Bodio, what do you think about the over here. Seems like the bats my be getting warm here
gl and good run brother
Thanks brutha! I had a strong lean on the UNDER in this one. I guess thank god it was a lean and not a play or else I would have been pretty upset with the way the game ended :)
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Quote Originally Posted by NEPatsFan:
Bodio, what do you think about the over here. Seems like the bats my be getting warm here
gl and good run brother
Thanks brutha! I had a strong lean on the UNDER in this one. I guess thank god it was a lean and not a play or else I would have been pretty upset with the way the game ended :)
After reading your question, I realized that "NO RUNS" in the 1st was a fairly solid bet in this one and threw 1 unit on it. It cashed so thank you for bringing it up!
Sorry if you played that UNDER 7. If you watched the game, you'd know that it was the right side but obviously walking in 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th didn't help the cause....
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Quote Originally Posted by shark_apreza:
appreciate it tx bol
Hey Shark,
After reading your question, I realized that "NO RUNS" in the 1st was a fairly solid bet in this one and threw 1 unit on it. It cashed so thank you for bringing it up!
Sorry if you played that UNDER 7. If you watched the game, you'd know that it was the right side but obviously walking in 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th didn't help the cause....
Both
Sanchez and Lewis have one distinct advantage in this one: neither
lineup has seen them much. I really think this will be a big factor
today. The Rangers are very cold at the plate and San Fran only had 8
hits last game. Sanchez has an 2.87 ERA and a WHIP of 1.2 on the road
while Lewis has an ERA of 3.15 and WHIP of 1.2 at home. I expect Lewis
to go at least 7 in this one thus making Rangers bullpen a non-issue
(Feliz could be used to close this out in the 8th). Lewis is 11-21 O/U
on the season and Sanches is 0-2 O/U in his last few starts. I believe
majority of the public will be on the OVER here, but I see both
pitchers having very good games and keeping this one under 9 runs.
#27: Parlay: +143 (Rangers -160 / Chargers ML -200)
This
parlay is strictly due to the fact that I do NOT want to lay -160 juice
on the Rangers even though I think they're the right side. Chargers
-3.5 is one of my plays tomorrow (write-up provided in the NFL section
by tomorrow morning) and I truly do not see them losing this game
against the Titans.
In any case, let's analyze the starting
pitchers. Sanchez has a FIP of 4.0 (48th in MLB) and xFIP of 4.11
(58thin MLB). HIs BABIP of .262 suggests that he's been very lucky so
far and is due for a negative regression to the mean (we saw some of
that in his last outing). Lewis has a FIP of 3.55 (27th best) and xFIP
of 3.93 (37th best). HIs .292 BABIP suggests that those #'s are
accurate. He threw a gem in his last outing against the Yankees and I
see him with a strong performance today. Even though Sanchez is due for
a regression, the fact that he's never faced this Rangers lineup will
be in his favor. He'll give up a few runs but not many.
Rangers
have a better pitcher on the mound, are playing at home, and get to use
a DH in this one. They have an advantage and should win a low scoring
game here.
Both
Sanchez and Lewis have one distinct advantage in this one: neither
lineup has seen them much. I really think this will be a big factor
today. The Rangers are very cold at the plate and San Fran only had 8
hits last game. Sanchez has an 2.87 ERA and a WHIP of 1.2 on the road
while Lewis has an ERA of 3.15 and WHIP of 1.2 at home. I expect Lewis
to go at least 7 in this one thus making Rangers bullpen a non-issue
(Feliz could be used to close this out in the 8th). Lewis is 11-21 O/U
on the season and Sanches is 0-2 O/U in his last few starts. I believe
majority of the public will be on the OVER here, but I see both
pitchers having very good games and keeping this one under 9 runs.
