NBA PLAYOFF TIME .................................................2024

thank you ............................

Celtics put on a big show game 1, but Mavs only need to get a split in games 1 & 2 so irrelevant how much you win game 1 by. When the Celtics are hitting 3's they are very tough to beat. Can the Celtics repeat this 3 pt performance ? Well, in the ave game C's took 42.5 3 pt attempts and made 16.5 for a very nice 38.8%.

Game 1 C's took 42 three pt shots and made 16, you can't make this up, they only shot their ave game. Let's see the best shooters , Holiday 42.9%, Hauser 42.4%, Horford 41.9%, 3 players over 41.9%. 2017 Warriors the first year of KD had no players shoot over 41.9%, C's have 3. And White 39.6% much better then KD.

Those 4 players made 9 of 20 ...3 pt shots. 45% which is slightly above their ave but not overly to the point you can expect regression and 3 of those 4 shot slightly under their 3 pt ave.

Wait untill C's shoot well over their ave game then it won't made any difference what Doncic and Kyrie do. And they will shoot below for sure but even then they still can be in the game with a chance to win.

When C's are raining 3's much like the Warriors they can explode out to big leads or come back down double digits in the blink of an eye. Over the years Many teams tried to duplicate what the Warriors did as you always get copycats on title winners but they did not have the 3 pt shooters to do it successfully, Celtics do.

MY LINES NBA Finals Version .....................................game 2

Celtics -6.71 over Mavs

since 1991 with a 1 pt diff to closing line ..................... 14-7 ATS

looks like very likely no play for game 2. line would have to get down to 5.5 to back C's or up to 8 to back the Mavs

With both teams having the common denominators of past champs I'd expect a split in games 1 and 2 and back the losing game 1 team. But Celtics did lose game 2 in both the first & 2cd rounds but those 2 teams were not a serious challenge for them. But VS Pacers in conference finals game 2 was the only game Celtics cover the spread. I would expect the Celtics to bring a big game here and have another at least ave 3 pt shooting night and make it difficult for Mavs to get the split.

I'll pass on any plays or any leans for game 2

I will echo what has already been said above, you for your time and effort with these posts. I also look for your plays. 

Who do you have winning the series? Much appreciated Claw. 

@Createyourluck

 He has Celtics but noted that Mavs have complexion of previous winners also - this game will reveal a lot

thankyou...................will be posting some info ................................

I missed the boat on game 1 unfortunately asI do from time to time, I need to get better organized, I have alot of info but not organized to find it quickly and easily.

Teams with the common denominators of champs and meet the minimum advantage of 1.25 in PR I & .75 in PR II and are 4.5 better in both PR's combined ........................

Celtics better by 7.89, 4th best since 2000

In other words when a team is so much better then their opp in the NBA Finals ............... all game 1's regardless of my lines --- 10-2 ATS going into Celtics game 1, now 11-2 ATS

with a 1 pt diff 7-1 ATS, now 8-1 ATS

These teams are 9-2 at winning the series ......................... 3 times 4-0, 3 times 4-1, 3 times 4-2, of the 9 wins, odds are Celtics win 4-1 or 4-0.

2 

Interesting the 2 losses, 1 was LBJ 2011 Heat losing to Mavs

the other loss was LBJ beating the 2016 Warriors.

Even in both those losses the better teams covered game 1.

7 times a team was 6 better then opp ........................................ 6-1 At winning the series

only team to lose was 2016 Warriors who lost a 3-1 lead with Green suspended, have to give LBJ credit on this one.

Here's the deal ......................... 6 of those 7 teams won both game 1 & game 2 to take a 2-0 lead in the series, the only loss was by 95-93 = 2 pts.

4 of the 6 teams won the series covered the spread in both game 1 & 2.

4 of 7 teams all together counting the 1 loss.

We'll see if the Celtics add to these teams impressive game 1 & 2 performances. I would not bet against the Celtics tonight especially the ML.

I had another spot that comes up a little more often.......................................

A team meets the minimum ONLY, NOT BY any large amount in both PR I and PR II and my lines favors that team by 1 pt or more ...........................9-4 ATS coming into Celtic's game 1, now 10-4 ATS.

My lines is only about 50% ATS in game 1 with a 1 pt diff but what I see is when these teams clearly better are not favored by 1 or more but the inferior team is favored by 1 or more that is when my lines losses game 1.

Every year I try my best to learn something new to add to my info, I think this is a major find.

We all hear how the team wins game 1 goes on to win series like 70% or whatever it is, so it only stands to reason the clearly better team will win game 1 more often then teams are not clearly better.

My friend who watches a lot of analyst on TV told me they were saying how past few years teams winning game 1 haven't been as successful winning the series and this is why many were taking Mavs game 1, but I looked up past few years and the better teams did not meet minimum in both PR's which explains why they didn't win game 1.

