NCAA week 10

Then the Wolfpack lost senior running back Shadrach Thornton and now it has lost junior running back Matt Dayes.

Dayes, the team’s leading rusher and the ACC’s leader in rushing touchdowns, suffered a foot injury in last Saturday’s loss to Clemson. He is scheduled to have surgery on Friday and will miss the remainder of the season, the school announced.

Dayes was on pace to become N.C. State’s first 1,000-yard rusher since 2002 before injuring his left foot in the final minute of the first half of the 56-41 home loss to Clemson. The 5-9, 203-pound junior from Weston, Fla. rushed for 865 yards on 134 carries in the first eight games. He averaged 108.1 yard per game, third-best in the ACC, and the most by an N.C. State running back since Joe McIntosh in 1981.

“I’m disappointed for Matt because he was having a really good year,” N.C. State coach Dave Doeren said in a statement released by the school on Thursday night. “But in football you’ve got to have a ‘next man up’ mentality, and I’m confident that his teammates will be ready to take on bigger roles and be successful.”

N.C. State will turn to sophomore Jaylen Samuels, who has spent the majority of his time at tight end this season. Samuels replaced Dayes in the second half of the Clemson game and ran for 65 yards and a touchdown.

On the season, Samuels has 208 yards on 29 carries and six touchdowns.

hey buddy. mentioned this in my write-up Sunday or Monday that I assumed he was out. GL pal

Don't love that game buddy but yes I think that is a winner. I have zero money down tonight just my 2 cents ! GL

Texas AM 7 Auburn (59.5)

Megalocks line 8

Sagarin 8

Do have a lean to the Aggies in this one....Love the fact that K Murray is getting a shot at QB looked great last wk running and passing given T AM that boost to the run game it needed- 321 Y rushing in the game- yes it was the SC D but guess what - Auburn is last in the SEC in D and 2nd to last in TFL and sacks per game so T AM should be able to move the ball without a problem....Of course the issue is that our pals at S Carolina managed to tear through that AM D with a huge rushing day of their own and kept it to a one score game.....As well - Auburn should be able to churn out some first downs and even S White with a knee brace at QB is pretty good....like him quite a bit.....Just so hard to lay a TD when your D is struggling so much would feel better if TAM could just line up and use their deadly pass rush but Auburn's misdirection and crafty running QB make it tough.

Summary. Lean T AM at -7 or better.

Alabama 6.5 LSU (47.5)

Megalocks line - 7

Sagarin - 8.5

Well it is finally here ! Cannot wait for this game

Everyone has read enough on this game - we know we have turned over every rock between here and Madagascar trying to find any scrub of INTEL that might give us an edge. Our SEC INSIDERS have been working around the clock.

If you like Alabama to cover you really like the D - especially the front 7.....They have been an absolute rock against the run. You probably also feel pretty good about their resume - have played the 9th toughest schedule (LSU #37) and are battle tested have had to gut out a couple wins including the last one vs a white hot Tennessee team. Finally - you have to like the fact that LSU has given up 20 points every game this season after the opening wk (19 vs Miss St) so there will be plays to be made.

Now if you are getting a full 7 points - it is hard for us to not lean to LSU. The Tigers have been very good on offense this year - scored 21 the first game - and 45 34 44 45 35 48 in the other games.....QB Harris to us is underrated. We like Coker as well. Ignore the haters look at the facts and you pick more winners. Harris has not thrown an INT all year and say all you want about being conservative he has made some nice throws - has big time receivers - and has mobility to help him escape trouble. Of course we know Alabama will be a serious serious test but the upside with the LSU passing game is what provides the most intrigue for us.....14th in passing yards but 4th in passer rating in the SEC. What else do we like ? Alabama is 0-5 ATS at home....somehow we are 2-0 betting on them tho ....and the last game after a tough tough stretch mind you they were outrushed by Tennessee. They are ranked 7th in the SEC in offense and #5 in rushing while LSU is #2 in offense....#1 in rushing #1 in yards/carry....On the defensive side - another sneaky bit of upside is that Alabama is #111 in NCAA in 3rd down conversions - which might be because they are DEAD LAST (#14) in the SEC in TFL / game allowed... That is a lot of negative plays. ...The last 5 yrs they were ranked 2 3 2 4 2 ....so we are not Bama experts but something is wrong - we have watched a lot of their games and for the record STILL have them in our top 1-2 teams like we have ALL YEAR - just saying the OL may be the weakness not many are considering. 7 points seems succulent even tho Fade The Public Dog guy will hate it.

Final considerations? Weather - looks like rain or at a minimum a very wet field. You guys decide what to do with that. It is guess work IMO. Sure - LSU has a more reliable PK. That may or may not matter. And if we are not mistaken - this is a huge rivalry game (HOT TAKE) in which there is often OT or a game that is close at the end - 2013 notwithstanding.

