13 of the past 17 teams to win the title were ranked 53.5 or better.
Since 1980 of the 46 teams to win the title 8 were below both a 6 rating in PR I and a 53.5 rating in PR II.
But 4 of those 8 were defending champs who have a strong history of regressing after their championship year.
So only 4 teams in 46 years could win the title below both 6 and 53.5. And remember the 2023 Nuggets were one of those 4 playing the weakest group of teams that I charted going back to 1997.
And very likely going back much further.
Bulls played the highest rated group of teams.
Lebron played a very weak group of teams while making the finals. Many teams under 5 and 4.
1
POWER RATING II ....................
1. Pistons 55.2
2. Spurs 55.01
3. Celtics 55
4. Knicks 54.91
5. Rockets 54.85
6. OKC 54.71
7. Nuggets 52
8. Twolves 51.75
13 of the past 17 teams to win the title were ranked 53.5 or better.
Since 1980 of the 46 teams to win the title 8 were below both a 6 rating in PR I and a 53.5 rating in PR II.
But 4 of those 8 were defending champs who have a strong history of regressing after their championship year.
So only 4 teams in 46 years could win the title below both 6 and 53.5. And remember the 2023 Nuggets were one of those 4 playing the weakest group of teams that I charted going back to 1997.
And very likely going back much further.
Bulls played the highest rated group of teams.
Lebron played a very weak group of teams while making the finals. Many teams under 5 and 4.
Lakers -1.57 over Rockets ....with Luka and Reaves
How many pts is Luka and Reaves worth ? With a 5.5 line I'd say it is a pass.
The one play appears to be Knicks over the Hawks.
Maybe the Hawks have played better in the 2cd half especially after getting rid of Young.
I'd have to look more into that. But I'd pass on game 1 and back the Knicks in game 2 depending if they lose or fail to cover game 1 and depending the line.
2
MY LINES ............
Nuggets -5.69 over Twolves
Knicks -7.94 over Hawks
Cavs -4.98 over Raptors
Lakers -1.57 over Rockets ....with Luka and Reaves
How many pts is Luka and Reaves worth ? With a 5.5 line I'd say it is a pass.
The one play appears to be Knicks over the Hawks.
Maybe the Hawks have played better in the 2cd half especially after getting rid of Young.
I'd have to look more into that. But I'd pass on game 1 and back the Knicks in game 2 depending if they lose or fail to cover game 1 and depending the line.
There is an alien out there swatting away everthing in site.
Spurs defensive shooting efficiency %, which includes 2 pt shots, 3 pt, FT and TO. The ability to defend these shots to limit lower shooting % numbers, the ability to do this while not sending opps to the line especially the best shooting opps, and the ability to generate TO's while defending these shots.
Spurs 48.67 %........ full season.
Last 27 games after the all-star break ....48.05%. Ranks only 3rd.
Pistons rank 2cd 47.37%
OKC ranks 1st 46.33% historically strong defensive team. Over 1% better then 2cd best and 1.7% better then 3rd best.
No other team is below 48.7%
If there is any alien defensive team in this years playoffs it belongs to OKC.
Nuggets bring up the rear of the teams i Posted PR's in
Just over 51%.
While LA is like 50.85%, easily the 2 weakest defensive teams of the top 10 teams.
I did do a brief look up of how champions rank defensively and they rank very strong each year I looked up. But need to get some numbers to help us understand how much this matters.
1
Who's got the best defense ?
There is an alien out there swatting away everthing in site.
Spurs defensive shooting efficiency %, which includes 2 pt shots, 3 pt, FT and TO. The ability to defend these shots to limit lower shooting % numbers, the ability to do this while not sending opps to the line especially the best shooting opps, and the ability to generate TO's while defending these shots.
Spurs 48.67 %........ full season.
Last 27 games after the all-star break ....48.05%. Ranks only 3rd.
Pistons rank 2cd 47.37%
OKC ranks 1st 46.33% historically strong defensive team. Over 1% better then 2cd best and 1.7% better then 3rd best.
No other team is below 48.7%
If there is any alien defensive team in this years playoffs it belongs to OKC.
Nuggets bring up the rear of the teams i Posted PR's in
Just over 51%.
While LA is like 50.85%, easily the 2 weakest defensive teams of the top 10 teams.
