NCAA week 10

Ohio St 23.5 Minnesota (52.5)

Megalocks line 21

Sagarin 25

Of course the big news that every knows about is that Cardale will be QB this week vs the Gophers.....Hard to know how well he is gonna perform the offense was struggling a bit when he was in there but he has surprised us before and they are coming off a bye week....Meanwhile Minny coming off a big emotional effort at home vs Michigan in which they really took it to them but came up short - outgained them - but its all about SCOREBOARD and we wonder about their mental state this week going on the road at ohio st which is never a fun place to play.....Minny has played some nice games at home vs Michigan and TCU early in the year...but they have also played some stinkers....Is the offense finding a new gear or was that a lot of J Kill emotion vs Michigan?? Hard to know. We do know that Ohio St D is playing a lot better but Minny just might be scrappy enough to gut out enough first downs.

Summary. No leanage.

mega

buckeye - thanks great point !!

longhornhoosier  looks like a winner to me - i may add the Char TT under GL buddy

cams - i will answer that question later on don't let me forget ! need to take off for a bit then back tonight

Ok guys will be posting up the rest of the Big10 in the next couple of hours

Some really good questions this wk. Love it you guys have me hopping.

Hulk - Marshall game already on the request list GL pal

Buck , Eyez, MJones  - Mich St write-up in a bit

Calbear - Yes buddy - I am confident in the team Ark will put on the field this wk- Did quite a bit of reading of the local stuff even after I made the bet and do not think that will be the difference in the game - GL

billyh - glad you cashed on NIU ....congrats

gatorhater  love that intel !! thanks. I was leaning the same way you are thinking but it adds way more credibility when somebody that knows the team pipes in.

Cams. Excellent questions. I will be brief but send me a PM if you wanna discuss more. The # games to bet discussion is such an individual thing with no right or wrong do not want to go down a rathole in the thread. 1) I would recommend starting with a book that is friendly to Cdn since you are in Ontario....I have been with B365 no joke for over 20 years and they are reliable as they come. SportsInteraction is also good and based in Canada believe it or not. Try those 2 they both have good interfaces and customer service is good. 2) number of games to bet is complicated. The reason for that is even more important is how much of your bankroll to you play on each wager. Now assuming we are talking about someone like myself who grinds it out - I would recommend 3-4% of your bankroll max on each play with no more than 15%-20% of your bankroll in play in a week. I know it sounds boring and there is no RIGHT way if you want more explanation just PM me. The basic is this - In my 25 years of doing this I have seen all the best cappers at some point in any sport have bad weeks. Unavoidable. Even bad 2-3 week stretches. The best on Covers. It happens. If you want to stay in the game and have fun - you cannot put too much of your capital in play in any given week. If you put 100% of your bank in play in one week even on 10 plays at 10% each....At some point you WILL go 1-9 or 2-8 and POOF you are virtually done or need to reload. I know this week for example if I go 0-3 or even 0-5....15%-20% of my bank hurts but does not kill me. So to answer your question - the more games you play - the less of your bank you play on each one. And max put in play 20% of what you have. only MY opinion NO right answer GL !

GREAT question buddy ! Could talk for hours on that. I promise to respond tomorrow need to get the rest of the Big10 done now.

Michigan St 5.5 Nebraska (58)

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 7

Ok nobody is going to like a lack of ringing endorsement for Sparty in this one....But let me say - as always I am going to give an objective take to maybe help you out.

If you want to know WHY the line line is "low" - it is does appear that way although not to the degree you may think  - our opinion - and just opinion is that when you see 8-0 and Sparty - and who we think is still a fantastic yet underrated HC and rock solid QB - you may NOT think of this: They have allowed 20 points in every game this year except one. Their D is ranked 9th in the Big 10. Let that sink in. We have been on that all year but not taken full advantage of it in the betting markets. .....Further to that - they have not been able to run the ball effectively - ranked #11 in the Big 10. Waaaaaaaat? Further to THAT - yes they are 8-0 but beat purdue by 3 at home....Rutgers by 7....Michigan by you know how....And were only up by 5 early in the 4th at home to Indiana. So there are 3 reasons right there why the line is below a TD and NOT saying they won't cover - but given that - NO chance we play Mich St. Now the good news is that Nebraska D is baaaad. We remember the days of the actual tough Neb D but sooooo long ago - now the run D has been decent but giving up a lot of points and in true Mike Riley fashion - playing stupid football ranked #113 in turnover margin and #104 in penalty yards. Now the interesting thing is that Mich St can rush the passer but Neb can MATRICULATE in the passing game - the backup QB went off for over 400Y last wk yes vs Purdue but 4 td (and 4 int aint bad)....Looks like Armstrong is back this wk and he can sling it to...To be honest - we are gonna read more on this bad boy - Neb #1 RB and #2 and #3 WR are all Q on injury report and like we always say it is a cluster effect we worry about.

