Trust the Chase - Year Long Thread

Appreciate your efforts! Anything can still happen but doesn’t look good for us! Much respect!  The chase is over! Sadly! 

@Prof66HBK

 I hate to give up on the chase here, but just can't afford to do a $10.5k wager on the next game, and certainly not a 31.5k wager the game after that lol.

I'll switch to the 8 game chase model moving forward so I don't have to abandon this entire thing. 

After all.. It IS a consistent winner over 8 years from 2019-2012 when using the 8 game model. It's just SUPER boring. Game 1 wins are $1.40 wagers..lol. But hey, I gamble to try to win. That's all its about to me. I like the numbers, math, spreadsheets. It makes the games more interesting to watch.

Winning > all for me.

Sure will be interesting to see if a game 7 over, or a game 8 under would've got us the win here with Miami but.. just can't afford it :/

@arakias

 I here you! I you know will happen when we don't play them......

Miami fails the chase. I'll be swapping all of my wagers to the 8 game method starting tomorrow, including active chases.

Todays Selection #4

Warriors/Nuggets UNDER

Warriors are a game 4 play on the UNDER for 27 units

Total currently sits @ 225.5

Todays Selection #5

Pacers/Blazers OVER

Pacers are a game 1 play on the over for 1 unit.

Total currently sits @ 228

I've swapped to the 8 game chase, with WAY lower betting structure. It's the safer approach.

If anyone's curious...

Orlando/Celtics OVER - Orlando is on Game 1, Celtics are on Game 2.

Mavs/Bucks OVER - Mavs are on game 2, Bucks are on Game 3.

Hawks/Jazz OVER - Hawks are on game 1, Jazz are on game 2.

With the old betting structure, I would've had $288.06 on the line tonight. Low, even by our old standards. With the new safer approach, I'll have a total of... drum roll.... $32 on the line.

Boring? Yes... Safe/slow? Yes... Proven winner from 2012-2019 following this method? Yes.

Rockets/Spurs OVER

Rockets are game 1, Spurs are game 3. Total units to risk is 10

Pistons/Heat OVER

Total units to risk on the EIGHT GAME method would be 738 (remember, a unit for me would be $1.60)

I will not be playing the Heat for 729 units... I'm waiting for their "eight game" chase to finish before I start betting that team again.

Pistons are a game 3 play for 9 units.

Hawks/Blazers OVER

Hawks are a game 2 play, Blazers are a game 1 play, total units to wager is 4.

I trusted the process . Missed the over on Miami at 216 but still took it at 218. Of course it wasn’t for 730 units

$ on heat over 218

@BEER247

 The 8 game chase... get that $$$ 

Knicks/Celtics - NO ACTION

Bulls/Mavs - OVER - Mavs are a game 3 play. Total to risk - 9 units

76ers/Thunder - OVER - 76ers are a game 1 play. Total to risk - 1 unit.

Jazz/Nuggets - OVER - Jazz are a game 3 play, Nuggets are a game 1 play. Total to risk - 10 units.

Pelicans/Kings - OVER - Pelicans are a game 1 play. Total to risk - 1 unit.

Pacers/Clippers - OVER - Pacers are a game 2 play. Total risk - 3 units.

With the 8 game chase method, and the Heat going OVER last night, you'd be up 657.12 units on the system. Now for me, that would only be $1.60 per unit, which is the number I chose so that if I ever had to bet a game 8, it was capped at exactly $3500. Currently, by squeaking out small win after small win (until last night), you would be up $1052.02. Not terrible for only ever posting 1 wager all year that was more than $129.63. Every team EXCEPT the Heat so far have completed their longest chase by game 5 which is $129.63 with the 8 game method. Miami would've hit a game 7 last night, which is a $1166.67 (or a 729 unit wager). That's where the new numbers come from.

If you have any questions about the 8 game chase, or what the units are for each game, how it works, etc, just ask. I'm happy to break it down in full.

8 game chase, currently 93-0 on the year.

46 chases completed on game 1.

23 chases completed on game 2.

8 chases completed on game 3.

13 chases completed on game 4.

2 chases completed on game 5.

1 chase completed on game 7.

The old 6 game method would've experienced its first loss on game 6 for the Heat, thus why I'm switching to the 8 game method. Much slower, much lower betting amounts, but much safer. Far less volatile.

Mavs move to game 4, Jazz move to game 4, Denver moves to game 2.

Pelicans complete the chase on game 1 for +0.91 units, Pacers complete the chase on game 2 for +1.73 units.

Bankroll now stands at +659.76 units, the chase is 95-0 on the year.

Todays Action:

Magic/Knicks - OVER - Knicks are on game 1 of the chase for 1 unit.

Cleveland/Washington - NO ACTION

Twolves/Hawks - OVER - Hawks are on game 3 of the chase for 9 units.

Pistons/Heat - NO ACTION

Spurs/Blazers - MIXED ACTION - Spurs are on game 4 of the chase for 27 units, Portland is on game 2 for 3 units.

Suns/Grizzlies - OVER - Grizzlies are on game 1 for 1 unit.

Mavericks/Raptors - UNDER - Mavs are on game 4 for 27 units.

Bucks/Nets - UNDER - Bucks are on game 4 for 27 units.