I did do a brief look up of how champions rank defensively and they rank very strong each year I looked up. But need to get some numbers to help us understand how much this matters.
I did not run Spurs numbers after the break. Had I done that not only would they be no. 1 but on an all-time great rating.
However, that would only be over 27 games not sustaining that level for 82 games. Doubt they could of done that.
Based on those 27 games the Spurs would be right there with the Bulls as one of only 2 teams that could produce a very strong shooting efficiency differential while at the same time be very strong at rebounding.
If the Spurs are capable of this over 82 games in the future we may be looking at another Bulls dynasty type team.
As for the Pistons who I believe are being vastly overlooked the one issue I have with them is that have not won a single playoff series yet with their core group of key players.
From what I looked up it is not very common for a team to make the Finals having never won a single playoff series in the 2 seasons before being ranked no. 1 in my PR'S.
I do think they are going to surprise alot of people though who are doubting them.
1
Pistons rank no. 1 in PR II.
I did not run Spurs numbers after the break. Had I done that not only would they be no. 1 but on an all-time great rating.
However, that would only be over 27 games not sustaining that level for 82 games. Doubt they could of done that.
Based on those 27 games the Spurs would be right there with the Bulls as one of only 2 teams that could produce a very strong shooting efficiency differential while at the same time be very strong at rebounding.
If the Spurs are capable of this over 82 games in the future we may be looking at another Bulls dynasty type team.
As for the Pistons who I believe are being vastly overlooked the one issue I have with them is that have not won a single playoff series yet with their core group of key players.
From what I looked up it is not very common for a team to make the Finals having never won a single playoff series in the 2 seasons before being ranked no. 1 in my PR'S.
I do think they are going to surprise alot of people though who are doubting them.
There are 4 teams with the common denominators of past NBA champs.
OKC, Spurs, Pistons and Celtics.
These teams when playing a team without the common denominators win about 65 % of those series.
This based on more recent history.
No Nuggets, No LA, no Twolves in sight.
It was much higher % in the past. Possible there could have been a regression recently or just the results of today's era of 3 pt shooting, spreading the court ball.
These teams mostly only lose to each other .
2
There are 4 teams with the common denominators of past NBA champs.
OKC, Spurs, Pistons and Celtics.
These teams when playing a team without the common denominators win about 65 % of those series.
This based on more recent history.
No Nuggets, No LA, no Twolves in sight.
It was much higher % in the past. Possible there could have been a regression recently or just the results of today's era of 3 pt shooting, spreading the court ball.
Power Rating I ................... 1a Spurs 11.68 ....... but only final 27 games 1b Okc 10.51 2. Spurs 7.83 .... full season 3. Pistons 7.19 4. Celtics 6.94 5. Knicks 5.87 6. Nuggets 5.31 7. Rockets 4.81 8. Twolves 3.62 9 . Cavs 3.49 Here's the deal ............... 12 of the past 15 years the team won the title was 4th or better. 3 exceptions..... 2011 Mavs 7th only because of choke job by LeBron. 2020 LA 6th during covid when players could opt out with no fans in seats. 2023 Nuggets 5th but was weakest group of playoff teams with no team rated over 6 or over 53.5 in PR II which is a rarity. Nuggets beat the lowest ranked group of teams to win title ave rating of 2.34. 2023 is one of only 2 season that the lowest ranked team in the playoffs (16th of 16 teams) according to PR I made the finals. 11 of 15 years team won title was over a 6 rating All top 4 teams are rated over 6. If you think the Nuggets or Knicks or Twolves or Lakers will win the title you are highly likely going to be disappointed.
1
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Power Rating I ................... 1a Spurs 11.68 ....... but only final 27 games 1b Okc 10.51 2. Spurs 7.83 .... full season 3. Pistons 7.19 4. Celtics 6.94 5. Knicks 5.87 6. Nuggets 5.31 7. Rockets 4.81 8. Twolves 3.62 9 . Cavs 3.49 Here's the deal ............... 12 of the past 15 years the team won the title was 4th or better. 3 exceptions..... 2011 Mavs 7th only because of choke job by LeBron. 2020 LA 6th during covid when players could opt out with no fans in seats. 2023 Nuggets 5th but was weakest group of playoff teams with no team rated over 6 or over 53.5 in PR II which is a rarity. Nuggets beat the lowest ranked group of teams to win title ave rating of 2.34. 2023 is one of only 2 season that the lowest ranked team in the playoffs (16th of 16 teams) according to PR I made the finals. 11 of 15 years team won title was over a 6 rating All top 4 teams are rated over 6. If you think the Nuggets or Knicks or Twolves or Lakers will win the title you are highly likely going to be disappointed.
