CC vs CJ in this one. In his last outing Sabathia wasn't as sharp as he is usually, going 6 innings against the Twinkies, giving up 5 hits and 3 ER's. He walked 3 and struck out 5 in that outing. You could tell he didn't have his best stuff that day. Wilson, on the other hand, was phenomenal against the Rays in his last outing. He held them to 2 hits in 6.3 innings, with ZERO ER's, and 2 BB's to 7 K's. So why are Yankees the play in this one?
Well, for starters, Wilson has an ERA of 5.65 with a WHIP of 1.419 against the Yankees. He's 0-1 against them in 3 starts, all of which came this year. In those 3 starts, Wilson gave up 18 hits, 9 ER's (11 total), with 9 BB's to 15 K's (1.67 ratio) in 14 innings pitched. What is interesting is that the Rangers were able to come back in 2 out of those 3 games and actually get a win. The 1 loss that was credited to Wilson, was the day when the opposing pitcher was Sabathia. Sabathia was dominant in that one. He went 6 innings, gave up only 3 hits, 1 ER, while walking NONE and striking out 9. Very impressive performance.
Life-time, Yankee hitters hit .248 off Wilson with .372 OBP. A number of Yankee hitters have had success against Wilson: Swisher BA .300; Jeter BA .357; Cano BA .286; Thames BA .455. Interestingly their biggest bats, Rodriguez 1 for 13 (BA .077) and Teixeira 0 for 5 (BA .000), have not. They do have 6 walks to 5 strike-outs aginst Wilson though, which will bode well for them getting on-base against him. Speaking of getting on base, a high OBP like .372, tells me that Yankee hitters are very patient against CJ and are able to draw a number of walks. The numbers do back this up as New York has 21 BB's to 35 K's when facing Wilson (1.67 ratio...which is the same ratio as he had against them in his starts this year. Remember, that Wilson was a closer prior to this season). This will definitely come into play against a pitcher who was 1st in AL with 93 BB's during the regular season. Add in the fact that Yankee hitters have an OPS of .728 against Wilson, and it's easy to conclude that they should have success of getting on base and scoring runs against him.
Sabathia has a different history against Rangers hitters. Life-time, they bat .188 against him with an OBP of only .231. Their OPS is a measely .537. What's interesting is that only 1 Texas hitter has hit over .300 against CC: Michael Young, BA .316, 12 for 38 with 8 K's and 1 BB. Some of Rangers' biggest hitters have really struggled against Sabathia: Guerrero 3 for 17 (BA .176); Hamilton 1 for 10 (BA .100); Kinsler 2 for 12 (BA .222); Cruz 0 for 5; Francouer 2 for 12 (BA .167); Cantu 1 for 12 (BA .083); Molina 1 for 19 (BA .053). What's even more impressive is Sabathia's K/BB ratio of 4.75 (38K's to 8 BB's) against these hitters. We could safely conclude that he's pretty much unhittable for this lineup.
Quick scan of advanced stats confirms the fact that CC is a more dominant pitcher. He has an FIP of 3.54 with an xFIP of 3.78 (24th best). Wilson has an FIP of 3.56 (very similar to CC's) but a middle of the road xFIP of 4.20 (55th in MLB). His 1.83 K/BB ratio is one of the worst in the league especially when you compare it to Sabathia's 2.66. I really expect CC to improve over his last outing and come out very strong in this one, while Wilson will struggle a bit against a very patient Yankee lineup.
Bullpen advantage is for the Yankees. On the road this year their pen has an ERA of 2.96 and WHIP of 1.2, with opponets registering .80 hits per inning against them. Their K/BB ratio is at 2.05. Rangers pen at home has an ERA of 3.51 and WHIP of 1.3, allowing .93 hits per inning. Their K/BB ratio is slightly better at 2.15, but the difference is negligible. The variance in hits allowed per inning pitched is a more telling sign that Rangers bullpen is easier to hit than New York's.
