Great writeup and your record speaks for itself, however i have to disagree with Cliff Lee on the road. granted, hes struggled in the regular season, but his postseason numbers are outstanding. Although they might have a liftime .280 against him, In his last five starts in the Bronx, Lee is 5-0 with a 1.67 ERA and two complete games, including a six-hitter in the World Series opener for the Phillies last year when he struck out 10 and gave up only an unearned run.
I think postseason Lee might be a whole nother beast, and hes proven he can shut down this potent yankees lineup. I amconfident the Rangers get to Pettitte, but im not so sure about Lee. Just my opinion and BOL tonight!
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Great writeup and your record speaks for itself, however i have to disagree with Cliff Lee on the road. granted, hes struggled in the regular season, but his postseason numbers are outstanding. Although they might have a liftime .280 against him, In his last five starts in the Bronx, Lee is 5-0 with a 1.67 ERA and two complete games, including a six-hitter in the World Series opener for the Phillies last year when he struck out 10 and gave up only an unearned run.
I think postseason Lee might be a whole nother beast, and hes proven he can shut down this potent yankees lineup. I amconfident the Rangers get to Pettitte, but im not so sure about Lee. Just my opinion and BOL tonight!
Great writeup and your record speaks for itself, however i have to disagree with Cliff Lee on the road. granted, hes struggled in the regular season, but his postseason numbers are outstanding. Although they might have a liftime .280 against him, In his last five starts in the Bronx, Lee is 5-0 with a 1.67 ERA and two complete games, including a six-hitter in the World Series opener for the Phillies last year when he struck out 10 and gave up only an unearned run.
I think postseason Lee might be a whole nother beast, and hes proven he can shut down this potent yankees lineup. I amconfident the Rangers get to Pettitte, but im not so sure about Lee. Just my opinion and BOL tonight!
Very good points and things that I definitely looked at. The thing is that, those historical stats/trends are built into this O/U #. That's the reason that this game is at 7.5 When was the last time a game at Yankee Stadium was posted at under 8 total runs?
Well, it actually did happen 3 times this season: All 3 games went OVER... I expect the same result today.
Good luck with your plays today buddy..
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Quote Originally Posted by BetsUnlimited:
Great writeup and your record speaks for itself, however i have to disagree with Cliff Lee on the road. granted, hes struggled in the regular season, but his postseason numbers are outstanding. Although they might have a liftime .280 against him, In his last five starts in the Bronx, Lee is 5-0 with a 1.67 ERA and two complete games, including a six-hitter in the World Series opener for the Phillies last year when he struck out 10 and gave up only an unearned run.
I think postseason Lee might be a whole nother beast, and hes proven he can shut down this potent yankees lineup. I amconfident the Rangers get to Pettitte, but im not so sure about Lee. Just my opinion and BOL tonight!
Very good points and things that I definitely looked at. The thing is that, those historical stats/trends are built into this O/U #. That's the reason that this game is at 7.5 When was the last time a game at Yankee Stadium was posted at under 8 total runs?
Well, it actually did happen 3 times this season: All 3 games went OVER... I expect the same result today.
Very good points and things that I definitely looked at. The thing is that, those historical stats/trends are built into this O/U #. That's the reason that this game is at 7.5 When was the last time a game at Yankee Stadium was posted at under 8 total runs?
Well, it actually did happen 3 times this season: All 3 games went OVER... I expect the same result today.
Good luck with your plays today buddy..
Didnt notice that offhand! thanks for the insight!
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Very good points and things that I definitely looked at. The thing is that, those historical stats/trends are built into this O/U #. That's the reason that this game is at 7.5 When was the last time a game at Yankee Stadium was posted at under 8 total runs?
Well, it actually did happen 3 times this season: All 3 games went OVER... I expect the same result today.
Good luck with your plays today buddy..
Didnt notice that offhand! thanks for the insight!
I'll be the first one to admit that I had no business in winning this one. The analysis was flawed...both Lee and Pettitte were masterful. If not for that 6 run outburst at the top of the 9th, the UNDER would have cashed by a long-shot.
