Hamels
has an ERA of 3.86 and WHIP of 1.429 in his last 3 starts while Cueto
has 7.54 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in the same time-span. Hamels is 6-0 with
an ERA of 1.07 and a WHIP of 0.908 life-time against the Reds. Cueto
has a life-time ERA of 5.96 and a WHIP of 1.279. Keep in mind that this
year he has held them to 1.2 ERA and only 10 hits in 15 innings. This
is his 3rd start against them and I feel the Phillies bats will get to
him today. Some of the bigger hitters in the Phillies lineup have had
success against Cueto: Victorino 5 for 10 (BA .500); Howard 3 for 10
(BA .300); Werth 3 for 9 (BA .333). Hamels has a 3.43 xFIP (11th best)
compared to Cueto's 4.26 (55th in MLB) and his K/BB ratio of 3.46 is way
higher than Cueto's 2.46. Cincy is demoralized after giving away game
2, when they had what seemed like a commanding 4-1 lead late in the
game. Philadelphia saw the Yankees get through last night (I think
Yankees will meet Phillies in the WS) and they'll be extra motivated to
end this one early so that they could rest as well.
Hamels
has an ERA of 3.86 and WHIP of 1.429 in his last 3 starts while Cueto
has 7.54 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in the same time-span. Hamels is 6-0 with
an ERA of 1.07 and a WHIP of 0.908 life-time against the Reds. Cueto
has a life-time ERA of 5.96 and a WHIP of 1.279. Keep in mind that this
year he has held them to 1.2 ERA and only 10 hits in 15 innings. This
is his 3rd start against them and I feel the Phillies bats will get to
him today. Some of the bigger hitters in the Phillies lineup have had
success against Cueto: Victorino 5 for 10 (BA .500); Howard 3 for 10
(BA .300); Werth 3 for 9 (BA .333). Hamels has a 3.43 xFIP (11th best)
compared to Cueto's 4.26 (55th in MLB) and his K/BB ratio of 3.46 is way
higher than Cueto's 2.46. Cincy is demoralized after giving away game
2, when they had what seemed like a commanding 4-1 lead late in the
game. Philadelphia saw the Yankees get through last night (I think
Yankees will meet Phillies in the WS) and they'll be extra motivated to
end this one early so that they could rest as well.
===================================================== #1: San Francisco Giants +130
Both pitchers have been stellar lately with Bumgarner sporting an ERA of 1.53 and WHIP of 1.47 in his last 3 starts and Lowe showing even more impressive numbers of 1.12 ERA and WHIP of 1.37. Looking at their advanced stats, Bumgarner has an FIP of 3.66 (35th best) and xFIP of 4.03. HIs BABIP of .322 is 14th unluckiest and with a stellar K/BB ratio of 3.31 and HR/9 ratio of 0.89, it's expected that his BABIP will regress further to the mean. Lowe has an FIP of 3.89 and a stellar xFIP of 3.65 (15th best). He has also been somewhat unlucky at .312 BABIP even though he has a very high GB% of over 55%. Lowe also keeps the ball in the park evidenced by his HR/9 ratio of 0.84 but walks more batters and strikes out less hitters than Bumgarner -- K/BB ratio of 2.23. All in all, the starting pitchers are fairly equal.
The big difference here is that this will be the 4th time this year that the Giants batters will see Lowe while Bumgarner is making his first appearance against the Braves. The fact that the Atlanta hitters have never seen him is a big advantage. In Lowe's previous 3 starts agaisnt the Giants he has only given up 4 ER's in 17 innings of work. What's concerning though is the amount of walks he has issued in relation to the strike-outs: 12 BB's to 12 K's. In one game against them he issued 7 walks and got only 4 K's. In his last outing he issued 4 walks (6 strike-outs). So far San Fran haven't taken advantage of all these walks issued by Lowe, but all it takes is one big hit at the right time. This is where I feel seeing Lowe for the 4th time will be an advantage for the Giants.
Speaking of walks, Bumgarner has a 7 to 1 K/BB ratio in his last 3 starts (3 walks / 21 strike-outs in 17 innings), and a 4.15 K/BB ratio in all of his starts on the road. Why am I focusing on this so much? Well, because the Braves are really struggling offensively in these playoffs, and if Bumgarner minimizes the number of free passes, it will be that much harder for them to score. So far in the playoffs the Giants are batting .165 with an OBP of .196, while scoring only 2.3 rpg. In comparison, the Giants are batting .225 with an OBP of .300, scoring 2.7 rpg. Not great but significantly better than the Braves. Keep in mind that Heyward got banged up yesterday trying to make a play in the outfield. He said after the game that he had trouble keeping his eyes open, which seems like a mild concussion to me. In any case, he doesn't even have a hit in this series, so the fact that he's at less than 100% will not be of any help in him getting out of his slump.
