Well I changed my mind. Yesterday I said there wasn't enough value but now that the line is over +120 for the Giants, this is enough value for me to play them. Here are the main factors why Giants will win today's game:
#1: Tim Lincecum is a BETTER pitcher than Cliff Lee! HUH?!?! Yes I said it. Looking at only the playoff games, both pitchers are very close from the standpoint of statistics but let's take a look at a slightly larger sample size: last month of the season and the post season, Sept/Oct.
Lee has an ERA of 1.93 while Lincecum sports an ERA of 1.94 in that time-frame. Well this doesn't tell us much, does it? But when we look further we see that Lee had an FIP of 2.47 and xFIP of 3.37 while Lincecum came in at 2.17 FIP (0.40 less) and 2.21 xFIP (1.16 less). The xFIP difference of more than 1 run is very interesting here. In addition, Lincecum has better K/9 ratio (11.23 to 7.71), K/BB ratio (6.5 to 4.0), and a lower E-F (-.22 to -.54). Now another interesting factor is the BABIP for each pitcher. Lincecum's BABIP was .299 in Sept/Oct. This suggests that his #'s were in line with built-in 'luck' that exists in baseball. Lee's BABIP was .236, telling us that he was fairly lucky during this span. With a higher E-F and a really "lucky" BABIP, it's easy to deduct that Lee should regress a bit more than Lincecum going forward.
Ignoring the future regression angle and just looking at these numbers, it's easy to say that Lincecum was the superior pitcher over the last month of the baseball season. And the reason I find this more relevant than just looking at the playoffs, is because we have a larger sample size, thus providing us with a more statistically-significant data.
#2: Lincecum has never faced the starting Rangers lineup (except 1 at-bat from VG) Besides Vlad Guerrero's one at bat against Lincecum, the only other person to face him was Jeff Francoeur who went 3 for 16 life-time off him. Francouer is not starting today. This is a huge advantage no matter how you slice it. We all get excited about this type of a scenario when a rookie pitcher goes on the mound during the regular season, so why wouldn't we be just as excited now, when one of the best pitchers in baseball goes against hitters that have never seen him before? Lee on the other hand has faced a number of Giants hitters who bat .270 with OBP of .308, SLG .505 and OPS of .813 life-time off him. These numbers are pretty decent and provide another advantage in backing the Giants tonight.
#3: Giants bullpen Noone can argue that Giants pen is better: 2.39 ERA at home and 1.1 WHIP. Rangers pen: 3.23 ERA on the road and 1.2 WHIP. How much of a factor will bullpens play in game 1? Probably not a lot. I do expect both pitchers to go at least 7 innings. But even 2 innings of bullpen work could make a big difference in a very tight game.
#4: No DH in this one Another factor and an important one to think about. Vlad Guerrero will have to play right field in this game, thus putting Francouer on the bench. (Not sure if you remember, but Francouer was a gold-glover with the Braves). So now you weaken your defense on the field and who knows how that will impact Vlad's at-bats.
#5: Candlestick Park This is a spacious park which will help neutralize Rangers' bats a bit. Texas has a number of hitters with HR-power, but what might be a HR at Rangers Ballpark, would be a routine fly-ball here. Weather should be a cool 58 degrees for this game and the ball won't travel as well at night as it does during the day.
#6: HOME FIELD This is probably one of the biggest factors for the Giants. San Fran is 52-34 at home this season for a 60% winning %-age. Rangers are 44-43 on the road for a 50% winning %-age. Home field still does matter in my opinion, and it will play a role here.
Yesterday I felt Giants were the right play but at +107 odds there wasn't much value on backing them: +107 odds is equivalent to Giants winning 48% of the time. Now that the line moved to +125 (BoDog) there's plenty of value in backing this squad: +125 odds is equivalent to Giants winning 44% of the time. Really? With all these factors favoring the Giants, do you really think they should only be able to win 44% of the time in this situation? I don't see it. The fact that the bookies are telling us that at -132 odds, Rangers should win this matchup 57% of the time is even more ludicrous. Giants +125 is the play tonight as I see them winning a tight low-scoring game.
#24: Giants +125 - Series Play
I gotta make this play. I feel strongly that Giants will win today's game. I also expect Matt Cain to take care of business in game 2. 2-0 start for the Giants with home-field edge would be huge.