I will absolutely take this lucky win but I know I didn't deserve it...will try to do better tomorrow
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
#14: OVER 7.5 TEX/NYY
I'll be the first one to admit that I had no business in winning this one. The analysis was flawed...both Lee and Pettitte were masterful. If not for that 6 run outburst at the top of the 9th, the UNDER would have cashed by a long-shot.
I will absolutely take this lucky win but I know I didn't deserve it...will try to do better tomorrow
I'll be the first one to admit that I had no business in winning this one. The analysis was flawed...both Lee and Pettitte were masterful. If not for that 6 run outburst at the top of the 9th, the UNDER would have cashed by a long-shot.
I will absolutely take this lucky win but I know I didn't deserve it...will try to do better tomorrow
that's gambling man. a win is a win no matter what.
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
I'll be the first one to admit that I had no business in winning this one. The analysis was flawed...both Lee and Pettitte were masterful. If not for that 6 run outburst at the top of the 9th, the UNDER would have cashed by a long-shot.
I will absolutely take this lucky win but I know I didn't deserve it...will try to do better tomorrow
that's gambling man. a win is a win no matter what.
I know that both Cain and Hamels have been pitching like studs lately, but the value in this matchup is on the over. For starters, Hamels has an FIP of 3.67 (35th best) with a solid 3.43 xFIP (11th best). Cain has an FIP of 3.65 (32nd in MLB) with an xFIP of 4.19 (53 in the majors). Any way you slice it, these guys are each predicted to give up around 3.7 runs per game. Well, we don't even need that many -- we just need each of them to give up 3 runs, and the OVER is in the bank. In addition to a concerning 4.19 xFIP, Cain also has a BABIP of .260 (5th luckiest). With a GB% of only 36%, we can see that Cain has been very lucky so far this season. Hamels' superior 3.46 K/BB ratio has kept his BABIP at .296 (right on) even though his GB% is only 41% on the year. Keep in mind that both starters have had an unusually high LOB%'s: Hamels 83% and Cain 75%. The league average is around 70% and thus we again see some hidden value in the fact that these pitchers have been somewhat lucky this year. So why wil their luck turn around today?
Well for starters both pitchers have had extra long lay-offs. Cain last pitched 10 days ago, and this 10 day layoff is going to be the longest of his career. Hamels' last start was 8 days ago. Sometimes rest is a good thing but not in this case. Both guys have had a great run and have been on fire. A longer layoff is bound to have a bit of an impact on their momentum.
More importantly than a long layoff, is the history of these pitchers against these teams. Hamels has an ERA of 4.67 with a WHIP of 1.24 against the Giants. Those games have gone 5-3 O/U. This year, Hamels faced the Giants twice, and gave up 16 hits and 9 ER's, in only 11 innings pitched. He gave up 1 HR in those appearances. Cain has an ERA of 6.23 and WHIP of 1.58 against the Phillies. The O/U was 3-2 in those starts. This year he faced them once and gave up 7 hits (1 HR), 2 ER's (5 runs total) in 6 innings pitched. Obviously, neither pitcher has a stellar history against the respective team they'll face today.
Digging a bit further, we see that Giants hitters have a BA of .268 off Hamels, with an OBP of .318 and OPS of .814. Hamels has held lefties to a .196 BA this year but right handed batters have a much higher BA against him at .247. It's no wonder that a righty-heavy lineup like the Giants have had success off him the past. (Cody Ross, the guy that already has 3 HR's in the first 2 games of this season, has a BA of .300 off Hamels with 4 HR's, in only 30 AB's. ) Cain's #'s against the current Phillies batters are even worse. They bat .311 off him with an OBP of .386 and a ridiculously high OPS of 1.075. Guys like Utley (3 HR's in 15 AB's; .467 BA), Howard (2 HR's in 10 AB's), and Rollins (1 HR, 1 double, 3 triples, in 10 AB's; .600 BA) have absolutely crushed him in the past. These guys have been warming up at the plate lately and I expect them to produce today.
