Cliff Lee vs David Price in this one and I think the value is on the more experienced Lee. Both pitchers are going into the playoffs in tremendous form, pitching very well down the stretch. The difference lies in advanced stats. Lee has an FIP of 2.58 (2nd best in the majors) with an xFIP of 3.23 (6th best). His K/BB ratio of 10.28 is the highest in the league. Price has an FIP of 3.42 (22nd best) and xFIP of 3.99 (41st lowest in the league). His K/BB ratio is 2.38. Don't get me wrong, Price is an awesome pitcher, but Lee is a tad better. In his career, Lee's ERA against the Rays is 2.87 with a WHIP of 1.017. He did get lit up in his last start against them, giving up 9 hits and 6 ER's in 7.7 innings pitched, and this will provide extra effort for him. Price has an ERA of 7.45 and WHIP of 1.65 life-time against the Rangers. He is 0-2 in those 4 starts against them.
The current Rangers batters are hitting .286 off Lee with an OBP of .397! Their OPS is .861. On the other hand, the Rays batters are life-time .236 hitters off Lee with an OBP of only .272. Their OPS is .618 off him. This discrepancy added with the fact that the Rays are batting .149 with OBP of .217 and only 2.0 rpg in their last 7, provides additional value on backing Lee in this one.
Both bullpens are solid: Rangers 3.39 ERA / 1.2 WHIP on the road and Rays 3.21 ERA / 1.1 WHIP at home.
As a road underdog in +100 to +125 range, the Rangers are 17-11 this season. I expect the more experienced pitcher in Lee to take advantage of a cold Rays squad and dominate this game.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
#1: Texas Rangers +121
Cliff Lee vs David Price in this one and I think the value is on the more experienced Lee. Both pitchers are going into the playoffs in tremendous form, pitching very well down the stretch. The difference lies in advanced stats. Lee has an FIP of 2.58 (2nd best in the majors) with an xFIP of 3.23 (6th best). His K/BB ratio of 10.28 is the highest in the league. Price has an FIP of 3.42 (22nd best) and xFIP of 3.99 (41st lowest in the league). His K/BB ratio is 2.38. Don't get me wrong, Price is an awesome pitcher, but Lee is a tad better. In his career, Lee's ERA against the Rays is 2.87 with a WHIP of 1.017. He did get lit up in his last start against them, giving up 9 hits and 6 ER's in 7.7 innings pitched, and this will provide extra effort for him. Price has an ERA of 7.45 and WHIP of 1.65 life-time against the Rangers. He is 0-2 in those 4 starts against them.
The current Rangers batters are hitting .286 off Lee with an OBP of .397! Their OPS is .861. On the other hand, the Rays batters are life-time .236 hitters off Lee with an OBP of only .272. Their OPS is .618 off him. This discrepancy added with the fact that the Rays are batting .149 with OBP of .217 and only 2.0 rpg in their last 7, provides additional value on backing Lee in this one.
Both bullpens are solid: Rangers 3.39 ERA / 1.2 WHIP on the road and Rays 3.21 ERA / 1.1 WHIP at home.
As a road underdog in +100 to +125 range, the Rangers are 17-11 this season. I expect the more experienced pitcher in Lee to take advantage of a cold Rays squad and dominate this game.
Two hot teams are facing off in game 1 here. Cincy is batting .301 while scoring 5.3 rpg in their last 7, while Phillies are hitting .273 and scoring 6.3 rpg in the same time span. Both teams have won 4 of their last 6 games and both starting pitchers, Halladay and Volquez, have been on fire in their last few starts. The big difference here is that Halladay has a home ERA of 2.32 with a WHIP of 1.0 while Volquez has really struggled on the road, with an ERA of 6.08 and WHIP of 1.86. Looking at advanced stats, Halladay has an FIP of 3.01 (7th best) and xFIP of 2.92 (the BEST in the league). His 7.30 K/BB ratio dwarfs Volquez' 1.91 K/BB. In addition, rightys are batting .231 off Halladay, and Cincy is primarily a right-hitting lineup, except Votto and Bruce, against whom I expect Halladay to be very careful. Volquez has a FIP of 4.0 (57th best) and xFIP of 3.87 (33rd in the league). He's a pretty good pitcher but tends to have control issues at times, evidenced by his 5.03 BB/9 ratio. The opponents are batting .292 with an OPS of .874 against him on the road. I expect the hot Phillies line-up to get to him for at least 3 runs in this one.