When looking at current hitting form, the Yankees have an edge as well (no surprise). During the playoffs, Yankees are averaging 11 hits and scoring 5.67 rpg. Rangers are averaging 8.8 hits while scoring 4.20 rpg. Both Guerrero and Hamilton have really struggled in their last series and I don't see them having success against Sabathia.
Yankees are 27-8 when total is between 8 and 8.5 and 17-3 on the road in this range. They're 14-10 on the season when they're road favorites between -125 and -150. Rangers are 1-3 when they're home underdogs of +125 to +150. It's a fairly strong indicator that in these particular odds ranges, the oddsmakers are having difficulty properly valuing the Rangers (over-valuing) and they're undervaluing the Yankees at the same time. Yes, Yankees are under-valued here at -145 odds! I backed CC in his first game against the Twinkies and I will confidently back him in this one as well, especially since I expect an improved performance.
CC vs CJ in this one. In his last outing Sabathia wasn't as sharp as he is usually, going 6 innings against the Twinkies, giving up 5 hits and 3 ER's. He walked 3 and struck out 5 in that outing. You could tell he didn't have his best stuff that day. Wilson, on the other hand, was phenomenal against the Rays in his last outing. He held them to 2 hits in 6.3 innings, with ZERO ER's, and 2 BB's to 7 K's. So why are Yankees the play in this one?
Well, for starters, Wilson has an ERA of 5.65 with a WHIP of 1.419 against the Yankees. He's 0-1 against them in 3 starts, all of which came this year. In those 3 starts, Wilson gave up 18 hits, 9 ER's (11 total), with 9 BB's to 15 K's (1.67 ratio) in 14 innings pitched. What is interesting is that the Rangers were able to come back in 2 out of those 3 games and actually get a win. The 1 loss that was credited to Wilson, was the day when the opposing pitcher was Sabathia. Sabathia was dominant in that one. He went 6 innings, gave up only 3 hits, 1 ER, while walking NONE and striking out 9. Very impressive performance.
Life-time, Yankee hitters hit .248 off Wilson with .372 OBP. A number of Yankee hitters have had success against Wilson: Swisher BA .300; Jeter BA .357; Cano BA .286; Thames BA .455. Interestingly their biggest bats, Rodriguez 1 for 13 (BA .077) and Teixeira 0 for 5 (BA .000), have not. They do have 6 walks to 5 strike-outs aginst Wilson though, which will bode well for them getting on-base against him. Speaking of getting on base, a high OBP like .372, tells me that Yankee hitters are very patient against CJ and are able to draw a number of walks. The numbers do back this up as New York has 21 BB's to 35 K's when facing Wilson (1.67 ratio...which is the same ratio as he had against them in his starts this year. Remember, that Wilson was a closer prior to this season). This will definitely come into play against a pitcher who was 1st in AL with 93 BB's during the regular season. Add in the fact that Yankee hitters have an OPS of .728 against Wilson, and it's easy to conclude that they should have success of getting on base and scoring runs against him.
Sabathia has a different history against Rangers hitters. Life-time, they bat .188 against him with an OBP of only .231. Their OPS is a measely .537. What's interesting is that only 1 Texas hitter has hit over .300 against CC: Michael Young, BA .316, 12 for 38 with 8 K's and 1 BB. Some of Rangers' biggest hitters have really struggled against Sabathia: Guerrero 3 for 17 (BA .176); Hamilton 1 for 10 (BA .100); Kinsler 2 for 12 (BA .222); Cruz 0 for 5; Francouer 2 for 12 (BA .167); Cantu 1 for 12 (BA .083); Molina 1 for 19 (BA .053). What's even more impressive is Sabathia's K/BB ratio of 4.75 (38K's to 8 BB's) against these hitters. We could safely conclude that he's pretty much unhittable for this lineup.