Not trying to downgrade the infos you spend so much giving out trying to help the forum, I do think you are very good analytical stats person to have and an asset to us all. Just like to point this out and see what you think if you believe the game in the last few yrs have changed drastically due to the 3pts shooting and a guy like Joker having an easier time making assist but u mentioned probably wouldn’t have as much success back years ago before this 3pts shooting era changing the game, my question is then wouldn’t your PR 1 & 2 datas being used probably won’t be as useful since certain aspect of the game has changed that probably affect the PR ratings now vs PR ratings of team years ago playing different style of game?
0
Not trying to downgrade the infos you spend so much giving out trying to help the forum, I do think you are very good analytical stats person to have and an asset to us all. Just like to point this out and see what you think if you believe the game in the last few yrs have changed drastically due to the 3pts shooting and a guy like Joker having an easier time making assist but u mentioned probably wouldn’t have as much success back years ago before this 3pts shooting era changing the game, my question is then wouldn’t your PR 1 & 2 datas being used probably won’t be as useful since certain aspect of the game has changed that probably affect the PR ratings now vs PR ratings of team years ago playing different style of game?
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Power Rating I ................... 1a Spurs 11.68 ....... but only final 27 games 1b Okc 10.51 2. Spurs 7.83 .... full season 3. Pistons 7.19 4. Celtics 6.94 5. Knicks 5.87 6. Nuggets 5.31 7. Rockets 4.81 8. Twolves 3.62 9 . Cavs 3.49 Here's the deal ............... 12 of the past 15 years the team won the title was 4th or better. 3 exceptions..... 2011 Mavs 7th only because of choke job by LeBron. 2020 LA 6th during covid when players could opt out with no fans in seats. 2023 Nuggets 5th but was weakest group of playoff teams with no team rated over 6 or over 53.5 in PR II which is a rarity. Nuggets beat the lowest ranked group of teams to win title ave rating of 2.34. 2023 is one of only 2 season that the lowest ranked team in the playoffs (16th of 16 teams) according to PR I made the finals. 11 of 15 years team won title was over a 6 rating All top 4 teams are rated over 6. If you think the Nuggets or Knicks or Twolves or Lakers will win the title you are highly likely going to be disappointed.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Power Rating I ................... 1a Spurs 11.68 ....... but only final 27 games 1b Okc 10.51 2. Spurs 7.83 .... full season 3. Pistons 7.19 4. Celtics 6.94 5. Knicks 5.87 6. Nuggets 5.31 7. Rockets 4.81 8. Twolves 3.62 9 . Cavs 3.49 Here's the deal ............... 12 of the past 15 years the team won the title was 4th or better. 3 exceptions..... 2011 Mavs 7th only because of choke job by LeBron. 2020 LA 6th during covid when players could opt out with no fans in seats. 2023 Nuggets 5th but was weakest group of playoff teams with no team rated over 6 or over 53.5 in PR II which is a rarity. Nuggets beat the lowest ranked group of teams to win title ave rating of 2.34. 2023 is one of only 2 season that the lowest ranked team in the playoffs (16th of 16 teams) according to PR I made the finals. 11 of 15 years team won title was over a 6 rating All top 4 teams are rated over 6. If you think the Nuggets or Knicks or Twolves or Lakers will win the title you are highly likely going to be disappointed.
They measure areas differently. PR I is best for creating my lines whereas PR II measures balance between shooting efficiency and rebounding.
The better teams in either PR by a given amount wins the series about 80% of the time in the right spots which we will get to those spots when they come up.
They both have a use ....................
2
Quote Originally Posted by ginx:
what are the reasons to have two separate pr
They measure areas differently. PR I is best for creating my lines whereas PR II measures balance between shooting efficiency and rebounding.
The better teams in either PR by a given amount wins the series about 80% of the time in the right spots which we will get to those spots when they come up.