Looking at bullpens: Cincy road ERA 4.20 / 1.44 WHIP and Philly home ERA 3.78 / 1.27 WHIP. Slight adv: Phillies.
This year when Cincy has been a road underdog in the +175 to +200 range, they've gone 1-3 (25%). Phillies on the other hand, have gone 12-1 (92%)this year, being a home favorite in the -200 to -225 range. In addiition, they are 32-9(78%)in the second half of the season facing a team with a winning record. Cincy in the same scenario is only 12-21 (36%) in the 2nd half (they've obviously faced a weaker competition and beat the teams they were supposed to, in order to get to the playoffs). I know laying -200 juice is not ideal but -200 suggests that Phillies should win this matchup roughly(67%)of the time. Based on the trends above, we could make a case that Philadelphia is under-valued in this one!
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#2: Philadelphia Phillies -200
Two hot teams are facing off in game 1 here. Cincy is batting .301 while scoring 5.3 rpg in their last 7, while Phillies are hitting .273 and scoring 6.3 rpg in the same time span. Both teams have won 4 of their last 6 games and both starting pitchers, Halladay and Volquez, have been on fire in their last few starts. The big difference here is that Halladay has a home ERA of 2.32 with a WHIP of 1.0 while Volquez has really struggled on the road, with an ERA of 6.08 and WHIP of 1.86. Looking at advanced stats, Halladay has an FIP of 3.01 (7th best) and xFIP of 2.92 (the BEST in the league). His 7.30 K/BB ratio dwarfs Volquez' 1.91 K/BB. In addition, rightys are batting .231 off Halladay, and Cincy is primarily a right-hitting lineup, except Votto and Bruce, against whom I expect Halladay to be very careful. Volquez has a FIP of 4.0 (57th best) and xFIP of 3.87 (33rd in the league). He's a pretty good pitcher but tends to have control issues at times, evidenced by his 5.03 BB/9 ratio. The opponents are batting .292 with an OPS of .874 against him on the road. I expect the hot Phillies line-up to get to him for at least 3 runs in this one.
Looking at bullpens: Cincy road ERA 4.20 / 1.44 WHIP and Philly home ERA 3.78 / 1.27 WHIP. Slight adv: Phillies.
This year when Cincy has been a road underdog in the +175 to +200 range, they've gone 1-3 (25%). Phillies on the other hand, have gone 12-1 (92%)this year, being a home favorite in the -200 to -225 range. In addiition, they are 32-9(78%)in the second half of the season facing a team with a winning record. Cincy in the same scenario is only 12-21 (36%) in the 2nd half (they've obviously faced a weaker competition and beat the teams they were supposed to, in order to get to the playoffs). I know laying -200 juice is not ideal but -200 suggests that Phillies should win this matchup roughly(67%)of the time. Based on the trends above, we could make a case that Philadelphia is under-valued in this one!
Advanced stats slightly favor Liriano in this one, 2.66 FIP (3rd best) & 3.06 xFIP (2nd best) with an ulucky BABIP of .340 (2nd highest) and E-F of +.96 (suggesting that his ERA of 3.62 should be way lower). Sabathia has an FIP of 3.54 (25th best) and xFIP of 3.78 (24th best). He has a .285 BABIP but his GB% of over 50% offsets that. So why am I even looking at this game? Well advanced stats are NOT everything and there are a couple of angles that tells me that Yankees are a strong play to win game 1.
#1: Current Twinkies batters hit .228 off Sabathia with OBP of only .272 and OPS of .628. In 180 at-bats, they have 41 hits, 5 HR's, and only 9 BB's to 48K's (5.33 K/BB ratio). Keep in mind that majority of these hitters have seen Sabathia plenty of times and still can't hit him: Mauer 5 for 23 with 9 K's (.217 BA); Thome 4 for 27 with 14 K's (.148 BA); Cuddyer 11 for 52 with 11 K's (.212 BA); Young 3 for 15 with 3 K's (.200 BA); Punto 6 for 36 with 6 K's (.167 BA).