Quick scan of advanced stats confirms the fact that CC is a more dominant pitcher. He has an FIP of 3.54 with an xFIP of 3.78 (24th best). Wilson has an FIP of 3.56 (very similar to CC's) but a middle of the road xFIP of 4.20 (55th in MLB). His 1.83 K/BB ratio is one of the worst in the league especially when you compare it to Sabathia's 2.66. I really expect CC to improve over his last outing and come out very strong in this one, while Wilson will struggle a bit against a very patient Yankee lineup.
Bullpen advantage is for the Yankees. On the road this year their pen has an ERA of 2.96 and WHIP of 1.2, with opponets registering .80 hits per inning against them. Their K/BB ratio is at 2.05. Rangers pen at home has an ERA of 3.51 and WHIP of 1.3, allowing .93 hits per inning. Their K/BB ratio is slightly better at 2.15, but the difference is negligible. The variance in hits allowed per inning pitched is a more telling sign that Rangers bullpen is easier to hit than New York's.
When looking at current hitting form, the Yankees have an edge as well (no surprise). During the playoffs, Yankees are averaging 11 hits and scoring 5.67 rpg. Rangers are averaging 8.8 hits while scoring 4.20 rpg. Both Guerrero and Hamilton have really struggled in their last series and I don't see them having success against Sabathia.
Yankees are 27-8 when total is between 8 and 8.5 and 17-3 on the road in this range. They're 14-10 on the season when they're road favorites between -125 and -150. Rangers are 1-3 when they're home underdogs of +125 to +150. It's a fairly strong indicator that in these particular odds ranges, the oddsmakers are having difficulty properly valuing the Rangers (over-valuing) and they're undervaluing the Yankees at the same time. Yes, Yankees are under-valued here at -145 odds! I backed CC in his first game against the Twinkies and I will confidently back him in this one as well, especially since I expect an improved performance.
Something else that I forgot to mention in my write-up: Yankees' lineup has no EASY outs IMO. That being said, Rangers, on the other hand, have a number of easy outs in the bottom 3rd of their lineup. Francouer is one of the worst hitters I've ever seen. The guy's OBP is always below .300, he strikes out like it's his job, never takes a base on balls...just a horrible hitter. Cantu is batting .243 in September and is another player whose OBP is barely .300. Molina is batting .249 with OBP of .297. Wow. That is pathetic. Three guys at the bottom of this lineup that aren't even over .300 OBP...That's ridiculous for MLB players. And with Hamilton and Guerrero struggling, this Rangers offense is not as scary as everyone thinks....CC will shut them down today.
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Something else that I forgot to mention in my write-up: Yankees' lineup has no EASY outs IMO. That being said, Rangers, on the other hand, have a number of easy outs in the bottom 3rd of their lineup. Francouer is one of the worst hitters I've ever seen. The guy's OBP is always below .300, he strikes out like it's his job, never takes a base on balls...just a horrible hitter. Cantu is batting .243 in September and is another player whose OBP is barely .300. Molina is batting .249 with OBP of .297. Wow. That is pathetic. Three guys at the bottom of this lineup that aren't even over .300 OBP...That's ridiculous for MLB players. And with Hamilton and Guerrero struggling, this Rangers offense is not as scary as everyone thinks....CC will shut them down today.
#12: UNDER 6.0 SF/PHI I want to start this analysis by saying that I really wanted to take the Giants with Timmy in game one (in addition to this play). I just think there is too much value on the Giants in this one. Unfortunately due to the fact that Lincecum is dealing with a blister on his throwing hand I will refrain from that play. Don't get me wrong, when Lincecum is pitching tomorrow I still expect him to be his dominant self but even if he is a tiny bit off, that could be a difference in what I expect to be a close and low scoring game.
Speaking of low scoring, the UNDER looks very enticing to me here. You all know what these 2 pitchers have done in their outings in the divisional series', so there is no need to repeat it. Their advanced stats are phenomenal: Lincecum xFIP is 3.21 (5th best) and Halladay's xFIP is 2.92 (#1 in MLB). Halladay has a K/BB ratio of 7.30 while Lincecum's is at 3.04. Even though Lincecum walks a few more batters per nine innings, his K/9 is 9.79 compared to Halladay's 7.86. Lincecum has been sharp lately so I expect his K/BB ratio to be higher in this one than his season average.
