Posted:
#51
Cavs +12.5 over Celtics --- 1.1 units
Mavs +3.5 over OKC --- 1.1 units
Cavs +500 on ML, I hope I don't miss-out not taking this. Tough spot with Cavs off 7 game series.
0
NBA PLAYOFF TIME .................................................2024
Posted:
#52
0-2 ATS, lost 2.2units
1-6 ATS, 6.65 units
These top teams are not regressing, they keep-on keeping it on with big blowouts. I'd think at some point this has to end. I've never seen anything I can remember quite like this.
Dreadful, my regression indicators are getting destroyed. Celtics game did play-out exactly as the teams off 7 game series VS a top team should have gone, teams win by over20 pts.
We have to keep in mind teams regress in the 1st or 2cd game so I will fade both Celtics and OKC one more time.
On a more positive note, my lines has been doing very well but unfortunately, I've been playing regression not my lines. I ran the Pacers PR's this morning and my lines won ATS game 1, they won OKC game 1 and Twolves game 1 with no play on Celtics game 1 as my line was almost right on the books line. I didn't have all the teams PR's for 1st round but of the games I had my lines did well in first round.
Here's the kicker, we have games coming up that both regression and my lines favor the same team. Hopefully this will be the turning point, one big mighty blow and I can get back close to even in units.
I was quite surprised when I saw how far off my line was to the books line in OKC game 1. That has to be the largest difference ever for my lines in a game 1. A 5.9 difference. Nice to know with such a big difference my lines was correct. I think it is Mavs being over-rated and OKC being young as analyst have been saying they are too young to advance very far. I'd rather be young then not very good.
Mavs according to regression should bounce back game 2 so this could be the Mavs opportunity to show something.
0
Posted:
#54
PR I .....................
Knicks 2.72...by .73
Pacers 1.99
PR II
Knicks 52.99 ....... by .37
Pacers 52.62
MY LINES ............................................
Knicks -4.73 over Pacers
Line close to actual line. Pacers off 2 ATS wins, not really good or bad, Knicks off 1 ATS loss, 2 out of 3 losses, 3 out of 5 losses and 4 out of 6 losses. The spot may slightly favor the Knicks.
But According to both PR's Knicks not much better then the Pacers. I'd give Pacers a decent shot to win the series if Haliburton can play in games and be healthy enough to play well. He looks questionable as of yesterday, I haven't see the latest reports.
If Pacers are to win series most likely they should win SU tonight, tough coming back down 0-2.
I'll pass on game 2 and any series plays.
0
Posted:
#55
Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:
@theclaw Murray's calf injury isn't going to help Nuggs bounce back either.... team has no depth to begin with. Tread lightly
@theclaw Murray's calf injury isn't going to help Nuggs bounce back either.... team has no depth to begin with. Tread lightly
Yea, definitely a concern. Porter has to step up big along with other role players if Nuggets want to win SU. Of course Joker will be the Joker, going to be interesting how this Nugget team responds.
0
Posted:
#58
MY LINES ...........................................
in game 2 my lines only backs a team off ATS loss
Celtics -11.68 over Cavs
OKC -9.4 over Mavs
Celtics off 4 ATS wins and a big blowout 25 pt win after being in regression, this becomes a re-qualify game as the re-qualify for regression fade. Has been a very good spot to fade the team. Terrible spot for Celtics. And my lines has a play on the Cavs, the line needs to drop to 12.5 for no play using my lines.
Play is on the Cavs, a game of the year type play.
OKC off 4 ATS wins and a 22 pt win but not enough to re-qualify, but they are in the 2cd game of regression, the best probability of regression. Bad, bad spot for OKC.
Play is on the Mavs.
The other good indicator is now after all these blowout wins the line is going up, we get more pts as books are adjusting to these blowouts. Very good possibility these blowout wins are coming to a end.
1
Posted:
#59
Cavs +13.5 over Celtics --- 3.3 units
Cavs ML +650 --- .5 units to win 3.25 units
Cavs 1st half +8.5 (-105) --- 1.05 units
Cavs 1st half ML +370 --- .5 units to win 1.85 units
Mavs +5.5 over OKC --- 2.2 units
Mavs ML +168 --- .5 units to win .84 units
Mavs 1st half +2.5 (-105) --- 1.05 units
Mavs 1st half ML +144 --- .5 units to win .72 units
I am going down with the (regression) ship tonight. I need a big night or going to get buried with regression.
By the way, the largest ML I have ever hit using this regression method was a ridiculous +1700 and a +1000 in the 1st half in a different game. Keep in mind these spots do not always produce a ML win but some of the largest ML payouts each year have come in this very spot so well worth a "small play" considering the history of wins.
I would always play 1st half ML and game on the ML in these spots as many times only 1 hits but that is all you need to come out ahead if you play the same amount. Sometimes you can get both, I don't have records on this but it seems to me from my memory that hitting the 1st half ML might be slightly better then hitting the game ML so you want to play both for sure.
5
Posted:
#70
Quote Originally Posted by insatiable:
@theclaw Damn missed Ft cost you the ML. But
@theclaw Damn missed Ft cost you the ML. But
That was brutal, but all things considered can't complain too much.
Interesting I had planned to play this prop but when I got to local book I was focused on getting all the plays I wanted and forgot to play it.
Half/game results .......
I play this every blue moon when I think the odds are big enough, it does come in once awhile.
I check the odds when situation is right.
Play was ..... tie 1st half with Cavs winning the game. The odds seemed way off balanced +5500. I saw that on the book app.
That missed FT could have been a big score, but I only go very small on it, ties do happen in this spot sometimes as 1st half tends to be tight.
But still takes a lot of luck so I only do it when odds are big enough
Kicking my self this morning, would have been a great icing on the cake.
1
Posted:
#75
MY LINES ...............................................
teams down 0-2 receive 4 additional desperation bonus pts.
Pacers -7.27 over Knicks
Twolves-1.85 over Nuggets
Pacers line about right on books line ....no play
Twolves off 6 ATS wins and a big blowout 26 pt win, not a true regression spot but a bad, bad spot. And my lines on the Nuggets. Play is on the Nuggets tonight. These big blowouts are coming to an end and likely continues into this game tonight. Nuggets should get the SU win.
Ant's been unreal to this point but all those shots going in don't have to continue going in. When they go in players and teams look very good but when they don't they don't look so good anymore. Ant shot 35.7% on 3's this season but now shooting 41.6% in playoffs, he goes from about league average to Curry level. Even Curry can't sustain that kind of play, he goes 1 for 10 or 2 for12at times, Ant won't either, it's just a matter of when not if.
Nuggets +4.5 over Twolves --- 1.1 units
Nuggets ML +145 --- .5 units win .72 units
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