Finally, the weather is expected to be very nice and sunny today with a game-time temperature of 68 degrees. On the west coast, the ball generally carries better in day games than in night games so this will be a factor for us as well.
Today's ump is Ted Barrett, and the O/U is 4-1 in his last 5 games.
All we need is for each team to score 3 runs and the OVER will cash. I feel there are enough factors here where both teams should have success achieving this goal.
I know that both Cain and Hamels have been pitching like studs lately, but the value in this matchup is on the over. For starters, Hamels has an FIP of 3.67 (35th best) with a solid 3.43 xFIP (11th best). Cain has an FIP of 3.65 (32nd in MLB) with an xFIP of 4.19 (53 in the majors). Any way you slice it, these guys are each predicted to give up around 3.7 runs per game. Well, we don't even need that many -- we just need each of them to give up 3 runs, and the OVER is in the bank. In addition to a concerning 4.19 xFIP, Cain also has a BABIP of .260 (5th luckiest). With a GB% of only 36%, we can see that Cain has been very lucky so far this season. Hamels' superior 3.46 K/BB ratio has kept his BABIP at .296 (right on) even though his GB% is only 41% on the year. Keep in mind that both starters have had an unusually high LOB%'s: Hamels 83% and Cain 75%. The league average is around 70% and thus we again see some hidden value in the fact that these pitchers have been somewhat lucky this year. So why wil their luck turn around today?
Well for starters both pitchers have had extra long lay-offs. Cain last pitched 10 days ago, and this 10 day layoff is going to be the longest of his career. Hamels' last start was 8 days ago. Sometimes rest is a good thing but not in this case. Both guys have had a great run and have been on fire. A longer layoff is bound to have a bit of an impact on their momentum.
More importantly than a long layoff, is the history of these pitchers against these teams. Hamels has an ERA of 4.67 with a WHIP of 1.24 against the Giants. Those games have gone 5-3 O/U. This year, Hamels faced the Giants twice, and gave up 16 hits and 9 ER's, in only 11 innings pitched. He gave up 1 HR in those appearances. Cain has an ERA of 6.23 and WHIP of 1.58 against the Phillies. The O/U was 3-2 in those starts. This year he faced them once and gave up 7 hits (1 HR), 2 ER's (5 runs total) in 6 innings pitched. Obviously, neither pitcher has a stellar history against the respective team they'll face today.
Digging a bit further, we see that Giants hitters have a BA of .268 off Hamels, with an OBP of .318 and OPS of .814. Hamels has held lefties to a .196 BA this year but right handed batters have a much higher BA against him at .247. It's no wonder that a righty-heavy lineup like the Giants have had success off him the past. (Cody Ross, the guy that already has 3 HR's in the first 2 games of this season, has a BA of .300 off Hamels with 4 HR's, in only 30 AB's. ) Cain's #'s against the current Phillies batters are even worse. They bat .311 off him with an OBP of .386 and a ridiculously high OPS of 1.075. Guys like Utley (3 HR's in 15 AB's; .467 BA), Howard (2 HR's in 10 AB's), and Rollins (1 HR, 1 double, 3 triples, in 10 AB's; .600 BA) have absolutely crushed him in the past. These guys have been warming up at the plate lately and I expect them to produce today.
Finally, the weather is expected to be very nice and sunny today with a game-time temperature of 68 degrees. On the west coast, the ball generally carries better in day games than in night games so this will be a factor for us as well.
Today's ump is Ted Barrett, and the O/U is 4-1 in his last 5 games.
All we need is for each team to score 3 runs and the OVER will cash. I feel there are enough factors here where both teams should have success achieving this goal.
Am I crazy for backing AJ Burnett in this one? Maybe. The fact that Burnett, who was 1-7 with a 6.98 ERA in his previous 11 games, allowed just two earned runs and six hits in his last outing of the season is an encouraging sign. Here's what he said after that game: "I definitely felt a lot better. I was just letting it go. ... I wasn't nitpicking. I was in attack mode." I expect Burnett to be in 'attack mode' again tonight and for the "BOMBERS" to get it done in the biggest game of the year.
