Trust the Chase - Year Long Thread

Teams that are in the negative are only in the negative because they're in the midst of a chase, and my numbers reflect what they are as far as net profit is concerned factoring ALL games, including active chases.

@arakias

 Makes sense, if a team lose 730 units it will be hard to come back from that. To me it’s just another tool that helps with MY choice. You know once people on Covers figure out there’s winners here you will be keyboard raped. Under GS looks good at halftime. GL

@BEER247

 Keyboard raped, lol. This will be a fun system to chase year after year :) I've got another one brewing that seems strong so far but only had a chance to back test 3 seasons, I'd like to do at least 7 more before I post but I am playing it tonight myself. :)

@BEER247

 If a team loses a game 8, there is basically no coming back, but I don't think a team has ever lost two of them either, so you dont want to stop betting them after a game 8 loss or you're missing out on making at least some money back. I'll have to double check that. If we get a game 8 loss at some point this year, I'll check it.

ah that makes a lot of sense. i made the big bet on spurs though hope it comes in. ill be doing the 2 team + money concept going forward though 

Would you auto single bet a game between two teams in plus money? Are those games more likely to win. Sorry to spam your thread mate 

@GTRandy

 Spam away brother. I wouldn't play anything except what the system says. We know for sure that over the course of a decade, that would make you big winner. So for me, I just love to win. I know some guys love "capping". I've tried that for about 10 years now... Sometimes I run hot, sometimes I'm ice cold. I'd rather take the capping out of it and play systems that win over the long run.

The hardest part is staying disciplined (I've wanted to hedge out of SO many games by live betting), so that you never ruin your bankroll.

A team is only plus money from winning games in the system, it doesn't have anything to do with more unders, more overs, streaks, nothing. Just closing out chases :)

So I guess its more probable to win bets say on games 5 through 8 of a chase? I know the system as a whole is profitable, but I'm trying to figure out if betting the singles like tonight's spurs game which seems like it will win and that was game 5 of the chase. the hawks game at game 4 of the chase should have cashed tonight also 

@GTRandy

 You make more profit off the bigger games, yes. There is just far fewer of them throughout the year. That's why my base unit is so low, $1.60. It makes it so that a game 4 is $43.21.

I guess what I'm asking is do you think blindly tailing and single betting games on game 5 or later in the system profitable as well? I know you said they don't come too often and thats by design, but it's also a good thing for gamblers like myself to help with discipline.

@GTRandy

 A game 5 is technically just as likely to win or lose as a game 1. That might be a frustrating answer, but there is no rhyme or reason to the plays, other than the pattern of OOOUUUOU was the best possible combination or sequence of an 8 game chase I could find. Sorry man :( 

i faded some of your picks and won big money

i love you

from the grand lodge of masons in the philippines

any plays tonight?

@AlgerWong

 Do you really think that's going to bother me? It's an 8 game chase so that I can lose 7 in a row and still make money.... The picks are literally automatically generated. It's not like I put hundreds of hours into handicapping a game that you "faded". You tossed a quarter up in the air.. good job bro, lol

@GTRandy

 Generating todays plays now, I'll post them within 30 minutes.

Lakers/Bucks UNDER - Bucks are a game 5 play on the under for 81 units.

Pelicans/Jazz UNDER - Pelicans are a game 5 play on the under for 81 units.

Knicks/Warriors OVER - Knicks are a game 2 play, Warriors are a game 1 play, total units to wager is 4.

Summary of action from yesterday:

Hawks move to game 5, Raptors move to game 2, Magic move to game 2, Twolves move to game 2, Suns move to game 2, 

Celtics and 76ers both complete the chase on game 1 for +0.91 units each.

Spurs complete the chase on game 5 for +33.65 units.

Chase is now 104-0.

Bankroll +711.25

Updated earning per team. If the Jazz and Bucks both complete the chase tonight, we will only have one team in the red for the entire year, the Hawks, who would also be out of the hole as soon as they complete their chases.

Boston 9.87
Nets 26.33
Knicks 32.87
76ers 30.68
Raptors 6.68
Bulls 8.56
Cavs 51.21
Pistons 12.21
Pacers 9.87
Bucks -59.8
Hawks -32.44
Hornets 69.83
Heat 487.38
Magic 26.18
Wizards 5.66
Nuggets 7.11
Twolves 24.73
Thunder 12.35
Blazers 12.63
Jazz -53.11
Warriors 30.4
Clippers 8.42
Lakers 33.3
Suns 27.49
Kings 7.11
Mavs 10.9
Rockets 29.09
Grizzlies 62.85
Pelicans 27.78
Spurs 69.83
995.97

@arakias

 Would you say teams in the negative are "due" to hit? I know anything can happen and every game is still 50/50, but its somewhat logical to expose those to be in line to hit, no?

@GTRandy

 I don't think so Randy. I think a mathematician/statistician would say the previous losses have nothing to do with making the next game more likely to hit :(

If you're an action junkie and LOVE to have action on games (like me), this is a good way to do it IF you can control yourself. If $1.60 unit is too much for you ($3500 game 8), just make your unit even less. Maybe your base unit is 50 cents. Then it would be..

$0.50

$1.50

$4.50

$13.50

$40.50

$121.50

$364.50

$1093.50

$3280.50

Still fairly expensive... Unfortunately, with THIS method of an 8 game chase, there is no way to make it cheaper.

I'm working on another system right now that WILL be an 8 game chase, but much cheaper.

Do you have a stat on how many game 5/6/7/8 of the chase you've seen so far this season? I know you're doing all the work here and the one asking for free info. No worries at all if you don't track that; you're already doing a ton

@GTRandy

 No problem at all.

Hornets = 1 game 5.

Heat = 1 game 7.

Grizzlies = 1 game 5.

Spurs = 1 game 5.

The Bucks and Jazz are both on game 5 tonight. The Hawks next game will be a game 5. No other team is on anything higher than 2 at the moment.

One way you could look at that information, I suppose, is that the 4 times a team has gotten to a game 5, they all completed the chase within their next 3 games, with 3 of the 4 closing the chase on that very game (game 5). Only the Heat took til 7.

Anything on game 5 I'm single betting. I'm a 500-1500$ primarily singles bettor so I'm trying to find an edge on these games nearing their 8th game of your system. Chase being 104-0 seems too good to pass up not singling these games. Gonna do a 500-750-1000-1500 increment 

@GTRandy

 That’s probably not a bad idea... you won’t have as many plays but there definitely shouldn’t be too many game 8 losses either. Last year the  8 game chase would’ve only lost once. A lot of seasons it’s worse, but you never know.

Lakers/Bucks under 228.5