On the other hand the current Yankees hitters are .274 off Liriano, with OBP of .342 and OPS of .831. They have a few hitters that have struggled off him: Granderson 4 for 22 with 12K's (.182 BA); Teixeira 3 for 16 with 8 K's (.188 BA) and A-Rod 1 for 9 with 4 K's (.111 BA). I'd argue that the sample size for A-Rod is very small so should be taken with a grain of salt here. Besides Tex and Grand, there are a number of hitters that have been very successful against Liriano: Swisher BA .313; Thames BA .357; Jeter BA .385; Cano BA .333 and Posada BA .500 (small sample size...3 for 6).
As good as Twinkies are against lefties in general (.268 BA / OBP .336), Yankees are even better. They lead the league in OBP against lefties with .357 (.268 BA) and are 2nd in runs scored off them with 264. The OBP of .357 is a key #, since I expect this Yankee lineup to be very patient with Liriano, especially if he's a tad wild.
#2: Speaking of Liriano being a tad wild, he is sporting an ERA of 8.10 and WHIP of 1.5 in his last 3 starts. In his last start he gave up 5 ER's, on 6 hits, 3 HR's, in only 5.3 innings pitched. Not a big deal, except for the fact that in his start prior to that one, he gave up 2 ER's on 4 hits in only 3 innings pitched (1 HR). Alright it happens, right? Well, in a start prior to that he gave up 7 hits for 5 ER's in 5 innings (1 more HR). Hmmm.....The interesting part here is that on the season, Liriano has only given up 9 HR's. Well, 5 of these 9 came in his last 3 outings, and 3 of them came in his very last start. Not sure if he's getting tired again (he was rested earlier in the 2nd half of the season due to his arm going dead) or if there is something with his delivery/control, but I'm betting that the Yankee hitters are watching game-tape of these games very closely.
#3: The final reason why Yankees are a great wager in game 1 is that I don't think Liriano is mentally tough to handle the pressures of this game. Both pitchers know how important this game is. Besides CC, Yankees' rotation is very mediocre. Taking the 1st game, and thus at least splitting the two in Minnesota is critical. Liriano knows this as well. Win game 1, and Twinkies have a great shot at beating NY in this one. Lose this game and this task becomes really really tough. I watched Liriano pitch this season, and he tends to tense up and sweat profusely when facing a difficult situation. His stuff is very good, so he is usually able to get out of those jams but playoffs is a different animal. And opening the series against one of the best hitting clubs in the leagus is not going to be easy. I mentioned earlier that Yankees have the highest OBP against lefty-pitchers. That's because they're patient and draw walks. I expect Liriano to be a lot more rattled than Sabathia in this one, and it's the major reason while I'm fading him at this fairly affordable price on CC.
Keep in mind that Twinkies are batting .211 with an OBP of .275 and only 3.4 rpg in their last 7 games. I don't think their hitters will be able to turn it on just like that, against a 21 game winner like CC.
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#3: New York Yankees -138
Advanced stats slightly favor Liriano in this one, 2.66 FIP (3rd best) & 3.06 xFIP (2nd best) with an ulucky BABIP of .340 (2nd highest) and E-F of +.96 (suggesting that his ERA of 3.62 should be way lower). Sabathia has an FIP of 3.54 (25th best) and xFIP of 3.78 (24th best). He has a .285 BABIP but his GB% of over 50% offsets that. So why am I even looking at this game? Well advanced stats are NOT everything and there are a couple of angles that tells me that Yankees are a strong play to win game 1.
#1: Current Twinkies batters hit .228 off Sabathia with OBP of only .272 and OPS of .628. In 180 at-bats, they have 41 hits, 5 HR's, and only 9 BB's to 48K's (5.33 K/BB ratio). Keep in mind that majority of these hitters have seen Sabathia plenty of times and still can't hit him: Mauer 5 for 23 with 9 K's (.217 BA); Thome 4 for 27 with 14 K's (.148 BA); Cuddyer 11 for 52 with 11 K's (.212 BA); Young 3 for 15 with 3 K's (.200 BA); Punto 6 for 36 with 6 K's (.167 BA).