Not trying to downgrade the infos you spend so much giving out trying to help the forum, I do think you are very good analytical stats person to have and an asset to us all. Just like to point this out and see what you think if you believe the game in the last few yrs have changed drastically due to the 3pts shooting and a guy like Joker having an easier time making assist but u mentioned probably wouldn’t have as much success back years ago before this 3pts shooting era changing the game, my question is then wouldn’t your PR 1 & 2 datas being used probably won’t be as useful since certain aspect of the game has changed that probably affect the PR ratings now vs PR ratings of team years ago playing different style of game?
Great question .............
What I found over the years is the key indicators are still the key indicators, it does not matter the style of play or era.
Shooting efficiency has the highest correlation to winning and the best predictive value.
Rebounding is 2cd best.
The team that wins the shooting efficiency battle as I measure it in a game goes on to win that game roughly 95% of the time.
The only way a team out-played in that indicator could win is they'd have to out-rebound the team to a larger degree then they were out-shot, meaning getting more possesions with more shots.
So both PR's still measure these indicators.
So I have adjusted my common denominators of past champs to reflect this.
The higher the shooting efficiency the lower rebounding can be, the lower shooting efficiency the better rebounding must be.
With the much higher shooting efficiency differential today rebounding can be lower then back in the 80's or 90's and we have seen this happen with today's NBA champs.
But it has pretty much worked this way since the 80's and 90's even in the early 2000's teams went over 4% shooting efficiency differential were not strong rebounding teams either. 4% being a great number back in 80's and 90's and early 2000's.
There is only 1 team that has done it multiple times, strong shooting efficiency differential and strong rebounding. That is it, just 1 team since 1980.
And that team was led by MJ.
I have actually posted about this a few times on the site in the past.
1
Quote Originally Posted by Chauster:
Not trying to downgrade the infos you spend so much giving out trying to help the forum, I do think you are very good analytical stats person to have and an asset to us all. Just like to point this out and see what you think if you believe the game in the last few yrs have changed drastically due to the 3pts shooting and a guy like Joker having an easier time making assist but u mentioned probably wouldn’t have as much success back years ago before this 3pts shooting era changing the game, my question is then wouldn’t your PR 1 & 2 datas being used probably won’t be as useful since certain aspect of the game has changed that probably affect the PR ratings now vs PR ratings of team years ago playing different style of game?
Great question .............
What I found over the years is the key indicators are still the key indicators, it does not matter the style of play or era.
Shooting efficiency has the highest correlation to winning and the best predictive value.
Rebounding is 2cd best.
The team that wins the shooting efficiency battle as I measure it in a game goes on to win that game roughly 95% of the time.
The only way a team out-played in that indicator could win is they'd have to out-rebound the team to a larger degree then they were out-shot, meaning getting more possesions with more shots.
So both PR's still measure these indicators.
So I have adjusted my common denominators of past champs to reflect this.
The higher the shooting efficiency the lower rebounding can be, the lower shooting efficiency the better rebounding must be.
With the much higher shooting efficiency differential today rebounding can be lower then back in the 80's or 90's and we have seen this happen with today's NBA champs.
But it has pretty much worked this way since the 80's and 90's even in the early 2000's teams went over 4% shooting efficiency differential were not strong rebounding teams either. 4% being a great number back in 80's and 90's and early 2000's.
There is only 1 team that has done it multiple times, strong shooting efficiency differential and strong rebounding. That is it, just 1 team since 1980.
And that team was led by MJ.
I have actually posted about this a few times on the site in the past.
The first team to go over a 5% shooting efficiency differential was the 2008 Celtics.
Prior to that, 4% would be considered a very strong shooting efficiency differential.
There have been 9 teams 5% or better since 2008.
2013 saw 2 teams do it so in 8 years , 7 times these teams won the title.
The only team to lose which was in the finals was 2016 Warriors losing game 7 by like 4 pts or so.
The question then is are the Spurs being just over 5% but in a limited number of games a team so good in shooting efficiency differential that we can rate them over 5% for the season ?
I dont know but I'd lean more to not likely.
But Spurs are the better rebounding team which would make these teams closer.
But still favored OKC to win the title barring any injuries to key players obviously which is always the unknown factor.
1
Shooting Efficiency differential...............