I know a lot of people think that Bumgarner is a rookie and therefore will struggle here, but I disagree. He is a former 1st round draft pick in 2007 (10th overall) who went 6-3 in road starts this year. Additionally he is well rested, having pitched last on Sept 30th. I know some people will disagree with 'rest' being an advantage for a pitcher, but I'd rather have a well rested pitcher who is facing a weak-hitting lineup for the first time ever, than a pitcher coming off 3-days of rest facing the same lineup for the 4th time this season...
===================================================== #1: San Francisco Giants +130
Both pitchers have been stellar lately with Bumgarner sporting an ERA of 1.53 and WHIP of 1.47 in his last 3 starts and Lowe showing even more impressive numbers of 1.12 ERA and WHIP of 1.37. Looking at their advanced stats, Bumgarner has an FIP of 3.66 (35th best) and xFIP of 4.03. HIs BABIP of .322 is 14th unluckiest and with a stellar K/BB ratio of 3.31 and HR/9 ratio of 0.89, it's expected that his BABIP will regress further to the mean. Lowe has an FIP of 3.89 and a stellar xFIP of 3.65 (15th best). He has also been somewhat unlucky at .312 BABIP even though he has a very high GB% of over 55%. Lowe also keeps the ball in the park evidenced by his HR/9 ratio of 0.84 but walks more batters and strikes out less hitters than Bumgarner -- K/BB ratio of 2.23. All in all, the starting pitchers are fairly equal.
The big difference here is that this will be the 4th time this year that the Giants batters will see Lowe while Bumgarner is making his first appearance against the Braves. The fact that the Atlanta hitters have never seen him is a big advantage. In Lowe's previous 3 starts agaisnt the Giants he has only given up 4 ER's in 17 innings of work. What's concerning though is the amount of walks he has issued in relation to the strike-outs: 12 BB's to 12 K's. In one game against them he issued 7 walks and got only 4 K's. In his last outing he issued 4 walks (6 strike-outs). So far San Fran haven't taken advantage of all these walks issued by Lowe, but all it takes is one big hit at the right time. This is where I feel seeing Lowe for the 4th time will be an advantage for the Giants.
Speaking of walks, Bumgarner has a 7 to 1 K/BB ratio in his last 3 starts (3 walks / 21 strike-outs in 17 innings), and a 4.15 K/BB ratio in all of his starts on the road. Why am I focusing on this so much? Well, because the Braves are really struggling offensively in these playoffs, and if Bumgarner minimizes the number of free passes, it will be that much harder for them to score. So far in the playoffs the Giants are batting .165 with an OBP of .196, while scoring only 2.3 rpg. In comparison, the Giants are batting .225 with an OBP of .300, scoring 2.7 rpg. Not great but significantly better than the Braves. Keep in mind that Heyward got banged up yesterday trying to make a play in the outfield. He said after the game that he had trouble keeping his eyes open, which seems like a mild concussion to me. In any case, he doesn't even have a hit in this series, so the fact that he's at less than 100% will not be of any help in him getting out of his slump.
I know a lot of people think that Bumgarner is a rookie and therefore will struggle here, but I disagree. He is a former 1st round draft pick in 2007 (10th overall) who went 6-3 in road starts this year. Additionally he is well rested, having pitched last on Sept 30th. I know some people will disagree with 'rest' being an advantage for a pitcher, but I'd rather have a well rested pitcher who is facing a weak-hitting lineup for the first time ever, than a pitcher coming off 3-days of rest facing the same lineup for the 4th time this season...
I know some people will disagree with 'rest' being an advantage for a pitcher, but I'd rather have a well rested pitcher who is facing a weak-hitting lineup for the first time ever, than a pitcher coming off 3-days of rest facing the same lineup for the 4th time this season...
well said!
0
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
I know some people will disagree with 'rest' being an advantage for a pitcher, but I'd rather have a well rested pitcher who is facing a weak-hitting lineup for the first time ever, than a pitcher coming off 3-days of rest facing the same lineup for the 4th time this season...
