Posted:
#1
Not sure if NJPorky plans on posting these this week, but I'll go ahead and start the thread to track the system for NFL games. NJPorky first posted about this system for NCAA games, and it's had a good track record this year, so we'll see if it holds for NFL games, too.
I suspect that NFL won't follow the same pattern, but that's why we're tracking it.
Ultimately, the point of this system is that when the difference between the game spread and total lines and the 2H spread and total lines are more than 10 points, that creates a large middle that is attractive to many bettors. The system assumes the middle won't hit, and bets on the side that will cause you to miss the middle.
To put it another way, what this means is that in a game that has a high total but a low-scoring first half, the total will usually be set pretty high for the second half, assuming that the teams will "catch up" to the whole-game total number. If that middle is at least 10 points, the system would say to bet on the 2H under, since that would be the bet that would cause the middle to miss.
I think this works well in the college game because it's primarily a "momentum" play on the game, but in the NFL, you've got professionals who know how to overcome momentum and make comebacks... you just have closer games overall.
I'm just more skeptical about how well this will work with NFL, but we're tracking it, and we'll see!
The system may sound confusing, but once you see a few write-ups, it should be easier to understand.
I suspect that NFL won't follow the same pattern, but that's why we're tracking it.
Ultimately, the point of this system is that when the difference between the game spread and total lines and the 2H spread and total lines are more than 10 points, that creates a large middle that is attractive to many bettors. The system assumes the middle won't hit, and bets on the side that will cause you to miss the middle.
To put it another way, what this means is that in a game that has a high total but a low-scoring first half, the total will usually be set pretty high for the second half, assuming that the teams will "catch up" to the whole-game total number. If that middle is at least 10 points, the system would say to bet on the 2H under, since that would be the bet that would cause the middle to miss.
I think this works well in the college game because it's primarily a "momentum" play on the game, but in the NFL, you've got professionals who know how to overcome momentum and make comebacks... you just have closer games overall.
I'm just more skeptical about how well this will work with NFL, but we're tracking it, and we'll see!
The system may sound confusing, but once you see a few write-ups, it should be easier to understand.
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