1. OKC 6.26% .........2cd best since back in 70's
2a. Spurs 5.36% ..... only final 27 games
2b. Spurs 3.16% .... full season
3. Nuggets 2.75%
4. Pistons 2.65%
5. Celtics 2.45%
6. Twolves 1.95%
7. Knicks 1.81%
8. Cavs 1.71%
9. Raptors 1.66%
10. Hawks 1.59%
11. LA 1.3%
12. Rockets .35%
The first team to go over a 5% shooting efficiency differential was the 2008 Celtics.
Prior to that, 4% would be considered a very strong shooting efficiency differential.
There have been 9 teams 5% or better since 2008.
2013 saw 2 teams do it so in 8 years , 7 times these teams won the title.
The only team to lose which was in the finals was 2016 Warriors losing game 7 by like 4 pts or so.
The question then is are the Spurs being just over 5% but in a limited number of games a team so good in shooting efficiency differential that we can rate them over 5% for the season ?
I dont know but I'd lean more to not likely.
But Spurs are the better rebounding team which would make these teams closer.
But still favored OKC to win the title barring any injuries to key players obviously which is always the unknown factor.
The first team to go over a 5% shooting efficiency differential was the 2008 Celtics.
Ah yes, the year the powerhouse Boston Celtics dragged their head coach Doc Rivers across the finish line. His famously poor playoff coaching caused them to have to go the full 7 games vs. all three of their Eastern conference opponents. And then he rode the accomplishments of his players to future massive head coaching contracts with the gullible Clippers, Sixers, and Bucks, none of who were nearly great enough to win a championship with that 2-ton anchor weighing them down on the sideline.
2
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
The first team to go over a 5% shooting efficiency differential was the 2008 Celtics.
Ah yes, the year the powerhouse Boston Celtics dragged their head coach Doc Rivers across the finish line. His famously poor playoff coaching caused them to have to go the full 7 games vs. all three of their Eastern conference opponents. And then he rode the accomplishments of his players to future massive head coaching contracts with the gullible Clippers, Sixers, and Bucks, none of who were nearly great enough to win a championship with that 2-ton anchor weighing them down on the sideline.
The closest series when we use both PR I & PR II is Cavs VS Raptors. And we see they matchup pretty close in shooting efficiency differential. The info suggests a possible upset in the first round. I won't take action but these do win but not consistent year in year out so the true value is longer term over time. Last year I did have a possible upset Pistons over Knicks which lost. Maybe this year it wins.
I believe if not mistaken Clev is definitely a better rank shooting team and a very good rebounding team especially when both their big man Mobley and Allen are healthy compare to the Raps, Raps seems horrible at 3 pt shooting most games when I looked at final stats against teams with similar record or teams with better record. Raps most of the time seem to get out rebounded and outshot in the 3pt % efficiency. Only thing Raps seems to do well is being unselfish passing the ball to teammates who are in better position to score. Only way Raps win this series imo if they get hot with their 3 pt shooting since they are unlikely to out rebound Clev when both Mobley and Allen are healthy in the lineup which will result in Raps not getting as much 2nd chance scoring. Raps aren’t winning this series unless they get hot & shoot better than Clev from the 3pts line since they are unlikely to out rebound Clev to get more 2nd chance to score if they don’t shoot well from 3pts line.
0
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
The closest series when we use both PR I & PR II is Cavs VS Raptors. And we see they matchup pretty close in shooting efficiency differential. The info suggests a possible upset in the first round. I won't take action but these do win but not consistent year in year out so the true value is longer term over time. Last year I did have a possible upset Pistons over Knicks which lost. Maybe this year it wins.
I believe if not mistaken Clev is definitely a better rank shooting team and a very good rebounding team especially when both their big man Mobley and Allen are healthy compare to the Raps, Raps seems horrible at 3 pt shooting most games when I looked at final stats against teams with similar record or teams with better record. Raps most of the time seem to get out rebounded and outshot in the 3pt % efficiency. Only thing Raps seems to do well is being unselfish passing the ball to teammates who are in better position to score. Only way Raps win this series imo if they get hot with their 3 pt shooting since they are unlikely to out rebound Clev when both Mobley and Allen are healthy in the lineup which will result in Raps not getting as much 2nd chance scoring. Raps aren’t winning this series unless they get hot & shoot better than Clev from the 3pts line since they are unlikely to out rebound Clev to get more 2nd chance to score if they don’t shoot well from 3pts line.