We all know Burnett's recent history. I will throw out a few recent trends: The Yankees are 5-17 in Burnett's last 22 starts on grass, 0-6 in Burnett's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, and 0-11 in Burnett's last 11 starts against a team with a winning record. Yes, these trends are disturbing, but I'm not a 'trends' handicapper, and don't pay as much attention to trends as some. What I do know is that Burnett is 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP against the Rangers. In his last 3 starts against them, Burnett gave up 16 hits, 5 ER's, and only 1 HR in 18 innings pitched. He struck out 17 and walked 7 in those outings. These are pretty solid numbers especially if you compare them against his opponent tonight. Hunter is 0-1 with an ERA of 6.75 and WHIP of 1.8 against the Yankees. In his 2 starts against them he has given up 14 hits (1 HR) in only 9 innings pitched, leading to 7 ER's. He struck out 12 while issuing 3 walks in those starts.
Life-time the current Rangers hitters bat .209 off Burnett with an OBP of only .290, and OPS of .644. No Rangers hitter is batting over .300 off him. In comparison, Yankee hitters are batting .364 off Hunter with an OBP of .432 (sick!) and OPS of .948. They've faced Hunter in limited at-bats (33 total) but have already shown an ability to hit him well.
Looking at advanced stats we see that Burnett has a mediocre FIP of 4.83 (9th worst) and xFIP of 4.66 (17th worst). His BABIP of .319 is 18th unluckiest and 45% GB% and a 69% LOB% confirms his bad luck. As poor as Burnett's #'s are, Hunter's are even worse: 4.99 FIP (4th worst in MLB) and 4.79 xFIP (13th worst). The key here is that Hunter has a BABIP of .264, 9th luckiest in the league. His low 42% GB% and a ridiculously high 81% LOB% confirms the fact that he's been extremely lucky this year. The fact that his E-F is -1.27 (2nd most negative), foreshadows the fact that regression to the mean is to be expected, and fast. There are a ton of 'red flags' in Hunter's advanced stats and tonight I see the "Bombers" taking advantage of this very mediocre pitcher.
Finally, just want to list some trends and stats that apply to this game:
Yankees are 44-28 after a loss, 54-30 in home games this year, and 8-1 in their last 9 home playoff games. They are also 6-2 in their last 8 League Championship home games and 61-22 in their last 83 home games against a right-handed starter. After getting shut out (and we all know that doesn't happen often to this team), the Yankees are 5-3 this year, 16-5 last 3 years, and 64-26 since 1997. This is a resilient team and I didn't see any panic from them last night. Being shut-out at home is embarrassing and I see Yankees getting some revenge tonight.
Yankees are 3-1 at home when facing Texas this year and 4-2 against them in their last 6 games. Finally the Rangers are 3-7 in Hunter's last 10 road starts against a team with a winning record.
Like I said, I'm not a 'trends' handicapper -- these are for those that are.
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#16: New York Yankees -147
Am I crazy for backing AJ Burnett in this one? Maybe. The fact that Burnett, who was 1-7 with a 6.98 ERA in his previous 11 games, allowed just two earned runs and six hits in his last outing of the season is an encouraging sign. Here's what he said after that game: "I definitely felt a lot better. I was just letting it go. ... I wasn't nitpicking. I was in attack mode." I expect Burnett to be in 'attack mode' again tonight and for the "BOMBERS" to get it done in the biggest game of the year.