All in all, Giants have better pitching, better bullpen, and home field advantage. To me these are the most critical factors in winning the World Series. At +125 price there's definitely value in backing this resilient squad.
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#23: San Francisco Giants +125
Well I changed my mind. Yesterday I said there wasn't enough value but now that the line is over +120 for the Giants, this is enough value for me to play them. Here are the main factors why Giants will win today's game:
#1: Tim Lincecum is a BETTER pitcher than Cliff Lee! HUH?!?! Yes I said it. Looking at only the playoff games, both pitchers are very close from the standpoint of statistics but let's take a look at a slightly larger sample size: last month of the season and the post season, Sept/Oct.
Lee has an ERA of 1.93 while Lincecum sports an ERA of 1.94 in that time-frame. Well this doesn't tell us much, does it? But when we look further we see that Lee had an FIP of 2.47 and xFIP of 3.37 while Lincecum came in at 2.17 FIP (0.40 less) and 2.21 xFIP (1.16 less). The xFIP difference of more than 1 run is very interesting here. In addition, Lincecum has better K/9 ratio (11.23 to 7.71), K/BB ratio (6.5 to 4.0), and a lower E-F (-.22 to -.54). Now another interesting factor is the BABIP for each pitcher. Lincecum's BABIP was .299 in Sept/Oct. This suggests that his #'s were in line with built-in 'luck' that exists in baseball. Lee's BABIP was .236, telling us that he was fairly lucky during this span. With a higher E-F and a really "lucky" BABIP, it's easy to deduct that Lee should regress a bit more than Lincecum going forward.
Ignoring the future regression angle and just looking at these numbers, it's easy to say that Lincecum was the superior pitcher over the last month of the baseball season. And the reason I find this more relevant than just looking at the playoffs, is because we have a larger sample size, thus providing us with a more statistically-significant data.
#2: Lincecum has never faced the starting Rangers lineup (except 1 at-bat from VG) Besides Vlad Guerrero's one at bat against Lincecum, the only other person to face him was Jeff Francoeur who went 3 for 16 life-time off him. Francouer is not starting today. This is a huge advantage no matter how you slice it. We all get excited about this type of a scenario when a rookie pitcher goes on the mound during the regular season, so why wouldn't we be just as excited now, when one of the best pitchers in baseball goes against hitters that have never seen him before? Lee on the other hand has faced a number of Giants hitters who bat .270 with OBP of .308, SLG .505 and OPS of .813 life-time off him. These numbers are pretty decent and provide another advantage in backing the Giants tonight.
#3: Giants bullpen Noone can argue that Giants pen is better: 2.39 ERA at home and 1.1 WHIP. Rangers pen: 3.23 ERA on the road and 1.2 WHIP. How much of a factor will bullpens play in game 1? Probably not a lot. I do expect both pitchers to go at least 7 innings. But even 2 innings of bullpen work could make a big difference in a very tight game.
#4: No DH in this one Another factor and an important one to think about. Vlad Guerrero will have to play right field in this game, thus putting Francouer on the bench. (Not sure if you remember, but Francouer was a gold-glover with the Braves). So now you weaken your defense on the field and who knows how that will impact Vlad's at-bats.
#5: Candlestick Park This is a spacious park which will help neutralize Rangers' bats a bit. Texas has a number of hitters with HR-power, but what might be a HR at Rangers Ballpark, would be a routine fly-ball here. Weather should be a cool 58 degrees for this game and the ball won't travel as well at night as it does during the day.
#6: HOME FIELD This is probably one of the biggest factors for the Giants. San Fran is 52-34 at home this season for a 60% winning %-age. Rangers are 44-43 on the road for a 50% winning %-age. Home field still does matter in my opinion, and it will play a role here.
Yesterday I felt Giants were the right play but at +107 odds there wasn't much value on backing them: +107 odds is equivalent to Giants winning 48% of the time. Now that the line moved to +125 (BoDog) there's plenty of value in backing this squad: +125 odds is equivalent to Giants winning 44% of the time. Really? With all these factors favoring the Giants, do you really think they should only be able to win 44% of the time in this situation? I don't see it. The fact that the bookies are telling us that at -132 odds, Rangers should win this matchup 57% of the time is even more ludicrous. Giants +125 is the play tonight as I see them winning a tight low-scoring game.