Summary. Lean to LSU at +7 or better. Not sure what we are going to do with the total - Gonna wait it out and see if more people pound it lower...and then maybe go OFF THE TOP ROPE WITH A FOLDING CHAIR and make an over play. We know everyone is calling for 9-6 and 4-2 and scores in that neighborhood.

Sit tight. No official play yet but think we will have something here.

GL mega

THREAD SUMMARY

picks

NC St -2 (would play up to -3; half size at -3.5 or -4 max)

Arkansas +11 (would play down to 10)

Georgia / Kentucky under 58.5 (would play down to 58)

ORDER of appearance for write-ups

NC State / BC (post 38)

Arkanasas / Ole Miss (post 55)

Tuesday - NIU / Toledo (post 65)

Wednesday - BG / Ohio (post 66)

Thursday - Buffalo / Kent (post 72) ; W Mich / Ball (post 88)

Thursday - Baylor / K St (post 92) ; App St / Ark St (post 98)

Thursday - Mizz / Miss St (post 99) / Fresno / Nevada (post 111)

Friday - UTEP/Rice (post 125) Temple/SMU (post 126)

Friday - BYU / SJ St (post 134)

Big 10 - Mich / Rutgers (post 159) Ohio St / Minn (post 160)

Request line - FIU / Charlotte (post 170)

Big 10 - Mich St / Neb (188) Wisc / Mary (193) Penn / NW (195)

Big 10 - Purdue / Illinois (197) Iowa / Indiana (199)

SEC - Ga / Kentucky (215) Fla / Vandy (219)

SEC - SC / Tenn (233) Aub / TAM (258) Bama / LSU (259)

UP NEXT - REQUEST LINE  (owe you 4 more)

Pretty much exclusively my plays only ....For example have no plans to bet on any weekday games this entire week. From time to time will make a degenerate play of some kind - but for the most part my leans are for people that want action / teaser / parlay choices. The leans are still probable winners. We just do not bet that many games anymore do much better being more selective. GL !

Hey buddy

1. Always go with your gut. Don't let me or anyone else talk you out of a strong feeling.

2. FYI - our INSIDERS tell us that J Thomas is ready to go but that it would not shock us to see him get limited time given the importance of USF / Memphis games next up.

3. Our INSIDERS are also worried about the starting C being out. We think this is a big deal but like the depth on their OL. You can never underestimate an exp C being out. Thankfully SMU DL does not present much of a challenge BUT as we noted in our write-up we do not like the spot for Temple and SMU is improving.

4. Line moves often tell the tale. It trickled up to 14 briefly now down to 13 most places....Keep an eye on it throughout the day if more guys are gonna be down for this game - you will see the spread trickle down even further IMO into the 11/11.5 range.

just our 2 cents.

GL ! mega 

oops owe you guys 6 REQUEST games

will get those up today

WYNN

Will drop only if someone gets a whiff of players being out and that will not happen probably until very late. Just a guess. 50/50 IMO it drops a tiny bit.....50/50 it stays at 13ish. GL

nunong  will do my best to get to the Clemson game gonna look at it tonight I think GL

don

florida55 - see nopressure's post #272

nopressure - thx man

REQUEST LINE ....Megalocks...."A global network"

MTSU 3 Marshall (57)

Megalocks line pk

Sagarin - MARSHALL 3

Dug into this one for the masses.....Marshall is 8-1 and while they have not had much of a schedule - they have handled business very nicely - and its not like MTSU can talk - they have beat Jackson St Charlotte and FIU I mean like for real ....They are 3-5 and need to find 3 wins in the last 4 weeks to become bowl eligible doubt they would get in with 5 if it comes to that since they were snubbed last yr at 6-6....Marshall and WK are undefeated in conf play and probably play for a trip to the conf game on Nov 27....A loss here would not kill them unless they also lose to FIU...WK is the must win game so we think They Need To Win Guy is all over MTSU but their D is bad - Marshall's is good...Marshall HC is also very underrated ATS.....Finally - it is a bad matchup for MTSU - they like to pass - Marshall is #1 in NCAA in pass eff D - yes we already conceded the schedule - but they did hold SMiss to 10. Johnson out at RB for Marshall - also #2 guy is Q. MTSU has 3 of top 4 RB as Q. Its that time of year.

Summary. Not touching this game. Gun to the head and make a correct pick or leave Covers forever - we would go Marshall TT over 27. Think they can MATRICULATE if needed - 486Y passing last wk vs Charlotte and MTSU likes tempo should get a good number of possessions.

mega