This season Lincecum has an ERA of 2.16 against the Phils holding them to 3 hits, 2 ER's in 8.1 innings. He has 11K's to only 1 BB against them, allowing them to a .111 BA. Life-time, Phillies are hitting .202 off him with an OBP of only .259 and his K/BB ratio against them is 4.11. Halladay had a rough outing against the Giants earlier this year: 7 innings, 10 hits, 5 ER's. He had 5 K's to 0 BB's and allowed them to bat .333. To me this performance was an anomally and will motivate him to perform much better on Saturday. Life-time, these Giants hitters bat .271 off him with an OBP of .301. His K/BB ratio off them is an impressive 5.67. Bottom line is that we have 2 premier pitchers going in this one, who have had a lot of success against the respective lineups they'll be seeing on Saturday.
The key for this under is also the current hitting form of both of these clubs. San Fran is batting .239 with an OBP of .299 while scoring only 2.9 rpg in their last 7. During the playoffs they're averaging 7 hits and only 2.75 rpg. Interestingly, Phillies are also only averaging 7 hits per game in the playoffs while scoring 4.33 rpg. This 4.33 is misleading though, dur to the fact that Phillies scored 7 in game 2 against Cincy. If you remember, 4 careless errors led to most of those runs. Based on my calculation, Phillies should have only scored 3 runs in game 2 of that series. So if you take out the runs that were due to Cincy errors, Phillies' modified scoring average should have been 3.0 rpg in the previous series. So we have one team that averaged 2.75 rpg and another that should have been at 3.0 rpg. That's a total of only 5.75 rpg. This is 5.75 rpg against pitchers that are NOT as good as both Lincecum and Halladay. Add in the fact that these guys will be facing offenses that could only muster 7 hits per game in the playoffs, and the UNDER looks even juicier now.
Giants are 7-12 O/U on the road when the total is 7 or less. Phillies are 1-5 at home when the total is 7 or less (3-13 O/U overall in this range). We have an 8-17 O/U situation here boys and girls, good for 68%. Giants are 1-3 O/U in their 4 playoff games so far, while Phillies are 1-2 O/U (should be 0-3 if not for those Cincy errors) in theirs.
One final point here: the Rangers/Rays finale had an O/U of 6.5. That was an American League game with a designated hitter. In this one, I expect both pitchers to go pretty deep in the game, thus providing them with 3 batting opportunities (it's normally 2 for pitchers in NL). That's 6 automatic (well....pretty much) outs, which officially decreases the game from 9 to 8 innings. Given the odds, it's not out of the question that Philly will be leading this one late, thus eliminating the need for them to bat in the bottom of the 9th inning. This will eliminate an additional 3 outs. Basically, if the game goes the way I see it (and they rarely go according to plan ), we're working with an O/U of 6 runs in a 7.5 inning game. I think it's very reasonable to assume that given the quality of the pitching and the poor hitting form of both squads, that 6 runs is too many in a 7.5 inning game.
Good luck all, unless of course you're on the OVER in this one.
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#12: UNDER 6.0 SF/PHI I want to start this analysis by saying that I really wanted to take the Giants with Timmy in game one (in addition to this play). I just think there is too much value on the Giants in this one. Unfortunately due to the fact that Lincecum is dealing with a blister on his throwing hand I will refrain from that play. Don't get me wrong, when Lincecum is pitching tomorrow I still expect him to be his dominant self but even if he is a tiny bit off, that could be a difference in what I expect to be a close and low scoring game.