I started out today really wanting to make a play on the Rays in this one. Rays seemingly have gotten some momentum back, their bats have woken up (hitting over .360 in the last 2 games), and they're coming home to play this one. Then I re-read my analysis of game 1 between these 2 teams and realized that the right play here is on the Rangers.
I won't recount all the stats here (you can see them in the first post within this thread if interested) but the basics all favor the Rangers in this one. Rangers hitters have had a lot more success againt Price, than Rays' hitters against Lee. Last game Texas had 9 hits off Price and 2 HR's in 6.7 innings. Actually in the last 3 games against the Rangers, Price has given up 20 hits in 18 innings pitched, with 3 HR's and 11 ER's. Life-time, Price has an ERA of 6.92 and WHIP of 1.6 against Texas. He's actually 0-3 against them. Lee has a life-time ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP of 0.997 against the Rays. Big difference.
Advanced stats are worth repeating as well. Lee has an FIP of 2.58 (2nd best in MLB) and a sick xFIP of 3.23 (6th best). He has a BABIP of .302 and K/BB ratio of 10.28. These numbers are just incredible. Price has an FIP of 3.42 (22nd best) and xFIP of 3.99 (40th in MLB). His K/BB ratio of 2.38 is good but not that great. With a BABIP of .279 and E-F of -.70 (11th worst), Price could be considered to have been pretty lucky this season. What else is interesting is that his LOB% is 80%. League average is around 70% and all this % could do is regress to that mean. (In comparison Lee's LOB% is 68% which shows that he's been a bit unlucky when the runners do reach base against him) I expect the potent Rangers offense to get to Price again tonight, especially since they have had success against him already.
In addition to the pitching and hitting advantage, you can forget about home-field advantage in this game. Both clubs have shown ability to win on the road in this series and Rangers are actually 6-0 in their last 6 on the road.
Finally, I want to point out the final reason why I'm backing the Rangers tonight. Cliff Lee is 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA in six career postseason starts. Let me repeat this: Lee is 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA in 6 postseason starts. For those who think that this game is 50/50 I respectfully disagree. I think all the edges point to the Rangers and I will gladly grab + money here with Cliff Lee...
I started out today really wanting to make a play on the Rays in this one. Rays seemingly have gotten some momentum back, their bats have woken up (hitting over .360 in the last 2 games), and they're coming home to play this one. Then I re-read my analysis of game 1 between these 2 teams and realized that the right play here is on the Rangers.
I won't recount all the stats here (you can see them in the first post within this thread if interested) but the basics all favor the Rangers in this one. Rangers hitters have had a lot more success againt Price, than Rays' hitters against Lee. Last game Texas had 9 hits off Price and 2 HR's in 6.7 innings. Actually in the last 3 games against the Rangers, Price has given up 20 hits in 18 innings pitched, with 3 HR's and 11 ER's. Life-time, Price has an ERA of 6.92 and WHIP of 1.6 against Texas. He's actually 0-3 against them. Lee has a life-time ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP of 0.997 against the Rays. Big difference.
Advanced stats are worth repeating as well. Lee has an FIP of 2.58 (2nd best in MLB) and a sick xFIP of 3.23 (6th best). He has a BABIP of .302 and K/BB ratio of 10.28. These numbers are just incredible. Price has an FIP of 3.42 (22nd best) and xFIP of 3.99 (40th in MLB). His K/BB ratio of 2.38 is good but not that great. With a BABIP of .279 and E-F of -.70 (11th worst), Price could be considered to have been pretty lucky this season. What else is interesting is that his LOB% is 80%. League average is around 70% and all this % could do is regress to that mean. (In comparison Lee's LOB% is 68% which shows that he's been a bit unlucky when the runners do reach base against him) I expect the potent Rangers offense to get to Price again tonight, especially since they have had success against him already.
In addition to the pitching and hitting advantage, you can forget about home-field advantage in this game. Both clubs have shown ability to win on the road in this series and Rangers are actually 6-0 in their last 6 on the road.
Finally, I want to point out the final reason why I'm backing the Rangers tonight. Cliff Lee is 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA in six career postseason starts. Let me repeat this: Lee is 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA in 6 postseason starts. For those who think that this game is 50/50 I respectfully disagree. I think all the edges point to the Rangers and I will gladly grab + money here with Cliff Lee...
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BOL,bodio! 
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