On the other hand the current Yankees hitters are .274 off Liriano, with OBP of .342 and OPS of .831. They have a few hitters that have struggled off him: Granderson 4 for 22 with 12K's (.182 BA); Teixeira 3 for 16 with 8 K's (.188 BA) and A-Rod 1 for 9 with 4 K's (.111 BA). I'd argue that the sample size for A-Rod is very small so should be taken with a grain of salt here. Besides Tex and Grand, there are a number of hitters that have been very successful against Liriano: Swisher BA .313; Thames BA .357; Jeter BA .385; Cano BA .333 and Posada BA .500 (small sample size...3 for 6).
As good as Twinkies are against lefties in general (.268 BA / OBP .336), Yankees are even better. They lead the league in OBP against lefties with .357 (.268 BA) and are 2nd in runs scored off them with 264. The OBP of .357 is a key #, since I expect this Yankee lineup to be very patient with Liriano, especially if he's a tad wild.
#2: Speaking of Liriano being a tad wild, he is sporting an ERA of 8.10 and WHIP of 1.5 in his last 3 starts. In his last start he gave up 5 ER's, on 6 hits, 3 HR's, in only 5.3 innings pitched. Not a big deal, except for the fact that in his start prior to that one, he gave up 2 ER's on 4 hits in only 3 innings pitched (1 HR). Alright it happens, right? Well, in a start prior to that he gave up 7 hits for 5 ER's in 5 innings (1 more HR). Hmmm.....The interesting part here is that on the season, Liriano has only given up 9 HR's. Well, 5 of these 9 came in his last 3 outings, and 3 of them came in his very last start. Not sure if he's getting tired again (he was rested earlier in the 2nd half of the season due to his arm going dead) or if there is something with his delivery/control, but I'm betting that the Yankee hitters are watching game-tape of these games very closely.
#3: The final reason why Yankees are a great wager in game 1 is that I don't think Liriano is mentally tough to handle the pressures of this game. Both pitchers know how important this game is. Besides CC, Yankees' rotation is very mediocre. Taking the 1st game, and thus at least splitting the two in Minnesota is critical. Liriano knows this as well. Win game 1, and Twinkies have a great shot at beating NY in this one. Lose this game and this task becomes really really tough. I watched Liriano pitch this season, and he tends to tense up and sweat profusely when facing a difficult situation. His stuff is very good, so he is usually able to get out of those jams but playoffs is a different animal. And opening the series against one of the best hitting clubs in the leagus is not going to be easy. I mentioned earlier that Yankees have the highest OBP against lefty-pitchers. That's because they're patient and draw walks. I expect Liriano to be a lot more rattled than Sabathia in this one, and it's the major reason while I'm fading him at this fairly affordable price on CC.
Keep in mind that Twinkies are batting .211 with an OBP of .275 and only 3.4 rpg in their last 7 games. I don't think their hitters will be able to turn it on just like that, against a 21 game winner like CC.
Would we agree that Liriano is a very good pitcher? I think so. Which makes it more likely that he won't have a fourth bad outing in a row (keep in mind that one game he left early because of a stomach ailment and the other two outings were virtually meaningless).
You're putting way too much emphasis into how the Twins played at the end of the season. They may be batting .211 in their last 7 games but go back and look at the box scores and look at how many regulars rested.
Liriano is a wild card heading into this he could implode or rise to the occasion. I think going through Tommy John surgery and three years of struggling have made him tough enough to handle this moment.
But maybe I'm wrong.
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Would we agree that Liriano is a very good pitcher? I think so. Which makes it more likely that he won't have a fourth bad outing in a row (keep in mind that one game he left early because of a stomach ailment and the other two outings were virtually meaningless).
You're putting way too much emphasis into how the Twins played at the end of the season. They may be batting .211 in their last 7 games but go back and look at the box scores and look at how many regulars rested.
Liriano is a wild card heading into this he could implode or rise to the occasion. I think going through Tommy John surgery and three years of struggling have made him tough enough to handle this moment.
Would we agree that Liriano is a very good pitcher? I think so. Which makes it more likely that he won't have a fourth bad outing in a row (keep in mind that one game he left early because of a stomach ailment and the other two outings were virtually meaningless).
You're putting way too much emphasis into how the Twins played at the end of the season. They may be batting .211 in their last 7 games but go back and look at the box scores and look at how many regulars rested.