#24: Giants +125 - Series Play
I gotta make this play. I feel strongly that Giants will win today's game. I also expect Matt Cain to take care of business in game 2. 2-0 start for the Giants with home-field edge would be huge.
All in all, Giants have better pitching, better bullpen, and home field advantage. To me these are the most critical factors in winning the World Series. At +125 price there's definitely value in backing this resilient squad.
There is just something about Matt Cain at home: 2.6 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, only 90 hits in 121.3 innings pitched (0.74 hits per inning), 10 HR's (1 HR every 12.13 innings), 101 SO to 33 BB's (3.06 K/BB ratio), 9-4 record
Let's compare these stats to Wilson's stats on the road this year: 3.03 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 71 hits in 101 innings (0.70 hits per inning), 6 HR's (1 HR every 16.8 innings), 84 SO to 53 BB's (1.58 K/BB ratio), 5-6 record.
The stats are very similar. Let's look at advanced stats between the two.
These stats are also eerily similar for the 2 pitchers. But the thing that keeps sticking out is the K/BB ratios for the two. When comparing the home/away splits, Cain's K/BB ratio is 2x that of Wilson's (3.06 to 1.58). This is a considerable difference here. As I was watching yesterday's game, I couldn't help but notice how patient Giants pitchers were at the plate. It seemed that every hitter was able to work a 3-2 count. Sure the Giants did have 12 strike-outs (7 off Lee) but the fact that they made the pitchers work for 'em was very impressive to me. Facing a pitcher like Wilson, who likes to walk his share of hitters, is an important factor in this one.
Here's another factor that shouldn't be overlooked: Wilson holds left-handed hitters to .144 BA / .400 OPS while righties average .236 BA / .679 OPS off him. This is a really large difference of almost .100 points in BA and .279 in OPS. For comparison sake, Cain holds lefties to .225 BA / .663 OPS and righties to .217 BA / .629 OPS. He holds all hitters to .208 BA / .591 OPS at home this year. Both, Rangers and Giants are predominantly a "righty" lineup. The fact that Wilson is so much worse against righties than lefties is another factor in Giants' favor in this one.
Speaking of Wilson, he uses Matt Treanor as his personal catcher when he is on the mound. Tonight, Treanor will be behind the plate. Lifetime, Treanor is 1-for-7 with a single and a walk against Cain. Those at-bats came in 2007 and 2008 when he was with the Marlins. The significance of this is that Molina will not be in the lineup tonight. Molina has been on fire in the postseason batting .353 (12 for 34) with 2 HR's and 8 RBI. In yesterday's game he went 2 for 4 with 2 runs and 1 RBI. Taking a hot hitter like Molina out of a lineup favors the Giants once again.
Finally I want to mention Vlad Guerrero. I had a hunch that he might be a liability in the right field and he didn't disappoint. His fielding was horrible and he had 2 crucial errors in this ball-game. Washington is keeping Guerrero in the lineup but he really has no choice in my opinion. His potential replacements, Francoeur and Cantu, are lifetime 2 for 26 off Cain (.077 BA). Today's game should be low scoring, and Guerrero's "prowess" in the outfield could make a big difference in this one.
I listed a number of factors that favor the Giants tonight. At -110 odds backing a pitcher of Cain's quality, pitching at home, is excellent value. So for the final factor I want to mention the form of both of these starting pitchers in their last 2 games of the postseason.
* Wilson has given up 12 hits, 8 ER's (9 runs), 3 HR's, 6 BB's and only 6 K's in his last 12 innings of work. His ERA in these 2 starts is 6.0 and WHIP of 1.5. * Cain has given up 9 hits, 0 ER's (1 run), 0 HR's, 5 BB's to 11 K's in his last 13.7 innings of work. His ERA is these starts was ZERO and WHIP of 1.0
I don't see how you can go against the Giants in this one. San Fran is the play tonight to go up 2-0 in the World Series.
There is just something about Matt Cain at home: 2.6 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, only 90 hits in 121.3 innings pitched (0.74 hits per inning), 10 HR's (1 HR every 12.13 innings), 101 SO to 33 BB's (3.06 K/BB ratio), 9-4 record
Let's compare these stats to Wilson's stats on the road this year: 3.03 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 71 hits in 101 innings (0.70 hits per inning), 6 HR's (1 HR every 16.8 innings), 84 SO to 53 BB's (1.58 K/BB ratio), 5-6 record.