Speaking of low scoring, the UNDER looks very enticing to me here. You all know what these 2 pitchers have done in their outings in the divisional series', so there is no need to repeat it. Their advanced stats are phenomenal: Lincecum xFIP is 3.21 (5th best) and Halladay's xFIP is 2.92 (#1 in MLB). Halladay has a K/BB ratio of 7.30 while Lincecum's is at 3.04. Even though Lincecum walks a few more batters per nine innings, his K/9 is 9.79 compared to Halladay's 7.86. Lincecum has been sharp lately so I expect his K/BB ratio to be higher in this one than his season average.
This season Lincecum has an ERA of 2.16 against the Phils holding them to 3 hits, 2 ER's in 8.1 innings. He has 11K's to only 1 BB against them, allowing them to a .111 BA. Life-time, Phillies are hitting .202 off him with an OBP of only .259 and his K/BB ratio against them is 4.11. Halladay had a rough outing against the Giants earlier this year: 7 innings, 10 hits, 5 ER's. He had 5 K's to 0 BB's and allowed them to bat .333. To me this performance was an anomally and will motivate him to perform much better on Saturday. Life-time, these Giants hitters bat .271 off him with an OBP of .301. His K/BB ratio off them is an impressive 5.67. Bottom line is that we have 2 premier pitchers going in this one, who have had a lot of success against the respective lineups they'll be seeing on Saturday.
The key for this under is also the current hitting form of both of these clubs. San Fran is batting .239 with an OBP of .299 while scoring only 2.9 rpg in their last 7. During the playoffs they're averaging 7 hits and only 2.75 rpg. Interestingly, Phillies are also only averaging 7 hits per game in the playoffs while scoring 4.33 rpg. This 4.33 is misleading though, dur to the fact that Phillies scored 7 in game 2 against Cincy. If you remember, 4 careless errors led to most of those runs. Based on my calculation, Phillies should have only scored 3 runs in game 2 of that series. So if you take out the runs that were due to Cincy errors, Phillies' modified scoring average should have been 3.0 rpg in the previous series. So we have one team that averaged 2.75 rpg and another that should have been at 3.0 rpg. That's a total of only 5.75 rpg. This is 5.75 rpg against pitchers that are NOT as good as both Lincecum and Halladay. Add in the fact that these guys will be facing offenses that could only muster 7 hits per game in the playoffs, and the UNDER looks even juicier now.
Giants are 7-12 O/U on the road when the total is 7 or less. Phillies are 1-5 at home when the total is 7 or less (3-13 O/U overall in this range). We have an 8-17 O/U situation here boys and girls, good for 68%. Giants are 1-3 O/U in their 4 playoff games so far, while Phillies are 1-2 O/U (should be 0-3 if not for those Cincy errors) in theirs.
One final point here: the Rangers/Rays finale had an O/U of 6.5. That was an American League game with a designated hitter. In this one, I expect both pitchers to go pretty deep in the game, thus providing them with 3 batting opportunities (it's normally 2 for pitchers in NL). That's 6 automatic (well....pretty much) outs, which officially decreases the game from 9 to 8 innings. Given the odds, it's not out of the question that Philly will be leading this one late, thus eliminating the need for them to bat in the bottom of the 9th inning. This will eliminate an additional 3 outs. Basically, if the game goes the way I see it (and they rarely go according to plan ), we're working with an O/U of 6 runs in a 7.5 inning game. I think it's very reasonable to assume that given the quality of the pitching and the poor hitting form of both squads, that 6 runs is too many in a 7.5 inning game.
Good luck all, unless of course you're on the OVER in this one.
Value is on the Giants but I decided not to play due to the blister on Lincecum's hand...just never know how that will respond during the game. Giants bullpen is good enough to keep the game close but they're not as good as Timmy...
Good luck buddy
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Quote Originally Posted by jimmythejap:
Way to go BODIO thanks for the yanks.
GL tonite any lean besides the under
Value is on the Giants but I decided not to play due to the blister on Lincecum's hand...just never know how that will respond during the game. Giants bullpen is good enough to keep the game close but they're not as good as Timmy...