Liriano is a wild card heading into this he could implode or rise to the occasion. I think going through Tommy John surgery and three years of struggling have made him tough enough to handle this moment.
But maybe I'm wrong.
I only went back the last series, but it appears MOST starters including Mauer played at least 3 of those 4
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Quote Originally Posted by becker4prez:
Would we agree that Liriano is a very good pitcher? I think so. Which makes it more likely that he won't have a fourth bad outing in a row (keep in mind that one game he left early because of a stomach ailment and the other two outings were virtually meaningless).
You're putting way too much emphasis into how the Twins played at the end of the season. They may be batting .211 in their last 7 games but go back and look at the box scores and look at how many regulars rested.
Liriano is a wild card heading into this he could implode or rise to the occasion. I think going through Tommy John surgery and three years of struggling have made him tough enough to handle this moment.
But maybe I'm wrong.
I only went back the last series, but it appears MOST starters including Mauer played at least 3 of those 4
Would we agree that Liriano is a very good pitcher? I think so. Which makes it more likely that he won't have a fourth bad outing in a row (keep in mind that one game he left early because of a stomach ailment and the other two outings were virtually meaningless).
You're putting way too much emphasis into how the Twins played at the end of the season. They may be batting .211 in their last 7 games but go back and look at the box scores and look at how many regulars rested.
Liriano is a wild card heading into this he could implode or rise to the occasion. I think going through Tommy John surgery and three years of struggling have made him tough enough to handle this moment.
But maybe I'm wrong.
Liriano is an excellent pitcher, not just good. But so is CC. I like CC's playoff experience and composure here vs a pitcher in Liriano who I feel will struggle in a big playoff game. More likely that he won't have a 4th bad outing? Well I don't handicap like that. I like to look at the facts and make my decision based on that. Meaningless or not, I don't think Liriano was trying to make bad pitches on purpose in his last 3 starts. The fact that he threw 5 out of his 9 HR's in those last 3 starts is something that you have to definitely consider, especially when he's facing a lineup with a word "Bombers" in their nickname :)
I did look at the boxscores. Sure some of the regulars were rested here and there, but for the most part Minny's starting hitters were in there. Mauer and company have really been struggling at the plate. I expect that to continue against a dominant pitcher like Sabathia.
Thanks for the response. I re-evaluated my play one more time after thinking about it, and am still very confident in the Yankees in game 1.
Good luck to you, unless you're playing Minny of course
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Quote Originally Posted by becker4prez:
Would we agree that Liriano is a very good pitcher? I think so. Which makes it more likely that he won't have a fourth bad outing in a row (keep in mind that one game he left early because of a stomach ailment and the other two outings were virtually meaningless).
You're putting way too much emphasis into how the Twins played at the end of the season. They may be batting .211 in their last 7 games but go back and look at the box scores and look at how many regulars rested.
Liriano is a wild card heading into this he could implode or rise to the occasion. I think going through Tommy John surgery and three years of struggling have made him tough enough to handle this moment.
But maybe I'm wrong.
Liriano is an excellent pitcher, not just good. But so is CC. I like CC's playoff experience and composure here vs a pitcher in Liriano who I feel will struggle in a big playoff game. More likely that he won't have a 4th bad outing? Well I don't handicap like that. I like to look at the facts and make my decision based on that. Meaningless or not, I don't think Liriano was trying to make bad pitches on purpose in his last 3 starts. The fact that he threw 5 out of his 9 HR's in those last 3 starts is something that you have to definitely consider, especially when he's facing a lineup with a word "Bombers" in their nickname :)
I did look at the boxscores. Sure some of the regulars were rested here and there, but for the most part Minny's starting hitters were in there. Mauer and company have really been struggling at the plate. I expect that to continue against a dominant pitcher like Sabathia.
Thanks for the response. I re-evaluated my play one more time after thinking about it, and am still very confident in the Yankees in game 1.