The stats are very similar. Let's look at advanced stats between the two.
These stats are also eerily similar for the 2 pitchers. But the thing that keeps sticking out is the K/BB ratios for the two. When comparing the home/away splits, Cain's K/BB ratio is 2x that of Wilson's (3.06 to 1.58). This is a considerable difference here. As I was watching yesterday's game, I couldn't help but notice how patient Giants pitchers were at the plate. It seemed that every hitter was able to work a 3-2 count. Sure the Giants did have 12 strike-outs (7 off Lee) but the fact that they made the pitchers work for 'em was very impressive to me. Facing a pitcher like Wilson, who likes to walk his share of hitters, is an important factor in this one.
Here's another factor that shouldn't be overlooked: Wilson holds left-handed hitters to .144 BA / .400 OPS while righties average .236 BA / .679 OPS off him. This is a really large difference of almost .100 points in BA and .279 in OPS. For comparison sake, Cain holds lefties to .225 BA / .663 OPS and righties to .217 BA / .629 OPS. He holds all hitters to .208 BA / .591 OPS at home this year. Both, Rangers and Giants are predominantly a "righty" lineup. The fact that Wilson is so much worse against righties than lefties is another factor in Giants' favor in this one.
Speaking of Wilson, he uses Matt Treanor as his personal catcher when he is on the mound. Tonight, Treanor will be behind the plate. Lifetime, Treanor is 1-for-7 with a single and a walk against Cain. Those at-bats came in 2007 and 2008 when he was with the Marlins. The significance of this is that Molina will not be in the lineup tonight. Molina has been on fire in the postseason batting .353 (12 for 34) with 2 HR's and 8 RBI. In yesterday's game he went 2 for 4 with 2 runs and 1 RBI. Taking a hot hitter like Molina out of a lineup favors the Giants once again.
Finally I want to mention Vlad Guerrero. I had a hunch that he might be a liability in the right field and he didn't disappoint. His fielding was horrible and he had 2 crucial errors in this ball-game. Washington is keeping Guerrero in the lineup but he really has no choice in my opinion. His potential replacements, Francoeur and Cantu, are lifetime 2 for 26 off Cain (.077 BA). Today's game should be low scoring, and Guerrero's "prowess" in the outfield could make a big difference in this one.
I listed a number of factors that favor the Giants tonight. At -110 odds backing a pitcher of Cain's quality, pitching at home, is excellent value. So for the final factor I want to mention the form of both of these starting pitchers in their last 2 games of the postseason.
* Wilson has given up 12 hits, 8 ER's (9 runs), 3 HR's, 6 BB's and only 6 K's in his last 12 innings of work. His ERA in these 2 starts is 6.0 and WHIP of 1.5. * Cain has given up 9 hits, 0 ER's (1 run), 0 HR's, 5 BB's to 11 K's in his last 13.7 innings of work. His ERA is these starts was ZERO and WHIP of 1.0
I don't see how you can go against the Giants in this one. San Fran is the play tonight to go up 2-0 in the World Series.
I LIKE SOME PROP BETS ALSO... WHAT U THINK ABOUT A SCORELESS 1ST INNING
AND TEAMS TOTALS...TEXAS IS AT O 3 - 140/U 3 +110
AND SF IS 0/U 3.5 115
I WAS ALSO THINKING ABOUT GIANST TO WIN OUT RIGHT
AND UNDER TOTAL ..... BUT HOW ABOUT 1ST H TOTAL...
THNX
I think it will be a low scoring game so I lean UNDER 7 and No Score in 1st inning. Probably UNDER and Giants winning in 1st half...would stay away from palying O/U on each individual team...
good luck buddy
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Quote Originally Posted by shark_apreza:
I LIKE SOME PROP BETS ALSO... WHAT U THINK ABOUT A SCORELESS 1ST INNING
AND TEAMS TOTALS...TEXAS IS AT O 3 - 140/U 3 +110
AND SF IS 0/U 3.5 115
I WAS ALSO THINKING ABOUT GIANST TO WIN OUT RIGHT
AND UNDER TOTAL ..... BUT HOW ABOUT 1ST H TOTAL...
THNX
I think it will be a low scoring game so I lean UNDER 7 and No Score in 1st inning. Probably UNDER and Giants winning in 1st half...would stay away from palying O/U on each individual team...