#27: Parlay: +143 (Rangers -160 / Chargers ML -200)
This
parlay is strictly due to the fact that I do NOT want to lay -160 juice
on the Rangers even though I think they're the right side. Chargers
-3.5 is one of my plays tomorrow (write-up provided in the NFL section
by tomorrow morning) and I truly do not see them losing this game
against the Titans.
In any case, let's analyze the starting
pitchers. Sanchez has a FIP of 4.0 (48th in MLB) and xFIP of 4.11
(58thin MLB). HIs BABIP of .262 suggests that he's been very lucky so
far and is due for a negative regression to the mean (we saw some of
that in his last outing). Lewis has a FIP of 3.55 (27th best) and xFIP
of 3.93 (37th best). HIs .292 BABIP suggests that those #'s are
accurate. He threw a gem in his last outing against the Yankees and I
see him with a strong performance today. Even though Sanchez is due for
a regression, the fact that he's never faced this Rangers lineup will
be in his favor. He'll give up a few runs but not many.
Rangers
have a better pitcher on the mound, are playing at home, and get to use
a DH in this one. They have an advantage and should win a low scoring
game here.
#28: San Francisco Giants +130 Bottom
line here is that Bumgarner is a better pitcher than Hunter! This is
the one and only reason why I'm taking the Giants in this one.
Hunter
has an FIP of 4.99 and xFIP of 4.70. These are some of the worst #'s
in the league. His BABIP is .264 with a 41% GB%, suggesting that he's
been extremely lucky and regression to the mean is expected. We've seen
this regression start taking place in the playoffs where his ERA is
6.33 through 2 games.
Bumgarner has an FIP of 3.73 and xFIP
3.94. These numbers are way better than Hunter's. In addition his
BABIP is .317 with a 46% GB%. This indicates that he's been very
unlucky and I expect these numbers to regress to the positive. He has a
3.6 ERA in the playoffs and I expect that ERA to improve after
tomorrow's outing.
Not going to over-think this one and take road doggie with a better pitcher on the mound. Go Giants!
#28: San Francisco Giants +130 Bottom
line here is that Bumgarner is a better pitcher than Hunter! This is
the one and only reason why I'm taking the Giants in this one.
Hunter
has an FIP of 4.99 and xFIP of 4.70. These are some of the worst #'s
in the league. His BABIP is .264 with a 41% GB%, suggesting that he's
been extremely lucky and regression to the mean is expected. We've seen
this regression start taking place in the playoffs where his ERA is
6.33 through 2 games.
Bumgarner has an FIP of 3.73 and xFIP
3.94. These numbers are way better than Hunter's. In addition his
BABIP is .317 with a 46% GB%. This indicates that he's been very
unlucky and I expect these numbers to regress to the positive. He has a
3.6 ERA in the playoffs and I expect that ERA to improve after
tomorrow's outing.
Not going to over-think this one and take road doggie with a better pitcher on the mound. Go Giants!
Well, the run continues. I think it's either 5 or 6 in a row now. In any case, thanks to the Chargers win, cashed my parlay with Rangers ML from last night.
1 win away from cashing the Giants series play.
Back tomorrow with thoughts on game 5.
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Well, the run continues. I think it's either 5 or 6 in a row now. In any case, thanks to the Chargers win, cashed my parlay with Rangers ML from last night.
UNDER 6 eh? I know the last 2 games have been low scoring but 6 is such a low #. I played UNDER 5.5 in the first game of this series and it wasn't even close. Both teams had success against Lee and Lincecum respectively, so why should it change in this one?
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Quote Originally Posted by zipnjaz:
giants/rangers Under 6 par with Flyers
UNDER 6 eh? I know the last 2 games have been low scoring but 6 is such a low #. I played UNDER 5.5 in the first game of this series and it wasn't even close. Both teams had success against Lee and Lincecum respectively, so why should it change in this one?
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giants +130 
and on your parlay.
Established in 1995,
)
Hope they will win 21 -1 for 21-1 for US 
this time the book owes me 
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