Good luck to you, unless you're playing Minny of course
i honestly dont think philly can lose, so i rather play the run line -1.5. i think the run line covers for -200+ favorites a large percentage of the time
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im with you on all three games, bol
i honestly dont think philly can lose, so i rather play the run line -1.5. i think the run line covers for -200+ favorites a large percentage of the time
Yesterday I backed the Rangers with Cliff Lee, but today we're going to jump on the Rays. I know Shields has struggled lately but he'll rebound today. Here's what he had to say about his poor performances recently: "The best attribute for a baseball player is amnesia," Shields said. "I feel really good right now. I feel confident in my stuff, I feel confident in what I'm doing out there." Love to hear this from a pitcher that has been struggling. Shields had a very strong performance in 2008 playoffs for the Rays, with a 2.88 ERA in 4 post-season starts. That's a good sample size and shows us that he knows how to pitch in high-pressure situations. As bad as Shields have been lately, Wilson hasn't been that great either going 1-3 with a 5.85 ERA since September. We have to remember that this is the most innings that he's logged in 1 season and is 130 more than he threw in 2009. Fatigue has to be a factor...
Looking at advanced stats, Wilson has an FIP of 3.56 (28th best) and xFIP of 4.20 (55th in MLB). Compare that with Shields' xFIP of 3.72 (19th highest). Shields also sports the highest BABIP in the majors at .354. He's been very unlucky, while Wilson's .271 BABIP tells us that he's been very fortunate this year. In addition, Shields' E-F of .94 is the 12th highest to the positive, showing us that regression to improved ERA is to be expected. Shields is a strong candidate for improved performances, especially with a K/BB ratio of 3.67 (one of the best in the league). (Wilson's K/BB ratio is only 1.83)
Shields is 3-2 (team 4-2) against Texas with an ERA of 4.07 but a sick WHIP of 1.09. In his last outing against them, he held them to 4 hits and 1 ER in 7 innings with 1 BB to 6 K's. This year he has held the Rangers to 2.57 ERA with 4 ER's in 14 innings. He had 10K's to only 2 BB's against them. Some of the bigger bats in the Rangers lineup have struggled against Shields: Hamilton 1 for 10 (.100 BA); Kinsler 3 for 13 (.231 BA); Cantu 3 for 13 (.231 BA). I expect a motivated Shields to dominate these hitters today and pitch very carefully to Guerrero who is 13 for 33 against him for .394 BA.
Wilson, in his only start against the Rays, gave up 6 hits, 3 ER (5 runs total) in only 5 innings. He had 4 BB's to only 5 K's in that game. The Rays hitters had some decent at-bats yesterday against Cliff Lee, with a good number of balls being hit hard but straight to the outfielders. They will have much more success against Wilson today.
Finally one last aspect that can't be overlooked here are the bullpens. In their last 10 games prior to the post-season, Texas' bullpen owns a 5.13 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and .264 BAA. Rays in the same timespan, have a 0.00 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and .167 BAA . Wilson only lasted 5 innings last time out against the Rays and we're not sure how he'll respond after already logging the most innings ever in his career. I expect it to be a short outing for him as the Rangers' under-performing pen should help our 'cause' later in the game.
Rangers are still 6-17 i their last 23 in Tampa Bay. And even though I faded this streak yesterday, today is another story. I feel very confident that it will get extended.
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MLB 2010 Playoffs Record:3 - 0 Units won: + 3.21
#4: Tampa Bay Rays -123
Yesterday I backed the Rangers with Cliff Lee, but today we're going to jump on the Rays. I know Shields has struggled lately but he'll rebound today. Here's what he had to say about his poor performances recently: "The best attribute for a baseball player is amnesia," Shields said. "I feel really good right now. I feel confident in my stuff, I feel confident in what I'm doing out there." Love to hear this from a pitcher that has been struggling. Shields had a very strong performance in 2008 playoffs for the Rays, with a 2.88 ERA in 4 post-season starts. That's a good sample size and shows us that he knows how to pitch in high-pressure situations. As bad as Shields have been lately, Wilson hasn't been that great either going 1-3 with a 5.85 ERA since September. We have to remember that this is the most innings that he's logged in 1 season and is 130 more than he threw in 2009. Fatigue has to be a factor...
