Posted:
#226
saw Illinois STEAMING v Purdue. Thought maybe Hot Carl had made a pick here. but no.
NCAA week 10
Posted:
#227
Mega, got a situation on Middle Tenn and Marshall.About 3 weeks ago we discussed Sagarin ratings. We both use it. We had Navy as fav playing AF at 11. Navy's rating was lower. I use a 5 point difference. Navy won ATS. Then we had South Fl at home vs Syracuse. South Fl rating was at least 5 lower as Fav. South Fl win ATS. Tou liked Syracuse in that one . We discussed that game. We have had a few more like this year and many over the years. There is a bout a 90% accuracy rate on taking the lower rating in these situations. Now we have Marshall as dawg with the higher rating at Middle Tenn. System says to take Middle Tenn. I'm trying to get to the 100% accuracy rate for my parlay and this is one of my picks. Only been studying college football since 1983 but never have hit my 10 team parlay. Hit plenty of nine and eight team parlay. Could I please have your opinion on this game. As mush as you write , I know you put in a lot of ours studying games and Thank you. I'm asking you because you are a better capper than me right as I am learning more from your discussions. Thanks again
Posted:
#228
Quote Originally Posted by pjam37:
Mega, got a situation on Middle Tenn and Marshall.About 3 weeks ago we discussed Sagarin ratings. We both use it. We had Navy as fav playing AF at 11. Navy's rating was lower. I use a 5 point difference. Navy won ATS. Then we had South Fl at home vs Syracuse. South Fl rating was at least 5 lower as Fav. South Fl win ATS. Tou liked Syracuse in that one . We discussed that game. We have had a few more like this year and many over the years. There is a bout a 90% accuracy rate on taking the lower rating in these situations. Now we have Marshall as dawg with the higher rating at Middle Tenn. System says to take Middle Tenn. I'm trying to get to the 100% accuracy rate for my parlay and this is one of my picks. Only been studying college football since 1983 but never have hit my 10 team parlay. Hit plenty of nine and eight team parlay. Could I please have your opinion on this game. As mush as you write , I know you put in a lot of ours studying games and Thank you. I'm asking you because you are a better capper than me right as I am learning more from your discussions. Thanks again
Mega, got a situation on Middle Tenn and Marshall.About 3 weeks ago we discussed Sagarin ratings. We both use it. We had Navy as fav playing AF at 11. Navy's rating was lower. I use a 5 point difference. Navy won ATS. Then we had South Fl at home vs Syracuse. South Fl rating was at least 5 lower as Fav. South Fl win ATS. Tou liked Syracuse in that one . We discussed that game. We have had a few more like this year and many over the years. There is a bout a 90% accuracy rate on taking the lower rating in these situations. Now we have Marshall as dawg with the higher rating at Middle Tenn. System says to take Middle Tenn. I'm trying to get to the 100% accuracy rate for my parlay and this is one of my picks. Only been studying college football since 1983 but never have hit my 10 team parlay. Hit plenty of nine and eight team parlay. Could I please have your opinion on this game. As mush as you write , I know you put in a lot of ours studying games and Thank you. I'm asking you because you are a better capper than me right as I am learning more from your discussions. Thanks again
So, you are saying that when there is at least a 5 point delta between Sagarin and Vegas the FAVORITE is ATS 90%??? 
I'm convinced. The best play sometimes is the no play. However playing Buffalo -3 and the O62 on Western Michigan. While 62 is kind of high I'm kind of confident on this bad boy. 
GL. and get my girlfriend out of your avatar.
**They just had a team meeting guy**
Posted:
#233
Tennessee 17 S Carolina (58)
Megalocks line 14
Sagarin 17
Sucked out of our SC play last week vs T AM as the line started dropping as soon as we wanted to play it 
it happens....Seem to have a breath of new life after the coaching change - Orth / Wilds doing damage but the thing is their defense still needs some players ranked 13th in the SEC - so while 17 is a lot of points - hard to jump in with both feet - in particular - Tennessee run offense #2 in SEC and SC run d is last in the SEC....and who is playing better than Tenn right now ? After down 24-3 to Ga - stormed back to win that - then outrushed and almost beat Bama - then destroyed Kentucky.....Hard to fade a team like that BUT we still think 17 is a boatload and fwiw the last 3 games between these 2 teams - decided by3 2 3 points....How much new coach adrenaline does SC have left when Tenn pounds the living poo out of them with the run game ? too risky to lay full lumber but maybe a small degenerate taste if you feel like it would not be the worst thing ever.
Summary - lean SC 17+....Cannot justify a play on this tho.
mega
Posted:
#238
Quote Originally Posted by Dodgy:
no, what I am saying is that if the Fav has a lower rating 5 points lower, then is its 90%. most of the time, the higher rating is the fav. Point speads are made using these ratings, then adjusted from that point in accordance the situation.(injury, practice time, coaching, weather, ect)
So, you are saying that when there is at least a 5 point delta between Sagarin and Vegas the FAVORITE is ATS 90%???
Posted:
#239
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Tennessee 17 S Carolina (58)
Megalocks line 14
Sagarin 17
Sucked out of our SC play last week vs T AM as the line started dropping as soon as we wanted to play it it happens....Seem to have a breath of new life after the coaching change - Orth / Wilds doing damage but the thing is their defense still needs some players ranked 13th in the SEC - so while 17 is a lot of points - hard to jump in with both feet - in particular - Tennessee run offense #2 in SEC and SC run d is last in the SEC....and who is playing better than Tenn right now ? After down 24-3 to Ga - stormed back to win that - then outrushed and almost beat Bama - then destroyed Kentucky.....Hard to fade a team like that BUT we still think 17 is a boatload and fwiw the last 3 games between these 2 teams - decided by3 2 3 points....How much new coach adrenaline does SC have left when Tenn pounds the living poo out of them with the run game ? too risky to lay full lumber but maybe a small degenerate taste if you feel like it would not be the worst thing ever.
Summary - lean SC 17+....Cannot justify a play on this tho. mega
On my short list.... I'll have my finger on the trigger when it drops to Tenn -16.5 on Saturday morning 
Vols are hitting stride... they'll finish as the hottest SEC team.
Vols are hitting stride... they'll finish as the hottest SEC team. 
Posted:
#244
Quote Originally Posted by Cambo_Dragon18:
Can someone tell me the line movement from buffalo-3 to +1? Thank you
Can someone tell me the line movement from buffalo-3 to +1? Thank you
Big name tout on Kent St 
I have been watching this one like a hawk all week....I noted that I hate when a line just sits there at -2.5 forever - often that means the line is gonna go down for whatever reason - injury - suspension - or Tout Scum Inc releasing a 2457239485723489 UNIT HAMMER PLAY 
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