Rockets/Bulls - OVER - Rockets are on game 2, Bulls are on game 1, total units to wager is 4.

Warriors/Lakers - OVER - Lakers are on game 1 for 1 unit.

Knicks move to Game 2. Orlando starts the chase after the under.

Spurs are on the under, Blazers on the over by the way.

Grizzlies move to game 2, Bucks move to game 5, Spurs go to game 5.

Portland completes the chase on game 2 for +1.73 units, Dallas completes the chase on game 4 for +11.55 units, Rockets complete the chase on game 2 for +1.73 units, Chicago completes the chase on game 1 for +.91 units.

Total bankroll now +675.68 units. Chase is now 99-0 on the season.

Still got the Lakers left tonight to hit the 100-0 mark on the 8 game chase method.

Lakers complete the chase for +0.91 units. 

Bankroll now stands at +675.78 units.

8 game chase is 100-0.

@arakias

 Amigo a few questions if I may.

What do you want mean by 8-game chase is 100-0?

did you reset the bankroll when switched from 6 game to 8 game?

You were crushing on the 6 game, yes, moved sideways a bit for a few days but up significantly, what spared the move to 8 game?

Have you switched between 6 and 8 games multiple times a season before?

@Titusblink

 This is my first time ever putting the system to use. I saw a thread here on Covers for college football that mentioned that since 1982, there had only been ONE team to ever start a season UUUOOO. Meaning if you bet EVERY team on a 6 game chase the opposite of that, OOOUUU, you would have only ever lost the 6 game chase one time.

I started back testing that against other sports, starting with basketball. I created a spreadsheet for every year from 2009-2019. The 6 game chase was winner in the long run, but VERY volatile. It would have seasons where it lost 25k, and seasons where it won 25k, but in the end, was very profitable. I don't know about you, but I can't afford to lost 25k. So, my goal was twofold. 

1) Limit the number of game 6 losses.

2) Limit the maximum amount of money I can lose each season.

So I thought to myself, "If I made the chase longer, what's the best combination of OU, UO, OO, or UU to add to the 6 game chase to make it an 8 game chase. The answer, looking back at game 6 losses, was OU. It made 52 out of 67 game 6 losses become winners on game 7, or 8. This means there WAS still a game 8 loss 15 times from 2009-2019.

On the 6 game chase, this was my betting pattern.

1-3-9-27-81-243

For me, I started with one unit being $14.40 on the 6 game chase. The reason for this, was that it made the game 6 play ($14.40*243) $3500. The maximum amount I ever wanted to risk on a game. As we saw this year though... we experienced a game 6 loss BEFORE a game 6 win, and that REALLY hurt my bankroll. It's not something I can sustain. I can't afford to risk another 2 or 3 game 6 losses, especially when the 6 game method has had REALLY bad seasons before.

The 8 game chase, is 1-3-9-27-81-243-729-2187. If I make one unit = $1.60, this makes the game 8 play $3500. The chase gets extended two more games (8 instead of 6), and the bets become MUCH smaller in the beginning. This makes it to where we aren't having any $25,000+ seasons, but the most the 8 game method would have EVER lost in one year was like $5k. It was even MORE profitable than the 6 game chase though, in terms of how many winning or losing seasons it had. Less losing seasons, more winning seasons, just for smaller amounts.

Is it boring to bet $1.60 on game 1? Yes. But it makes game 4 plays $43.21. Game 5 plays $129.63. And game 8 plays ARE still $3500, there's just VERY few of them. The game 6 chase lost this year on Miami... but if you were playing the 8 game chase (OOOUUUOU), it hits on game 7. We avoid the HUGE loss, and win on a 729 unit bet ($1,166.67 for me). 

It's slower and safer is the bottom line.

@Titusblink

 Sorry, forgot to answer two of your other questions.

1) I didn't "reset" the bankroll when I switched, I just converted it to what it would be if we had been on the 8 game chase all year.

2) 100-0 means that so far, in the 2020-2021 NBA season, the chase has FINISHED 100 times so far this season, and has 0 game 8 losses so far this season.

Only two plays today for the system.

Thunder/Nuggets OVER. Nuggets are a game 2 play for 3 units.

Pelicans/Jazz UNDER. Jazz are a game 4 play for 27 units.

Working on another system right now. 

I've only had the chance to test it against 2017 and 2018 but it would have won $21,335.89 using another 8 game chase method on the totals.

When I finish testing from 2009-2019, if it's a monster, I'll post more info.

@arakias

 Hate to bet under in the NBA but i will trust the chase and take under 218 jazz since it’s a game 4. Miami over won me some cash so let’s go !!

@arakias

 Good luck brother 

Brutal loss on the game 4... 60 pt fourth quarter. :(

Push on Nuggets game 2.

Jazz move to game 5.

Apparently Covers had the Nuggets game at 219.5, so it counts as a system win. I had 220, and it's a push at that number, but I have to go with the system for results :/

Bankroll +676.69

System is 101-0

read a decent portion of the thread, seems fun and even more fun since it’s mostly profitable. I’m not gonna follow system since it is kind of a lot, but I’ll be tailing your game 6/7/8 game plays. 

@GTRandy

 It's got a couple down years, but nothing crazy, especially if your base unit is $1.60. Cheers