Looking at advanced stats, Wilson has an FIP of 3.56 (28th best) and xFIP of 4.20 (55th in MLB). Compare that with Shields' xFIP of 3.72 (19th highest). Shields also sports the highest BABIP in the majors at .354. He's been very unlucky, while Wilson's .271 BABIP tells us that he's been very fortunate this year. In addition, Shields' E-F of .94 is the 12th highest to the positive, showing us that regression to improved ERA is to be expected. Shields is a strong candidate for improved performances, especially with a K/BB ratio of 3.67 (one of the best in the league). (Wilson's K/BB ratio is only 1.83)
Shields is 3-2 (team 4-2) against Texas with an ERA of 4.07 but a sick WHIP of 1.09. In his last outing against them, he held them to 4 hits and 1 ER in 7 innings with 1 BB to 6 K's. This year he has held the Rangers to 2.57 ERA with 4 ER's in 14 innings. He had 10K's to only 2 BB's against them. Some of the bigger bats in the Rangers lineup have struggled against Shields: Hamilton 1 for 10 (.100 BA); Kinsler 3 for 13 (.231 BA); Cantu 3 for 13 (.231 BA). I expect a motivated Shields to dominate these hitters today and pitch very carefully to Guerrero who is 13 for 33 against him for .394 BA.
Wilson, in his only start against the Rays, gave up 6 hits, 3 ER (5 runs total) in only 5 innings. He had 4 BB's to only 5 K's in that game. The Rays hitters had some decent at-bats yesterday against Cliff Lee, with a good number of balls being hit hard but straight to the outfielders. They will have much more success against Wilson today.
Finally one last aspect that can't be overlooked here are the bullpens. In their last 10 games prior to the post-season, Texas' bullpen owns a 5.13 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and .264 BAA. Rays in the same timespan, have a 0.00 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and .167 BAA . Wilson only lasted 5 innings last time out against the Rays and we're not sure how he'll respond after already logging the most innings ever in his career. I expect it to be a short outing for him as the Rangers' under-performing pen should help our 'cause' later in the game.
Rangers are still 6-17 i their last 23 in Tampa Bay. And even though I faded this streak yesterday, today is another story. I feel very confident that it will get extended.
Line just shot up to -130 Rays @ Pinnacle, one of the sharpest books....
The betting is fairly close to 50/50 so this tells me some 'sharp' $$ came in on the Rays. Line opened at -115 at PInnacle last night and now at -130....big line move...
I like Rays even more now...
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Line just shot up to -130 Rays @ Pinnacle, one of the sharpest books....
The betting is fairly close to 50/50 so this tells me some 'sharp' $$ came in on the Rays. Line opened at -115 at PInnacle last night and now at -130....big line move...
#5: UNDER 6.5 ATL/SF This one will be short and brief. Both pitchers have been spectacular in their last 5 starts with ERA's under 2.0 The O/U is 3-11 in Atlanta's and San Fran's combined 14 games. This will be a tight ball game with neigher offense being hot right now.
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#5: UNDER 6.5 ATL/SF This one will be short and brief. Both pitchers have been spectacular in their last 5 starts with ERA's under 2.0 The O/U is 3-11 in Atlanta's and San Fran's combined 14 games. This will be a tight ball game with neigher offense being hot right now.
#6: OVER 7.5 CIN/PHI As good as Oswalt is he has really struggled against Cincy this year with a 6.75 ERA (Cincy BA was .347 in those games). In 12 innings against him, Cincy batters registered 17 hits, 3 HR's, and 9 ER's of him. He only had 10 K's to 5 BB's in those 2 starts. Actually in his last 3 starts against the Reds, Oswalt has been blasted. Even though he is 22-3 against the Reds life-time, 2 of those 3 losses came in both of his starts this year. In the past 3 starts, he has given up 23 hits in only 17 innings, with 4 HR"s (at least 1 HR in each game), and 13 ER's. Current Cincy batters hit .308 off him with .348 OBP and .863 OPS. I'd be very concerned if I was backing Phillies at -200 today.
On the other side we have Arroyo, who has an ERA of 5.84 and WHIP of 1.6 against the Phillies. Current Phillies batters hit .308 off him with .337 OBP and .837 OPS.
The O/U opened at 7 but has risen to 7.5 We all know that the public does not move #'s on it's own. Sharp money is on the over and I'm tailing.
