Posted:
#101
MLB 2010 Playoffs Record: 12 - 6 @ 67%
Units won: + 5.76
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#20: Texas Rangers +103
Colby Lewis is coming off a game where he gave up 6 hits and 2 ER's in 5.2 innings to these Yankees. On the season he has an FIP of 3.55 (27th best) and xFIP of 3.93 (37 in MLB). He has a very good 3.02 K/BB ratio and a 0.94 HR/9 ratio. Phil Hughes got absolutely rocked in his last outing against these Rangers: 4 innings, 10 hits, and 7 ER's. This season, Hughes has an FIP of 4.25 (71st in MLB) and xFIP of 4.33 (65th in the league). His K/BB ratio is 2.5 and HR/9 ratio is 1.28 (all #'s significantly worse than Lewis'). He is a very mediocre pitcher who experienced some 'luck' earlier in the season. His .281 BABIP proves that he's been somewhat lucky. Well his luck ran out in his last outing against the Rangers and I see no reason why Texas won't get to Hughes again tonight.
Keep in mind that Yankees are only averaging 6.25 hits per game in their last 4 games. Rangers on the other hand are averaging 12.25 hits per game in the same time-span. That's twice as many!. They even outhit New York in the last outing, 13 to 9, but had trouble bringing guys in. For the series New York is batting .217 and 8 for 51 (.157) with RISP. In comparison, Texas is hitting .320 and 16 for 46 (.348) with RISP. Big difference here....
Unfortunately for Yankee backers, all the numbers support the Rangers in this one. Rangers' players are playing loose, they're hitting the ball well, and they're at home. Sure, I know they've won more on the road than at home in these playoffs, but that's an anomaly. Home field advantage will play a role in this one as well. I know it feels warm and fuzzy inside to take the Yankees in this one, hoping for an epic rematch of Lee and Pettitte. Unfortunately, it will not happen. Rangers close off the series and lineup their rotation for the World Series with Lee going in game 1.
Units won: + 5.76
=====================================================
#20: Texas Rangers +103
Colby Lewis is coming off a game where he gave up 6 hits and 2 ER's in 5.2 innings to these Yankees. On the season he has an FIP of 3.55 (27th best) and xFIP of 3.93 (37 in MLB). He has a very good 3.02 K/BB ratio and a 0.94 HR/9 ratio. Phil Hughes got absolutely rocked in his last outing against these Rangers: 4 innings, 10 hits, and 7 ER's. This season, Hughes has an FIP of 4.25 (71st in MLB) and xFIP of 4.33 (65th in the league). His K/BB ratio is 2.5 and HR/9 ratio is 1.28 (all #'s significantly worse than Lewis'). He is a very mediocre pitcher who experienced some 'luck' earlier in the season. His .281 BABIP proves that he's been somewhat lucky. Well his luck ran out in his last outing against the Rangers and I see no reason why Texas won't get to Hughes again tonight.
Keep in mind that Yankees are only averaging 6.25 hits per game in their last 4 games. Rangers on the other hand are averaging 12.25 hits per game in the same time-span. That's twice as many!. They even outhit New York in the last outing, 13 to 9, but had trouble bringing guys in. For the series New York is batting .217 and 8 for 51 (.157) with RISP. In comparison, Texas is hitting .320 and 16 for 46 (.348) with RISP. Big difference here....
Unfortunately for Yankee backers, all the numbers support the Rangers in this one. Rangers' players are playing loose, they're hitting the ball well, and they're at home. Sure, I know they've won more on the road than at home in these playoffs, but that's an anomaly. Home field advantage will play a role in this one as well. I know it feels warm and fuzzy inside to take the Yankees in this one, hoping for an epic rematch of Lee and Pettitte. Unfortunately, it will not happen. Rangers close off the series and lineup their rotation for the World Series with Lee going in game 1.
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BOL Pal! 
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