Final thought. We noted earlier this year in our thread that Nebraska early on had already set a 20 year or so record for most games lost in the last minute or OT. So 3-6 sure they are not great - but lost on a Hail Mary to BYU - epic coaching debacle to lose to Illinois by 1....lost to Wisc by 2....to NW by 2....to Miami in OT....ya I know they are all losses but this team can play....but at the same time we realize its like the cheating girlfriend that has only been caught with other guys 6 times but will never do it again....yaaa.......right.........

Summary. Lean Neb at +7 if it gets there without bad injury news. Might even be tempted to officially add them at that price. Still looking at the total 58 is fully priced but would lean over as well. No higher tho.

GL mega

Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

 and if you want you can still put $789 trillion on Mich St on Pinnacle at -106.

*** -5.5  -106 ***

Wisconsin 12 Maryland (48.5)

Megalocks line 10

Sagarin 15

Wisconsin is now #1 in the NCAA in scoring D and have once again put together a very solid D...After the Alabama game they have given up 0 3 0 10 21 7 13 10....Clement is back at RB adding not only their #1 back but now they have depth.....We are worried tho a bit about the OL injuries taking a toll and you can see it in the stats - #83 running and #45 passing which is pretty fascinating for a Badger team....QB play has been decent but inconsistent - Stave has been off and on and from what we read some want to see more of Houston even tho Stave rates pretty well in terms of a few passing statistics Badger all time......Aside from the OL is the fact that we just cannot get past who they have beat - Miami oh - troy - Hawaii - Neb by 2 is ok - purdue - Illinois - and Rutgers....When you combine this with the fact that we might be the only people on earth not disgusted with Maryland right now - the points seem a bit SUCCULENT........If you look at YTD stats - we often tell people - you have to be careful and watch to see if anything is TRENDING up or down - well since the coaching change they played a nice game vs Penn St lost by 1 and significantly outgained them....they then went on the road in a horrid spot against Iowa - and while they got 2 return TD late to backdoor cover .....a jam it in the stinkhole special.....what is lost in that game is that Maryland held iowa to less than 300Y and were doomed by -3 in turnovers.

Summary - lean Maryland at 13+. lean under. As with the Husker game - need to sleep on this one and let it simmer for a while - if we lose the current lines - oh well.

mega

Northwestern 2.5 Penn St (40.5)

Megalocks line 2

Sagarin 2

Another game where technically the line appears to be in the right ballpark.....This game is so strange - neither team can be trusted. Penn St is inconsistent running the ball and gives up the most sacks / game in Big 10 although it has been way better since the Temple game (10) and the QB has actually been ok - only 2 int all year have to give him props - but right around 55% completions with a pretty good receiving group seems odd.....and they are unproven this yr away from home - only 3 games - loss to temple - blown out by ohio st - 1 pt win over Maryland in Baltimore....NW loses 2 games by combined 78-10 and then goes to Neb and wins SU as a 7 pt dog....QB did it all passing for 177 running for 126 but having a hard time seeing penn st not shut them down....hmmmmm tough one....Total seems about right - penn has scored 20 in every game but 2.

Summary. Lean Penn at +3 or more - have a feeling the team that plays the best in this one loses.

mega

Illinois 2.5 Purdue (53)

Megalocks line 1

Sagarin 3

Would love to hear a HOT TAKE on this one - seems to be a complete tossup; Purdue came up with HCs 2nd big10 win in 3 yrs beating Neb last yr - probably their super bowl b/c no bowl this yr....QB Blough looked good last wk throwing for 4 td running for 82Y and another - and they have beaten Illinois 8L10 SU...Just really have a hard time backing a team with that kind of defense -12 in the big 10 and this might be the kind of team QB Lunt can get going against - Also hard to figure where Illinois is at b/c assuming they need 6 wins for a bg - this is by far their easiest one left....BUT - off 2 physical games vs penn and Wisconsin??

Summary. No lean on side. Lean over at 54 or less.

mega

(seem like some potential plays in the big 10 slate just need a day to mull it over)

Great stuff Brother!!

Iowa 7 Indiana (60.5)

Megalocks line 8

Sagarin 17

Lean to the fav here - one of the best Ds in the NCAA and a great run game going up against the worst D in the big 10. What worries us is that Iowa has not seen an offense like Indiana and joke all you want this team played one heck of a game against ohio st at home and played sparty tough on the road for 3Q only down by 5.....Had this one pegged as a game to play on Sunday just did not pull the trigger.....Always want the better D but Indiana's proven ability this yr to give good team fits makes us a bit hesitant.

Summary. No leanage although it is probably a 24873857904875892347 unit play for sagarin.

mega

dkelley - thanks !! GL this wk bro

VITS

iloseagain - may get to the Louisville game but only if I have time on Friday sorry buddy already a bunch of requests in the hopper GL pal

dan