===================================================== #13: UNDER 7 SF/PHI
Going
back to the UNDER today again. Both pitchers are in very good forms
and I expect Oswalt to rebound from a shaky outing last time out. Both
pitchers have had success against these respective opponents this year:
Sanches ERA under 2 against Philly; Oswalt ERA under 3.5 against San
Fran. There were a number of home-runs hit in the game yesterday, and I
don't see as many being hit today. The umpire on the mound has a 13-20
O/U record for the season. I like the UNDER again here.
===================================================== #13: UNDER 7 SF/PHI
Going
back to the UNDER today again. Both pitchers are in very good forms
and I expect Oswalt to rebound from a shaky outing last time out. Both
pitchers have had success against these respective opponents this year:
Sanches ERA under 2 against Philly; Oswalt ERA under 3.5 against San
Fran. There were a number of home-runs hit in the game yesterday, and I
don't see as many being hit today. The umpire on the mound has a 13-20
O/U record for the season. I like the UNDER again here.
Lee is 6-0 with an ERA of under 2 in his post-season career. Pettite is 19-9 with an ERA of 3.87 in the playoffs. Both pitchers have pitched really well in the first round. So why am I taking the OVER here?
Well first of all I want to point out that Rays came into the Rangers' series in a huge slump offensively. In addition, people forget that this was one of the worst hitting teams during the year with a .247 BA, 4th worst in the league. It's no wonder that against a pitcher who doesn't walk a lot of batters, this Rays lineup would have struggled. Well, Lee is that pitcher and we backed him both times that he faced the Rays in that first series. He walked NONE and struck out 21 en route to 2 wins for us.
My point here is that Yankees are a totally different animal. During the season their BA was .267 (8th best) with an OBP of .350 (the BEST in the league), and SLG of .436 (3rd best). As good as Lee has been against New York in his career, 4.14 ERA and 1.3 WHIP, what stands out to me is his one outing at the Yankee stadium earlier this year. He went 9 innings, gave up 8 hits, and 3 ER's (4 total runs). But what's interesting is that 2 of those hits were HR's, and he only struck-out 2 while walking 1 in that outing. Why is this important? Well, I don't think Lee will be as dominant against the Yankees in New York as he's been against the Rays. In his last 4 road starts prior to the post-season, Lee gave up 31 hits, 3 HR's, and 19 ER's, in 25 innings pitched. That's a 6.84 ERA. Also keep in mind that life-time, Yankees have a BA of .280 with an OBP of .329 and a healthy OPS of .811 off Lee. Some of their biggest bats have had great success off him: Granderson 12 for 42 (.286 BA); Jeter 15 for 36 (.417 BA); Teixeira 10 for 30 (.333); Swisher 8 for 25 (.320 BA); A-Rod 6 for 22 (.273 BA); Berkman 3 for 8 (.375 BA) and my favorite Yankee player, Brett Gardner 3 for 8 (.375 BA). Besides the fact that these guys (listed above) went 57 for 171 (.333 BA) off Lee with 6 homer's and 29 RBI, what really is interesting is that Lee issued 17 walks to them while striking them out 20 times in that span. (Way below his 10.28 K/BB season average) I truly feel that Yankee hitters will have some success against Lee today and should be good for 3 runs off him.
Now let's take a look at Andy Pettitte. The veteran southpaw is going for his 20th playoff win today. As good as he pitched against the Twinkies, I see AP not having as much success against the Rangers team that been manufacturing runs on the road in these playoffs. In Pettitte's 2 starts prior to the playoffs, he gave up 19 hits and 9 ER's, in only 7.1 innings of work. Now he gets to face a lineup that has a BA of .308 off him with .373 OBP and .834 OPS. The Yankees made an effort to pitch around Hamilton in game 2, by issuing 4 walks to him (2 intentional). The reason they got away with this is because Guerrero is struggling at the plate going 1 for 9 in the series so far. Well, Vlad is pretty comfortable hitting Pettitte in his career, going 9 for 26 for a .346 BA. This is a good matchup for him to get out of his funk. Besides Guerrero, a number of Rangers' hitters have had success off Pettitte: Young 9 for 31 (.290 BA); Molina 6 for 20 (.300 BA); Hamilton 3 for 10 (.300 BA); Francoeur 5 for 8 (.625 BA); Andrus 2 for 5; and Treanor 1 for 3. I see Pettitte giving up 4 runs to the Rangers in this one.
