - will be there soon IMO....

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Covers Referee
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by webba:

Up to 5 now....probably not done climbing


ticked at 5.5....lol
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Hall of Fame
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Not sure yet - but 6 is too much....

4 is probably too much.

I tell you one thing, I wont be on the colts.  I might not be on the saints either, but Im not laying 4+ with the colts on this game.



You think this is no more than a 3 point game??
 
 
MVP
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Posted: #25
I already took +4.5 -104

Just too much in the Super Bowl in what should be a tight game. The dogs have covered 6 of the last 8 Super Bowls including 3 times in which the fav won by 3 or 4 but didn't cover.
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