2H betting system - 10/12/2008

PORKY-

I have a way to play the totals instead of what you're doing now, and need to know where you pulled historic 2h lines from (for the previous recorded total plays)

Guys,

We may be on to something.  I ran a back test of the "7-10-15" method toward the beginning of the season.  I can plainly see the differences in the numbers from the first three weeks of the season and the second three weeks.


Using Porky's system, here is what I have come up with for the first three weeks of the season (sides only)

7-point middle:  15-6
10-point middle:  11-3
15-point middle:  4-1


Here are the numbers for weeks 4-6 this season, with the SD game included (sides only)

7-point middle: 11-11
10-point middle:  5-7
15-point middle:  3-3


Total YTD stats are as follows:

7-point middle:  26-17 (home 14-12, road 12-5)
10-point middle:  16-10 (home 10-7, road 6-3)
15-point middle:  7-4 (home 3-3, road 4-1)

Not much to write home about.  But notice the road teams appear to do much better when the home team cannot seem to make the middle.  From the stats, it appears that the larger the middle, the harder it is for the home team to achieve this middle.




Earlier in this thread, I wrote about an idea I wanted to try.  How would qualifying teams with this system fare when the 2H spread was a TD or more (+/- 7 or higher) regardless of the size of the middle.  This is interesting.

10 such occurrences have happened this year where the 2H line was 7 or greater.  If we played all 10 games, we would have gone 9-1 this year.  There appear to be 1 or 2 such games per week.  Here are the results.

WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND (WIN)  - middle 8.5
WK 2 - TEN -7 @ CIN (WIN)  - middle 7
WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG (WIN)  - middle 9
WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE (WIN)  - middle 19
WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN (WIN)  - middle 5
WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD (LOSS)  - middle 16.5
WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL (WIN)  - middle 9
WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL (WIN)  - middle 2.5
WK 6 - DET +7 @ MIN (WIN)  - middle 7
WK 6 - STL +7 @ WAS (WIN)  - middle 8

Road teams are a perfect 8-0 using this modified system!!  Again, that is most likely because the home team is having a horrible day, fall behind early and cannot get in the groove in the second half to catch up.  If we put the stipulation that the middle must be at least 10 points, then we are only 1-1 YTD.  This may be something to keep in the back of our minds.... Also note, not all plays are on 2H dogs!!  


Recommendation, for betting action, only play road teams even at the 7-point middle and consider all games in which the 2H spread is over a TD.  Those two criteria alone would be 21-6 YTD. 

Another thought is to put a unit system in place (1 unit on the 7-pt-method road teams, 2 units on the 10-pt-method road teams, 3 units on the 15-pt-method road teams, and 3 units on the 7 point spread-any-middle-method).  Doing that would have netted us +43 units.   

Let it sink in... Good night all!  See ya soon and happy betting! 

Great post Kangy. We were definitely on to something. Repost this tomorrow when more of our posters are on. This is great stuff!

Hey, I made a boo boo in calculating the units because somehow I combined all three scenarios, not remembering that the records are cumulative.  See below.

If we played the road >15-pt theory at 3 units, we'd be (4-1, +8.7 units)

If we played the road >10-pt theory at 2 units, the additional teams picked up at the 10-pt level are 2-2...(to go 6-3)...  -0.4 or +8.3 overall units)

If we played the road >7-pt theory at 1 units, the additional teams picked up at the 7-pt level are 6-2...(to go 12-5)...  +3.8 or  +12.1 overall units)

We would only be +12.1 units YTD, but still a nice chunk of change.


On Sunday, we only had two road teams qualify (STL and DET) in the 7-9.5 range (+2.0 units on the day).  We also had four home plays.  Of those, ATL was a loser at the 7 point level (-1.1 unit), while 2 of the other three (TB and SD) won at the 10-pt level (2-0, +4.0 unit) and IND won at the 15-pt level (1-0, +3.0 unit).  We happen to do very well on all teams this week, but as a whole I think we should be looking at road teams. 

I do not want to make things too complicated here.  So out of respect for Porky, I will not fill up his thread with this info.  I will either start one under the "Systems" forum or post a blog in my myspace area.  I will see you all later! 

kangy    

Good stuff.

Long time lurker here...  I have been watching and following your system.  I use some of the same theories that you incorporate.

 

I agree totally on taking the favorite no matter what.  I also believe you will find that in college the results are also favorable taking only the favorite.  Thanks for all of your time and effort working on this

That is correct....in the NFL we would only take the favorites befor a game starts....if we took the favorites in every single game there is a 10 point middle it would have changed only 6 bets all year....thus the record of the system changes from 17-9 to 19-7....cause in most situations we are already on the favorite because more times than not to get a 10 point middle the favorite is beating the underdog and already covering the game line at the half......this happens a hell of alot more than an underdog winning outright at the half and presenting a 10 point middle.....I think this slight tweak could make the system even more profitable in the NFL.....I have really bought into that tweak and this is the new system I am going to use going forward in the NFL.....

What are we doing with SIDES in the NFL?? Are we gonna just stick o sides?

FYI:

my mistake:

 the loss was on the Patriots in week #3 against the chiefs

and the other loss was week #1 Colts vs Bears

those are the only 2 games we would now have lost if we change the system to only taking the favorites....

 

 

Guys just went back to look at my spreadsheet of results of all system plays in CFB and the change to 15 points on totals dosen't really help or hurt.....there are 28 total bets that fell into the 10 point middle system and that ssystem is 17-10-1....now of those 28 plays how many were 15 point middles or more?....20 of the 28 were 15 point middles or more, with a record of              11-9.....wow...that means totals in CFB that were middles between 10 and 15 points were 6-1-1!!!! So it dosen't look profitable to move the totals to 15 points instead of 10.

I also went back to look at all the results in CFB and how many times we took the underdog in the game....

We had 35 games which fell into the 10 point middle system in CFB for sides and the system produced a 19-15-1 record. Of those 35 games we took the underdog in the game in the 2H 17 times and those 17 bets produced a record of 9-7-1. So changing to always betting the favorite in the games in the 2H like we are doing in the NFL dosen't seem profittable!

Thus from now on we will use the new "TWEAKED" sides only NFL system and keep the same old 10 point middle system for both sides and totals in CFB...

No when a point middle is present between the original game line and the 2H line.....

for example:

Giants are -7.5 for tonight

If they are up 21-0 at the half and they make the Giants -2 for the 2H we have a 15.5 point middle. That menas there are 15 points the game can land on for you to hit both Giants -7.5 and Browns +2(2H)...Giants can win by 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, and 22 points and you win boths bets! That is the middle.... 

I have no idea we just started tracking this system week #5 in the NFL and since I can only get 2H side lines of past games I have no idea what the record is in the NFL...but if you go back and look through this thread and my NFL 2H thread from last week and I'm sure you can get the record for all totals plays for the last 2 weeks in the NFL....and then you could break them down between 10 and 15 point middles....