I don't expect Lee to go all the way in this one, especially since he threw 120 pitches in his last start. I think he goes 7 innings, and the volatile Texas bullpen should be good for another run or 2 in this one. Yankee bullpen has an ERA of 3.96 at home, 0.5 ER's worse than their season average. I expect them to give up a run or 2 as well in this one.
Finally I want to point out these potent offenses a bit more. On the season Yankees are scoring 5.8 runs at home, while Rangers are scoring 4.4 on the road (Total = 10.2 rpg). Versus left-handed starters, Yankees are scoring 5.0 rpg / Rangers are scoring 4.5 rpg (Total = 9.5 rpg) In ALL games this year, Yankees are scoring 5.3 rpg / Rangers are scoring 4.9 rpg (Total = 10.2 rpg) In their last 7 games, Yankees are scoring 5.1 rpg while batting .265 with OBP of .353 / Rangers are scoring 4.7 rpg, batting .264 with OBP of .315 (Total = 9.8 rpg) And finally, in this series Yankees are scoring 4.0 rpg, batting .246 / Rangers are scoring 6.0 rpg, batting .292 (Total = 10.0 rpg). As you can see from the above numbers, Yankees hit better and score more runs at home, so their BA should improve going forward. Rangers are scoring a lot of runs right now, and I see them staying hot. Looking simplistically (key word simplistically) at all these stats that I listed above we could predict that there "should" be anywhere between 9.5 and 10.2 runs scored in today's game. So I guess the question becomes, are Lee and Pettitte, playoff pressure, weather (should be around 55 degrees with a light wind blowing out at 8mph), and a million other factors enough to reduce this predicted score by 2.5 runs to the listed total of 7.5?
Well, I don't think there is enough here to expect the final score to be 2.5 runs less than what these teams have produced in similar settings this year. Throw in the fact that the umpire for today's game, Jim Reynolds, is 17-10-1 to the 'OVER' on the season, and I like this play even more.
Good luck to all! (except if you're on the opposite side of course)
Lee is 6-0 with an ERA of under 2 in his post-season career. Pettite is 19-9 with an ERA of 3.87 in the playoffs. Both pitchers have pitched really well in the first round. So why am I taking the OVER here?
Well first of all I want to point out that Rays came into the Rangers' series in a huge slump offensively. In addition, people forget that this was one of the worst hitting teams during the year with a .247 BA, 4th worst in the league. It's no wonder that against a pitcher who doesn't walk a lot of batters, this Rays lineup would have struggled. Well, Lee is that pitcher and we backed him both times that he faced the Rays in that first series. He walked NONE and struck out 21 en route to 2 wins for us.
My point here is that Yankees are a totally different animal. During the season their BA was .267 (8th best) with an OBP of .350 (the BEST in the league), and SLG of .436 (3rd best). As good as Lee has been against New York in his career, 4.14 ERA and 1.3 WHIP, what stands out to me is his one outing at the Yankee stadium earlier this year. He went 9 innings, gave up 8 hits, and 3 ER's (4 total runs). But what's interesting is that 2 of those hits were HR's, and he only struck-out 2 while walking 1 in that outing. Why is this important? Well, I don't think Lee will be as dominant against the Yankees in New York as he's been against the Rays. In his last 4 road starts prior to the post-season, Lee gave up 31 hits, 3 HR's, and 19 ER's, in 25 innings pitched. That's a 6.84 ERA. Also keep in mind that life-time, Yankees have a BA of .280 with an OBP of .329 and a healthy OPS of .811 off Lee. Some of their biggest bats have had great success off him: Granderson 12 for 42 (.286 BA); Jeter 15 for 36 (.417 BA); Teixeira 10 for 30 (.333); Swisher 8 for 25 (.320 BA); A-Rod 6 for 22 (.273 BA); Berkman 3 for 8 (.375 BA) and my favorite Yankee player, Brett Gardner 3 for 8 (.375 BA). Besides the fact that these guys (listed above) went 57 for 171 (.333 BA) off Lee with 6 homer's and 29 RBI, what really is interesting is that Lee issued 17 walks to them while striking them out 20 times in that span. (Way below his 10.28 K/BB season average) I truly feel that Yankee hitters will have some success against Lee today and should be good for 3 runs off him.