Unfortunately I had Texas gm 1--but I hedged part of it with Giants to win series at +130.
As much as I was shocked how many runs the Giants scored, I am equally shocked that Cain opened up @ -125 (most places)--and the line then proceed to go downward to -110. Got him at the apex and feel really good about SF going back to Texas up 2-0. If the price is right--and the Giants win gm 2--a Texas to win the series might be in order for a really nice payout...hoping they can win at least 2 of 3 at home. It's all about getting the best #s at the right time. Good luck Giant backers tonight!
0
Nice playoff run, bodio.
Unfortunately I had Texas gm 1--but I hedged part of it with Giants to win series at +130.
As much as I was shocked how many runs the Giants scored, I am equally shocked that Cain opened up @ -125 (most places)--and the line then proceed to go downward to -110. Got him at the apex and feel really good about SF going back to Texas up 2-0. If the price is right--and the Giants win gm 2--a Texas to win the series might be in order for a really nice payout...hoping they can win at least 2 of 3 at home. It's all about getting the best #s at the right time. Good luck Giant backers tonight!
I think it will be a low scoring game so I lean UNDER 7 and No Score in 1st inning. Probably UNDER and Giants winning in 1st half...would stay away from palying O/U on each individual team...
good luck buddy
appreciate it tx bol
0
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
I think it will be a low scoring game so I lean UNDER 7 and No Score in 1st inning. Probably UNDER and Giants winning in 1st half...would stay away from palying O/U on each individual team...
Thar she (the Texas bullpen) blows!!! (Again!) Nice call on a very unpopular side. I am perplexed why so many people liked Texas. It's not like the Giants were bad at home and Cain was "shakey" in the postseason.
0
Thar she (the Texas bullpen) blows!!! (Again!) Nice call on a very unpopular side. I am perplexed why so many people liked Texas. It's not like the Giants were bad at home and Cain was "shakey" in the postseason.
Thar she (the Texas bullpen) blows!!! (Again!) Nice call on a very unpopular side. I am perplexed why so many people liked Texas. It's not like the Giants were bad at home and Cain was "shakey" in the postseason.
The reason the public was on Texas is because public perception assumed that the Rangers won't lose 2 in a row. When you dig into the numbers and current form, then the right play was on the Giants in this one.
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Quote Originally Posted by LakeTahoeKid:
Thar she (the Texas bullpen) blows!!! (Again!) Nice call on a very unpopular side. I am perplexed why so many people liked Texas. It's not like the Giants were bad at home and Cain was "shakey" in the postseason.
The reason the public was on Texas is because public perception assumed that the Rangers won't lose 2 in a row. When you dig into the numbers and current form, then the right play was on the Giants in this one.
Unfortunately I had Texas gm 1--but I hedged part of it with Giants to win series at +130.
As much as I was shocked how many runs the Giants scored, I am equally shocked that Cain opened up @ -125 (most places)--and the line then proceed to go downward to -110. Got him at the apex and feel really good about SF going back to Texas up 2-0. If the price is right--and the Giants win gm 2--a Texas to win the series might be in order for a really nice payout...hoping they can win at least 2 of 3 at home. It's all about getting the best #s at the right time. Good luck Giant backers tonight!
That's very interesting. So you thought Rangers would win game 1 but you still felt that the Giants will take the series? Interesting, since most people felt that if the Rangers took game 1, then they'd be in the drivers seat...
0
Quote Originally Posted by LakeTahoeKid:
Nice playoff run, bodio.
Unfortunately I had Texas gm 1--but I hedged part of it with Giants to win series at +130.
As much as I was shocked how many runs the Giants scored, I am equally shocked that Cain opened up @ -125 (most places)--and the line then proceed to go downward to -110. Got him at the apex and feel really good about SF going back to Texas up 2-0. If the price is right--and the Giants win gm 2--a Texas to win the series might be in order for a really nice payout...hoping they can win at least 2 of 3 at home. It's all about getting the best #s at the right time. Good luck Giant backers tonight!
That's very interesting. So you thought Rangers would win game 1 but you still felt that the Giants will take the series? Interesting, since most people felt that if the Rangers took game 1, then they'd be in the drivers seat...
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BOL bodio,gonna play it also! 
lol
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