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: The closest series when we use both PR I & PR II is Cavs VS Raptors. And we see they matchup pretty close in shooting efficiency differential. The info suggests a possible upset in the first round. I won't take action but these do win but not consistent year in year out so the true value is longer term over time. Last year I did have a possible upset Pistons over Knicks which lost. Maybe this year it wins. I believe if not mistaken Clev is definitely a better rank shooting team and a very good rebounding team especially when both their big man Mobley and Allen are healthy compare to the Raps, Raps seems horrible at 3 pt shooting most games when I looked at final stats against teams with similar record or teams with better record. Raps most of the time seem to get out rebounded and outshot in the 3pt % efficiency. Only thing Raps seems to do well is being unselfish passing the ball to teammates who are in better position to score. Only way Raps win this series imo if they get hot with their 3 pt shooting since they are unlikely to out rebound Clev when both Mobley and Allen are healthy in the lineup which will result in Raps not getting as much 2nd chance scoring. Raps aren’t winning this series unless they get hot & shoot better than Clev from the 3pts line since they are unlikely to out rebound Clev to get more 2nd chance to score if they don’t shoot well from 3pts line.
Appreciate your comment..................
I'll say this, 2 best rebounds on Cavs player ave of 60.5 games played.
2 BEST rebounders on Raps played ave of 63 games.
Not much difference.
2 Bigs on Cavs ave 16.35 % of all rebounds available. Raps ave 2 bigs is 14.35%.
Cavs do have an advantage.
Now the big difference is the 6, 7, and 8th players in ave minutes per game. Both teams had 7 and 8th pretty close in minutes played per game.
The 2 best rebounders of those 3 are Raps 12.7% to Cavs 9.7%
The 3rd players on both teams are not good rebounder.
Cavs on the season 50.05 %
Raps 49.75%
Cavs do have advantage but not by any significant, meaningful amount and when I look at individual players it appears the same result.
No doubt Cavs are better offensively but you leaving out defense.
Cavs defensive shooting efficiency is 49.8% 3rd worst of all the top teams. That is season long.
And they added Harden a terrible defender who many times does not even try on defense.
Raps are 48.7%.
So Cavs may be better on offense but Raps better on defense with differential being almost even.
1
Quote Originally Posted by Chauster:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: The closest series when we use both PR I & PR II is Cavs VS Raptors. And we see they matchup pretty close in shooting efficiency differential. The info suggests a possible upset in the first round. I won't take action but these do win but not consistent year in year out so the true value is longer term over time. Last year I did have a possible upset Pistons over Knicks which lost. Maybe this year it wins. I believe if not mistaken Clev is definitely a better rank shooting team and a very good rebounding team especially when both their big man Mobley and Allen are healthy compare to the Raps, Raps seems horrible at 3 pt shooting most games when I looked at final stats against teams with similar record or teams with better record. Raps most of the time seem to get out rebounded and outshot in the 3pt % efficiency. Only thing Raps seems to do well is being unselfish passing the ball to teammates who are in better position to score. Only way Raps win this series imo if they get hot with their 3 pt shooting since they are unlikely to out rebound Clev when both Mobley and Allen are healthy in the lineup which will result in Raps not getting as much 2nd chance scoring. Raps aren’t winning this series unless they get hot & shoot better than Clev from the 3pts line since they are unlikely to out rebound Clev to get more 2nd chance to score if they don’t shoot well from 3pts line.
Appreciate your comment..................
I'll say this, 2 best rebounds on Cavs player ave of 60.5 games played.
2 BEST rebounders on Raps played ave of 63 games.
Not much difference.
2 Bigs on Cavs ave 16.35 % of all rebounds available. Raps ave 2 bigs is 14.35%.
Cavs do have an advantage.
Now the big difference is the 6, 7, and 8th players in ave minutes per game. Both teams had 7 and 8th pretty close in minutes played per game.
The 2 best rebounders of those 3 are Raps 12.7% to Cavs 9.7%
The 3rd players on both teams are not good rebounder.
Cavs on the season 50.05 %
Raps 49.75%
Cavs do have advantage but not by any significant, meaningful amount and when I look at individual players it appears the same result.
No doubt Cavs are better offensively but you leaving out defense.
Cavs defensive shooting efficiency is 49.8% 3rd worst of all the top teams. That is season long.
And they added Harden a terrible defender who many times does not even try on defense.
Raps are 48.7%.
So Cavs may be better on offense but Raps better on defense with differential being almost even.
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