Nuggets did last year and they won game 1 and covered although my line had no play.  

Since 2000 only 1 road team was 4.5 better or more, 4.63 to be exact and met the minimum in both PR's, they won game 1 as a 8 pt dog, then pushed game 2 on the closing line but was easy enough to not end up with getting the closing line.

I posted this game on another site and had 1 pt better then the closing line. They actually controlled the game throughout and should of won SU again but opp got fluky luck and tied the game in regulation but the better team lost in OT. I still remember the media asking the team if they could over-come such a tough loss.

That team went on to win 4-1 and go 4-0-1 ATS the closing line.

That team ..................2004 Piston over Shaq & Kobe Lakers. .........

And they were even better in the playoffs with a 5.26 diff in both PR's. 

when team is 4.5 or better in both PR's combined and a 1 pt diff in game 2 .......................... 4-1-1 ATS could easily be 5-1 ATS with getting better line in Pistons game 2.

That brings the game 1,( 7-1 ATS) and game 2, ( 4-1-1 ATS) to a pretty spectacular 11-2-1 ATS.

My Lines ..............................

Celtics -6.71 over Mavs

we don't have a play based on the info.

when my lines does not have 1 pt difff for the better team .................2-4 ATS for the better team 

when my line has opp with 1 pt diff ........................... 1-1 ATS for opp game 2

this suggest maybe Mavs to cover

but teams over 6 better of 6 times they won series, of course we don't know if Celtics will win series, those teams covered game 1 and game 2.... 4 of the 6 times, 4 of 7 if we count the 1 loss.

This info points slighly more to Celtics , I think a no play is the best way to go.

Better opportunities may come up down the road.

Appreciate your efforts.   

Must read every playoffs!

Celtics to tough for Mavs to handle. Even when Celtic's3 pt shooters had a bad night and Doncic was incredible in the 1st half but Kyrie didn't play well but Tatum didn't play well either. Mavs won't hold down Celtic's 3 pt shooters for long.

Celtics become the 8th team to be 6 pts better when combining PR I & II, 7 of those 8 teams won both game 1 & 2. And 5 of the 8 teams went either 2-0 ATS or 1-0-1 ATS , NO ATS losses . Celtics also could have been a win if you got the best line -6.5 so it is either a push or win.

Here is something to chew on going to Dallas for games 3 & 4. 11 teams 4.5 or better in PR I & II combined , 9 of the 11 teams started the series either 3-1 or 3-0. So if you think Mavs will tie this series the info is saying otherwise. Celtics just too good for this Mavs team.

The 2 teams that were tied 2-2 of those 11 teams both lost game 2 by 2 pts. No team won both home games went 2-2 after game 4.

Even the 2004 Pistons, the only road team in the series of the 11 teams, who did lose game 2 on the road took a 3-1 lead and became the first and only team to sweep all 3 home games in the 2-3-2 format used in the finals.

Tomorrow I'll have game 3.

Looking back at your initial post in April…. You have Celtics number one.. Dallas barely makes your top 10… with Kyrie playing like shit… I agree with you… no chance.   I would like to see luka play with a Lebron type.. tad more competitive…see if he would adapt to that and really bear down …. He’s awful good the way he is.. but is lacking something.. Dallas needs….2-3-4 players to really have a chance…. Kyrie was NOT…. The guy to put him with to get the most outta him…  his cast of characters is no where near bostons.   No where near.    

MY LINES NBA Finals Version ........................................ game 3

Mavs 3.29 over Celtics

since 92 to 2023 games with a 2-0 series lead ...................my line is ..

6-2-1 ATS with a 3.5 diff or more from closing line.

5-4 ATS under 3.5 diff

teams with a 4.5 or better combined PR I & PR II ................................ in game 3 with a 2-0 series lead....

3-2 ATS with a 1 pt diff to closing line

superior team with a 2-0 lead is .............. 4-3 winning SU game 3 and taking a 3-0 series lead. 

Line moves up to Mavs -2.5, we don't have a 1 pt diff or a 3.5 with all game 3's with a 2-0 series lead.

Once again people coming in on Mavs, I agree this might be the best game for Mavs to win and cover but it is not by any means a high probability spot for the Mavs and not worth making a play on them

With my line not having a play on either way we measure this game and the team better by 4.5 winning SU more then not but only 4-3, I'd say the info suggesting about a 50-50 play on either team. 50% might be about the best probability you'll get on the Mavs, Celtics just too good.

Not worth a play in my book.

@theclaw

 Porzingis likely gonna be out 

Star player out angle?

@monkeebooger

 C's on the season (including playoffs): 

.762 win % with KP

.857 win % without KP