This is going to be the LAST play of these baseball playoffs!! hehe Hopefully I didn't just jinx it
In any case, my breakdown of Lincecum and Lee is included in the write-up for Game 1, so I'm not going to regurgitate those. (I still believe that Lincecum has been the "better" pitcher over the last 2 months!) What I will provide are some facts that are making this a very strong play for me:
Neither pitcher was quality but it's easy to see that Lincecum was better.
#2: Hitting In this series Rangers are batting .211 and scoring 2.75 rpg. Giants are batting .257 and scoring 6.5 rpg. In the last 3 games, Rangers are batting .172, scoring a measly 1.3 rpg (2 shut-outs). Giants are batting .214 but are scoring 5.0 rpg. That's a 3.7 rpg difference in the last 3 games!! Right now, the Giants are a better team offensively....hands down!
#3: Bullpen Do I even need to go into this one?
#4: Public perception Why is the line so high on the Rangers? Public perception of course! Every single casual bettor is going to look at this game and say "There is NO way that Cliff Lee can lose 2 in a row". What they're forgetting to ask though is "What are the chances of Tim Lincecum pitching poorly 2 games in a row?" This line is obnoxious and it's our job to exploit it!
#5: Winning %-ages At -177 odds the bookies are telling us that the Rangers will win this game 64% of the time. So let me get this straight: Rangers are scoring 1.3 rpg, have a poor bullpen, and are starting a pitcher who has the weight of the whole state of Texas on his shoulders....but still the bookies are telling us that they'll be victorious in 13 out of 20 games played? You know what, give me a team that has 36% chance of winning this one.
Bottom line is this: #1: Better starting pitcher #2: Better "current" offense #3: Way better bullpen #4: Momentum #5: Less pressure [/u] Without looking at "superficial factors" like "MUST WIN GAME" or "Lee can't lose 2 in a row" or (my favorite) "Rangers' have their Backs to the Wall so they will win", put either Rangers or Giants next to each of the 5 real factors that I listed above. I think it's pretty clear which team should be today's play.
Good luck all!
PS: Interesting trend on the total. It opened at 5.5/6 in most places and the betting is 50/50. So why did it go up to 6.5??? My suggestion -- Stay away from the UNDER! Give the OVER a closer look and if you can't get it at 6 or lower, stay away from that one as well!!!
This is going to be the LAST play of these baseball playoffs!! hehe Hopefully I didn't just jinx it
In any case, my breakdown of Lincecum and Lee is included in the write-up for Game 1, so I'm not going to regurgitate those. (I still believe that Lincecum has been the "better" pitcher over the last 2 months!) What I will provide are some facts that are making this a very strong play for me:
Neither pitcher was quality but it's easy to see that Lincecum was better.
#2: Hitting In this series Rangers are batting .211 and scoring 2.75 rpg. Giants are batting .257 and scoring 6.5 rpg. In the last 3 games, Rangers are batting .172, scoring a measly 1.3 rpg (2 shut-outs). Giants are batting .214 but are scoring 5.0 rpg. That's a 3.7 rpg difference in the last 3 games!! Right now, the Giants are a better team offensively....hands down!
#3: Bullpen Do I even need to go into this one?
#4: Public perception Why is the line so high on the Rangers? Public perception of course! Every single casual bettor is going to look at this game and say "There is NO way that Cliff Lee can lose 2 in a row". What they're forgetting to ask though is "What are the chances of Tim Lincecum pitching poorly 2 games in a row?" This line is obnoxious and it's our job to exploit it!
#5: Winning %-ages At -177 odds the bookies are telling us that the Rangers will win this game 64% of the time. So let me get this straight: Rangers are scoring 1.3 rpg, have a poor bullpen, and are starting a pitcher who has the weight of the whole state of Texas on his shoulders....but still the bookies are telling us that they'll be victorious in 13 out of 20 games played? You know what, give me a team that has 36% chance of winning this one.
Bottom line is this: #1: Better starting pitcher #2: Better "current" offense #3: Way better bullpen #4: Momentum #5: Less pressure [/u] Without looking at "superficial factors" like "MUST WIN GAME" or "Lee can't lose 2 in a row" or (my favorite) "Rangers' have their Backs to the Wall so they will win", put either Rangers or Giants next to each of the 5 real factors that I listed above. I think it's pretty clear which team should be today's play.
Good luck all!
PS: Interesting trend on the total. It opened at 5.5/6 in most places and the betting is 50/50. So why did it go up to 6.5??? My suggestion -- Stay away from the UNDER! Give the OVER a closer look and if you can't get it at 6 or lower, stay away from that one as well!!!
yeah dude! Not to keep sucking your **** but you got the best damn write ups I have ever seen on here!
BO-DI-O!!! BO-DI-O!!!!!
haha That's some funny shit. Thanks for the props. Let's hope these 'write-ups' continue to transform into wins. Handicaping sports is my passion and I hope I can help others win some $$ investing in the Sports Marketplace.
Good luck tonight...
0
Quote Originally Posted by goatboy54:
yeah dude! Not to keep sucking your **** but you got the best damn write ups I have ever seen on here!
BO-DI-O!!! BO-DI-O!!!!!
haha That's some funny shit. Thanks for the props. Let's hope these 'write-ups' continue to transform into wins. Handicaping sports is my passion and I hope I can help others win some $$ investing in the Sports Marketplace.
In any case, my breakdown of Lincecum and Lee is included in the write-up for Game 1, so I'm not going to regurgitate those. (I still believe that Lincecum has been the "better" pitcher over the last 2 months!) What I will provide are some facts that are making this a very strong play for me:
Neither pitcher was quality but it's easy to see that Lincecum was better.
#4: Public perception Why is the line so high on the Rangers? Public perception of course! Every single casual bettor is going to look at this game and say "There is NO way that Cliff Lee can lose 2 in a row". What they're forgetting to ask though is "What are the chances of Tim Lincecum pitching poorly 2 games in a row?" This line is obnoxious and it's our job to exploit it!
#1: Better starting pitcher
I agree with you 160 lincecum can not be seen against anyone
In any case, my breakdown of Lincecum and Lee is included in the write-up for Game 1, so I'm not going to regurgitate those. (I still believe that Lincecum has been the "better" pitcher over the last 2 months!) What I will provide are some facts that are making this a very strong play for me:
Neither pitcher was quality but it's easy to see that Lincecum was better.
#4: Public perception Why is the line so high on the Rangers? Public perception of course! Every single casual bettor is going to look at this game and say "There is NO way that Cliff Lee can lose 2 in a row". What they're forgetting to ask though is "What are the chances of Tim Lincecum pitching poorly 2 games in a row?" This line is obnoxious and it's our job to exploit it!
#1: Better starting pitcher
I agree with you 160 lincecum can not be seen against anyone
Hamilton's swinging at anything. Give the man his glass pipe and a bar stool.
I almost think he had it before the game, or at least the night before (each game). What a horrible series for a guy that hit so well, beforehand. Man, I have to think the guy who said Ron Washington and Josh Hamilton would be calling their old coke dealers may have a valid point after all. Yikes.
0
Quote Originally Posted by searchwarrant:
Hamilton's swinging at anything. Give the man his glass pipe and a bar stool.
I almost think he had it before the game, or at least the night before (each game). What a horrible series for a guy that hit so well, beforehand. Man, I have to think the guy who said Ron Washington and Josh Hamilton would be calling their old coke dealers may have a valid point after all. Yikes.
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Lets finish this tonight! 
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Your are the Champion in da plaoffs 
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