We all know Burnett's recent history. I will throw out a few recent trends: The Yankees are 5-17 in Burnett's last 22 starts on grass, 0-6 in Burnett's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, and 0-11 in Burnett's last 11 starts against a team with a winning record. Yes, these trends are disturbing, but I'm not a 'trends' handicapper, and don't pay as much attention to trends as some. What I do know is that Burnett is 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP against the Rangers. In his last 3 starts against them, Burnett gave up 16 hits, 5 ER's, and only 1 HR in 18 innings pitched. He struck out 17 and walked 7 in those outings. These are pretty solid numbers especially if you compare them against his opponent tonight. Hunter is 0-1 with an ERA of 6.75 and WHIP of 1.8 against the Yankees. In his 2 starts against them he has given up 14 hits (1 HR) in only 9 innings pitched, leading to 7 ER's. He struck out 12 while issuing 3 walks in those starts.
Life-time the current Rangers hitters bat .209 off Burnett with an OBP of only .290, and OPS of .644. No Rangers hitter is batting over .300 off him. In comparison, Yankee hitters are batting .364 off Hunter with an OBP of .432 (sick!) and OPS of .948. They've faced Hunter in limited at-bats (33 total) but have already shown an ability to hit him well.
Looking at advanced stats we see that Burnett has a mediocre FIP of 4.83 (9th worst) and xFIP of 4.66 (17th worst). His BABIP of .319 is 18th unluckiest and 45% GB% and a 69% LOB% confirms his bad luck. As poor as Burnett's #'s are, Hunter's are even worse: 4.99 FIP (4th worst in MLB) and 4.79 xFIP (13th worst). The key here is that Hunter has a BABIP of .264, 9th luckiest in the league. His low 42% GB% and a ridiculously high 81% LOB% confirms the fact that he's been extremely lucky this year. The fact that his E-F is -1.27 (2nd most negative), foreshadows the fact that regression to the mean is to be expected, and fast. There are a ton of 'red flags' in Hunter's advanced stats and tonight I see the "Bombers" taking advantage of this very mediocre pitcher.
Finally, just want to list some trends and stats that apply to this game:
Yankees are 44-28 after a loss, 54-30 in home games this year, and 8-1 in their last 9 home playoff games. They are also 6-2 in their last 8 League Championship home games and 61-22 in their last 83 home games against a right-handed starter. After getting shut out (and we all know that doesn't happen often to this team), the Yankees are 5-3 this year, 16-5 last 3 years, and 64-26 since 1997. This is a resilient team and I didn't see any panic from them last night. Being shut-out at home is embarrassing and I see Yankees getting some revenge tonight.
Yankees are 3-1 at home when facing Texas this year and 4-2 against them in their last 6 games. Finally the Rangers are 3-7 in Hunter's last 10 road starts against a team with a winning record.
Like I said, I'm not a 'trends' handicapper -- these are for those that are.
Well, at 0-2 day yesterday. Going to keep today's plays simple: #17: UNDER 8 TEX/NYY
Wilson has been in tremendous shape lately. He was credited for 3 ER's in the first game, but most of those were due to bullpen letting him down. I expect him to pitch well again tonight. Sabathia has struggled lately but he's still a very dominant pitcher. The fact that Rangers hitters bat .175 with OBP of only .228 against him is still on my mind. The bottom line is this: Yesterday's game had an O/U of 9.5, and that's with Burnett and Hunter on the mound. Today's game opened at 8.5 with CJ and CC on the mound, and minus Teixeira. Only a run difference? Obviously the # is now at 8 but I still see value here. Yesterday's UNDER play would have lost with 10 runs, and today's UNDER play would lose if 9 runs are scored. Something doesn't add up for me here. I see a low scoring game and will grab the UNDER here.
#18: UNDER 7.5 PHI/SF
Bumgarner has been on fire lately. In Sept/Oct starts he has K/9 ratio of 9.0 and BB/9 ratio of only 1.13, for a K/BB ratio of 8. Philly has never seen Bumgarner which is a huge advantage here as well. Blanton has been pretty solid lately as well with an ERA of 2.4 in his last 3 starts. Giants hitters bat .237 off him with an OBP a measely .255. Both teams are really cold right now at the plate, and playing a night game by the bay won't help. I expect another low scoring game in this one.