#6: OVER 7.5 CIN/PHI As good as Oswalt is he has really struggled against Cincy this year with a 6.75 ERA (Cincy BA was .347 in those games). In 12 innings against him, Cincy batters registered 17 hits, 3 HR's, and 9 ER's of him. He only had 10 K's to 5 BB's in those 2 starts. Actually in his last 3 starts against the Reds, Oswalt has been blasted. Even though he is 22-3 against the Reds life-time, 2 of those 3 losses came in both of his starts this year. In the past 3 starts, he has given up 23 hits in only 17 innings, with 4 HR"s (at least 1 HR in each game), and 13 ER's. Current Cincy batters hit .308 off him with .348 OBP and .863 OPS. I'd be very concerned if I was backing Phillies at -200 today.
On the other side we have Arroyo, who has an ERA of 5.84 and WHIP of 1.6 against the Phillies. Current Phillies batters hit .308 off him with .337 OBP and .837 OPS.
The O/U opened at 7 but has risen to 7.5 We all know that the public does not move #'s on it's own. Sharp money is on the over and I'm tailing.
Both pitchers have been on fire lately so we'll look at advanced stats to differentiate the two. Hanson has an FIP of 3.31 (18th best) with an xFIP of 4.04. HIs BABIP of .297 suggests that his #'s are pretty accurate. Cain on the other hand has an FIP of 3.65 and xFIP of 4.19 -- numbers very similar to Hanson's (slightly worse but it's insignificant). What's interesting is that Cain's BABIP is .260 which is 5th luckiest in the majors. His low 36% GB% suggests that he has definitely potential to regress negatively to the mean. His high 75% LOB% suggests it as well (league average around 70%) in addition to the fact that he has given up 4 HR"s in his last 2 starts (Braves have 2 guys in McCann and Heyward that could tee off him tonight)
Lifetime, Cain is 2-2 (team 2-3) against the Braves with a 4.03 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. This year against the Braves he gave up 6 hits and 3 ER's in 5 innings, allowing them to bat .316 with 2 BB's and 4 K's. Even though the current batters are hitting .202 (.277 OBP and .610 OPS) off Cain life-time, this last outing suggests that Atlanta hitters might be figuring him out a bit more now. Hanson is lifetime 1-0 (team 1-1) against the Giants with 2.57 ERA and .929 WHIP. This year he held them to 3 hits and 1 ER in 7 innings. As good as Cain's # are against Braves hitters, Hanson's numbers against the Giants' hitters are even filthier. He holds them to .133 BA, .245 OBP, and only a .445 OPS. We could safely say that he OWNS them.
The Braves are 42-30 after a loss this year and I expect this team to tie the series at 1-1 behind another dominating performance by Tommy Hanson.
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#7: Atlanta Braves +125
Both pitchers have been on fire lately so we'll look at advanced stats to differentiate the two. Hanson has an FIP of 3.31 (18th best) with an xFIP of 4.04. HIs BABIP of .297 suggests that his #'s are pretty accurate. Cain on the other hand has an FIP of 3.65 and xFIP of 4.19 -- numbers very similar to Hanson's (slightly worse but it's insignificant). What's interesting is that Cain's BABIP is .260 which is 5th luckiest in the majors. His low 36% GB% suggests that he has definitely potential to regress negatively to the mean. His high 75% LOB% suggests it as well (league average around 70%) in addition to the fact that he has given up 4 HR"s in his last 2 starts (Braves have 2 guys in McCann and Heyward that could tee off him tonight)
Lifetime, Cain is 2-2 (team 2-3) against the Braves with a 4.03 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. This year against the Braves he gave up 6 hits and 3 ER's in 5 innings, allowing them to bat .316 with 2 BB's and 4 K's. Even though the current batters are hitting .202 (.277 OBP and .610 OPS) off Cain life-time, this last outing suggests that Atlanta hitters might be figuring him out a bit more now. Hanson is lifetime 1-0 (team 1-1) against the Giants with 2.57 ERA and .929 WHIP. This year he held them to 3 hits and 1 ER in 7 innings. As good as Cain's # are against Braves hitters, Hanson's numbers against the Giants' hitters are even filthier. He holds them to .133 BA, .245 OBP, and only a .445 OPS. We could safely say that he OWNS them.
The Braves are 42-30 after a loss this year and I expect this team to tie the series at 1-1 behind another dominating performance by Tommy Hanson.
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