Posted:
#176
NJ Porky
2nd half NY -6.5 O/U 23
what will it be Thanks
0
2H betting system - 10/12/2008
Posted:
#181
Looks good, NJPorky... I'm surprised that the totals don't improve in CFB with the higher middle. Looks like they actually performed worse! 
Last week was my first week actually playing these games in CFB... didn't play the pro games, though. I think you're definitely on to something here.
Last week was my first week actually playing these games in CFB... didn't play the pro games, though. I think you're definitely on to something here.
0
Posted:
#182
Quote Originally Posted by NJPorky:
That's a total of :
YTD: 19 - 7
Win %: 73%
Units: +11.3
So every time their is a 10 point middle or more, just take whoever was tha favorite befor the game started.....Interesting as I think this might be the way to go in the NFL as these are paid professionals compared to the young college players....
I like to see you came to your senses PPorky. Please give credit where credit is do since I came up with this "Hybrid" system last week. Please read the post below that was posted in another one of Porky's threads from 10/9.
Quote:
Porky, read me last post and it explains exactly how you are winning/losing so far this year. You lose the games where you decide to take the dog when you should be taking the favorite.
Quote:
In the first 5 weeks, the favorite has "lost" 10 or more points for the game a total of 17 times. If you continued taking the favorite for the second half, you would have went 11-6 (65%) (which is what you have been doing). Now on the flip side, the games where the favorite was losing at half and received a 10 point discount on the game line was much more successful. There were a total of 6 games so far this year that fell into that situation and the results were 5-1 (83%).
After getting a better understanding of your system, it is statistically successful to stay with the favorite for the 2h when there is a 10 point "discount" in either direction (this is what you have been successful on so far this season bc more games fell into this situation).
You seem to be missing the strategy of taking the favorite when losing at halftime and getting a 10 point or more discount (83% success rate).
I did very well last season using the discount method on the o/u's for ncaa fb so I expanded the study this year to find a winning system for spreads for nfl and ncaa.
So again, after research and getting a better understanding about both systems, we both would have a better winning % if we incorporated a bit of both.
The games that would have lost in my system were the ones when I would have taken the dogs in the 2h when getting a "discount" of 10+ when in fact , I should have jumped on the favorite to contiune to beat on the dog.
The games that would have lost in your syetm were the games where you stayed with the dog for the second half when the team getting the discount was the favorite of 10+ and the favorite ended up winning the 2h bet.
So the hybrid sytem (yours and mine) says to bet the favorite in the 2h whenever there is a 10 point "discount"/"middle" for either of the teams. Either the Favorite will continue to pound the dog (supposed to happen) or the favorite will make a comeback in the 2h and cover the spread (expected to happen),
so stop being such a box and listen to what I am saying. and if you continue to be a little fbitch about it, i hope others that read this use it to their benefit and make a few bucks.
0
Posted:
#183
Quote Originally Posted by NJPorky:
Also notice that is dosen't change much of the plays cause to have a 10 point middle one of 3 things have to happen:
1) the favorite is blowing the underdog out, already covering the game line and we look for them to continue this in the 2H
2) the underdog s hanging around and keeping the game close even though they are a double-digit underdog, thus we would now belive that the favorite who finally start to pull away from a team they are clearly better than
3) the underdog had a great first half and is winning outright at the half, thus now we would believe that hell the better team has to make adjustments and they will now come back in the second half and either win the game and cover or atleast come back to cover the 2H line
These are very interseting findings...I still love my original system in the NCAA but in the NFL I really like this idea of taking the favorite in the 2H every time there is a 10 point middle....really makes alot of sense to me....
what you guys think??????
Wow......looks pretty familiar Porky!!!!
Last week you were calling me a moron, etc., now this system is making sense. Let me hear you say who presented this method first....I'll be waiting...
0
Posted:
#186
Quote Originally Posted by Rounders550:
Wow......looks pretty familiar Porky!!!!
Last week you were calling me a moron, etc., now this system is making sense. Let me hear you say who presented this method first....I'll be waiting...
Great... starting a pissing match. That's exciting.
Why don't you stop bitching and add something constructive to the conversation, if you're going to post something?
0
Posted:
#188
Quote Originally Posted by bigirondawg:
Great... starting a pissing match. That's exciting.
Why don't you stop bitching and add something constructive to the conversation, if you're going to post something?
Great... starting a pissing match. That's exciting.
Why don't you stop bitching and add something constructive to the conversation, if you're going to post something?
as you can see, I had very constructive posts last week, only to have porky say how stupid i was. Now he is posting messages about this "tweaked" system. he was just being stuborn and didn't want to learn anything. I'm glad others in here had their ears open though.
0
Hot Forum Topics