Well, at 0-2 day yesterday. Going to keep today's plays simple: #17: UNDER 8 TEX/NYY
Wilson has been in tremendous shape lately. He was credited for 3 ER's in the first game, but most of those were due to bullpen letting him down. I expect him to pitch well again tonight. Sabathia has struggled lately but he's still a very dominant pitcher. The fact that Rangers hitters bat .175 with OBP of only .228 against him is still on my mind. The bottom line is this: Yesterday's game had an O/U of 9.5, and that's with Burnett and Hunter on the mound. Today's game opened at 8.5 with CJ and CC on the mound, and minus Teixeira. Only a run difference? Obviously the # is now at 8 but I still see value here. Yesterday's UNDER play would have lost with 10 runs, and today's UNDER play would lose if 9 runs are scored. Something doesn't add up for me here. I see a low scoring game and will grab the UNDER here.
#18: UNDER 7.5 PHI/SF
Bumgarner has been on fire lately. In Sept/Oct starts he has K/9 ratio of 9.0 and BB/9 ratio of only 1.13, for a K/BB ratio of 8. Philly has never seen Bumgarner which is a huge advantage here as well. Blanton has been pretty solid lately as well with an ERA of 2.4 in his last 3 starts. Giants hitters bat .237 off him with an OBP a measely .255. Both teams are really cold right now at the plate, and playing a night game by the bay won't help. I expect another low scoring game in this one.
Not going to over think this one. Phillies are still a better team than the Giants and could they really get swept in San Fran? I don't think so. The bats came alive yesterday and they already tagged Timmy for 3 ER's in the first game of this series. Halladay is going to come out strong today and shut down the Giants. His 7.30 K/B ratio is 2nd highest to Lee's and I have to back a pitcher with the best xFIP in the league -- 2.9. Must win (literaly) game for Phillies with the best pitcher on the mound.
Not going to over think this one. Phillies are still a better team than the Giants and could they really get swept in San Fran? I don't think so. The bats came alive yesterday and they already tagged Timmy for 3 ER's in the first game of this series. Halladay is going to come out strong today and shut down the Giants. His 7.30 K/B ratio is 2nd highest to Lee's and I have to back a pitcher with the best xFIP in the league -- 2.9. Must win (literaly) game for Phillies with the best pitcher on the mound.
Not going to over think this one. Phillies are still a better team than the Giants and could they really get swept in San Fran? I don't think so. The bats came alive yesterday and they already tagged Timmy for 3 ER's in the first game of this series. Halladay is going to come out strong today and shut down the Giants. His 7.30 K/B ratio is 2nd highest to Lee's and I have to back a pitcher with the best xFIP in the league -- 2.9. Must win (literaly) game for Phillies with the best pitcher on the mound.
Timmy gave up 3 ER's on the road....that will not happen tonight. Phillies are not a "safe" play at all. Those bats are dead. Utley and Howard are a snooze fest. Utley may just have a few more Chuck Knoblach like errors at second tonight. Who is Raul Ibanez? What has he done lately? Phillies are dead for 2010. They had a great run. I'd say best of luck, but screw that, I'm investing in the home team.
Not going to over think this one. Phillies are still a better team than the Giants and could they really get swept in San Fran? I don't think so. The bats came alive yesterday and they already tagged Timmy for 3 ER's in the first game of this series. Halladay is going to come out strong today and shut down the Giants. His 7.30 K/B ratio is 2nd highest to Lee's and I have to back a pitcher with the best xFIP in the league -- 2.9. Must win (literaly) game for Phillies with the best pitcher on the mound.
Timmy gave up 3 ER's on the road....that will not happen tonight. Phillies are not a "safe" play at all. Those bats are dead. Utley and Howard are a snooze fest. Utley may just have a few more Chuck Knoblach like errors at second tonight. Who is Raul Ibanez? What has he done lately? Phillies are dead for 2010. They had a great run. I'd say best of luck, but screw that, I'm investing in the home team.
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GL with your play tonight bodio! Think you'll come out a winner.....
Hey luck has got to a part of this business some times as it goes both ways.BOL always!
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