Now let's take a look at Andy Pettitte. The veteran southpaw is going for his 20th playoff win today. As good as he pitched against the Twinkies, I see AP not having as much success against the Rangers team that been manufacturing runs on the road in these playoffs. In Pettitte's 2 starts prior to the playoffs, he gave up 19 hits and 9 ER's, in only 7.1 innings of work. Now he gets to face a lineup that has a BA of .308 off him with .373 OBP and .834 OPS. The Yankees made an effort to pitch around Hamilton in game 2, by issuing 4 walks to him (2 intentional). The reason they got away with this is because Guerrero is struggling at the plate going 1 for 9 in the series so far. Well, Vlad is pretty comfortable hitting Pettitte in his career, going 9 for 26 for a .346 BA. This is a good matchup for him to get out of his funk. Besides Guerrero, a number of Rangers' hitters have had success off Pettitte: Young 9 for 31 (.290 BA); Molina 6 for 20 (.300 BA); Hamilton 3 for 10 (.300 BA); Francoeur 5 for 8 (.625 BA); Andrus 2 for 5; and Treanor 1 for 3. I see Pettitte giving up 4 runs to the Rangers in this one.
I don't expect Lee to go all the way in this one, especially since he threw 120 pitches in his last start. I think he goes 7 innings, and the volatile Texas bullpen should be good for another run or 2 in this one. Yankee bullpen has an ERA of 3.96 at home, 0.5 ER's worse than their season average. I expect them to give up a run or 2 as well in this one.
Finally I want to point out these potent offenses a bit more. On the season Yankees are scoring 5.8 runs at home, while Rangers are scoring 4.4 on the road (Total = 10.2 rpg). Versus left-handed starters, Yankees are scoring 5.0 rpg / Rangers are scoring 4.5 rpg (Total = 9.5 rpg) In ALL games this year, Yankees are scoring 5.3 rpg / Rangers are scoring 4.9 rpg (Total = 10.2 rpg) In their last 7 games, Yankees are scoring 5.1 rpg while batting .265 with OBP of .353 / Rangers are scoring 4.7 rpg, batting .264 with OBP of .315 (Total = 9.8 rpg) And finally, in this series Yankees are scoring 4.0 rpg, batting .246 / Rangers are scoring 6.0 rpg, batting .292 (Total = 10.0 rpg). As you can see from the above numbers, Yankees hit better and score more runs at home, so their BA should improve going forward. Rangers are scoring a lot of runs right now, and I see them staying hot. Looking simplistically (key word simplistically) at all these stats that I listed above we could predict that there "should" be anywhere between 9.5 and 10.2 runs scored in today's game. So I guess the question becomes, are Lee and Pettitte, playoff pressure, weather (should be around 55 degrees with a light wind blowing out at 8mph), and a million other factors enough to reduce this predicted score by 2.5 runs to the listed total of 7.5?
Well, I don't think there is enough here to expect the final score to be 2.5 runs less than what these teams have produced in similar settings this year. Throw in the fact that the umpire for today's game, Jim Reynolds, is 17-10-1 to the 'OVER' on the season, and I like this play even more.
Good luck to all! (except if you're on the opposite side of course)
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thanks for the winner tues Cliff Lee is a monster!!!!
Best of luck Bodio 
bodio 
Thank you 
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