BOWL GUIDE 2016-17

Having said this, I'm still kind of torn on this game because I can't see SDST's QB exploiting Houston's D like Ferguson did for Memphis. I've seen SDST play 3 times this year and haven't been overly impressed with them despite them winning the MWC. I think most of it hinges on if Houston "shows up."

I'm no expert at math but please re-read what you just posted

Are you going to put up a card based on all these research (thank you) you did?

I know, pardon me for being pedantic.  I'm overtired. 

FWIW risking 2200 to win 100 is the one of the most idiotic propositions I've ever heard of, and I was around my fair share of morons who bet large sums on HRC while I was trying to convince them to tail my Trump +500 bet

All good man! TRUMP was easy money!  

rocky a good defensive coach, though. lots of strange looks.

you think I would lay 10 with Army .....to a team that beat 'em by 3TD at home?...........
    *sorry ......that's a lazy c/p from earlier......> might leave it there too........might NEED the W ha

Houston......can TAKE AWAY......the IDENTITY of SDSU
  *shut down their running game....force SDSU into 3rd/longs.....force Chapman to win it ?............
  *Cougs are a pressure D / super tough vs the run (#4) and very disruptive / getting penetration (#4).....tough vs efficient O's like SDSU (#14).......SDSU O #107 on PD (passing downs) > Coug D #11.....Cougs don't get a ton of sacks but SDSU #117 in sacks allowed......they might bust a few long runs.....but overall they should have a tough time moving the chains here

Aztec D actually matches up nicely vs Houston O.....but Cougs have PACE (#6).....and a (MOTIVATED / more healthy) WARD ...............something they haven't seen much of
 
Cougs have some 'unfinished' business (SDSU not really).....plus off a LOSS.....note:  Cougs haven't lost BB (back to back) games since late 2013 
    *they seem to like Major.......I see a  >>  'show we don't need Herman anyway' ... type response.....rather than disappointment.....?
     $  IF DC Orlando had left......IF they had blown out Memphis...I might look at a bit it differently..............
 

c'mon man forget it he's rollin'...........................

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vtWB4owdE

a day of mourning for all Sooner fans SL..............

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2016/12/12/former-oklahoma-all-american-jimbo-elrod-killed-in-crash/95336686/

HUMANS ......are extremely FRAGILE
  *'cept me.....and you boys of course

Houston lost to Memphis?.....largely because of their HUGE W over Louisville......they had NOTHING left
  *previous issues had to do somewhat also with CONSTANT talk / rumors of their coach leaving......you say it's no big deal.....but it is......

Wife threatening to leave / take the kids.....kick your sorry azz outta the house YOU paid for WTF........
  *YOU will say you're doing your best at work.....YOU can block it out......NO ........you can't.................


RECHARGED......coaching situation SETTLED now.....they should be good to go

Speaking of Memphis......
  *WKU?.....their season ENDED on Dec 3....CUSA championship > HC profited off their efforts > hauled azz.......THEY ARE DONE

Memphis?...young team with new HC.....playing with confidence (from MUCH tougher conference)......a 5 pt DOG?............

I remember him well. He was the "pretty boy" of Sooner football. Always played his best ball in the big games. 

I know, that's what concerns me. SDST's defense looked a little tired coming down the stretch. But with a few weeks rest I'm thinking they could be tough here. 

that said, not sure how seriously he takes the bowls. put a hurting on cincinnati last year but i've seen him take it pretty easy in bowls before.

He seems to win a bowl game about every other year. But no real pattern to his bowls. They don't get blown out by any of their opponents, so they look like they give the effort. He might look at this as a challenge to his team since they are the dogs for the first time in a few years.

incredible info here. i dont follow college so this ha been an excellent starting point for me. really like the south carolina game from the angles you pointed out. BOL this year kind sir

Weather in Vegas will be cold and windy brrr48

ANYBODY here...... wanna win some money?

ONCE the game starts...a team's performance is fairly predictable.....
       *BEFORE.....who TF knows right?.............................

remember too.....only around 3-5X or so.....will the DOG cover....and NOT win the game too....
  *last 6 yrs : 3X > 3 > 3 > 4 > 4 > 3

$$    bet your strong dogs on the ML maybe.......and /or if you don't think the dog can win the game....maybe back off.....
     *don't forget on those bowl confidence pools as well......only take dogs you think can win.....

 
$$$    SU bowl winners are  737-117-12 ATS since 1980   $$$



2015 1H / 2H notes.....
  *one of the things we (usually)  see in these season ending games....is that a team is READY to play.....or they ARE NOT.....meaning what you see in the 2H...is much of what you saw in the 1H
       $  it might happen occasionally...esp with a great senior QB...but seldom POOF!...does a team 'find it' in--game


before 12/25
  *overall   Favorites were 7-5 ATS / 8 of 12 went OVER
        note:   only 2X did DOG cover...but not WIN the game (Ohio / NMX)

1H     Fav were 6-4-2 SU / 6-6 ATS / 6-6 OU >
2H     Fav were 9-3 SU / 8-4 ATS / 8-4 OU


12/26-12/30
  *overall Fav were 10-6 ATS / 9-7 OU
      note:  only ONCE did the DOG cover and not WIN SU (Tulsa)

1H    Fav were 10-3-3 SU / 8-8 ATS / 10-6 OU
2H    Fav were 9-3-4 SU / 8-8 ATS / 5-11 OU


after 12/31
  *overall Fav were 8-5 ATS / 8-5 OU
       note:  only ONCE did dog cover and not win (Clemson)

1H    Fav went 10-2-1 SU / 9-4 ATS / 7-6 OU
2H    Fav went 6-7 SU / 5-8 ATS / 9-4 OU



from 2014

 1H / 2H

< 12/25

1H   FAV 7-4 SU / 6-5 ATS
     O/U 6-5 ATS
  * only once in 4 games did fav come back to win game SU

2H   FAV 6-5 SU / ATS
     O/U 6-5

12/26 > 12/31

1H  FAV 7-10 SU / 6-11 ATS
    O/U 11-6 ATS
 * only one time in 10 games did fav come back and win SU

2H  FAV 10-7 SU / 8-9 ATS
    O/U 7-10 ATS 

> 1/1

1H  FAV 10-2 SU / 9-3 ATS
    OU 6-6 ATS
 *in 2 games fav did NOT come back to win SU

SO...only 2X in 16 games did fav come back to win SU
  *only ONCE did fav come back to cover GAME





ALSO...........

2015

What happened ......?
 
If the favorite was up / tied at halftime?

  *  < 12/25            (8X)   8-0 SU / 6-2 ATS (they won every game / covered 6/8)

  *  12/25 - 12/30  (13)   11-2 SU / 10-3 ATS
 
 *  > 12/31            (11)   9-2 SU / 8-3 ATS

How bout if DOG was up / tied?

  * < 12/25          (6)       3-3 ATS (onl/y once when up)

  * 12/25 -12/30  (6)      5-1 ATS (thart one tied when tied at half)

  * > 12/31           (3)      3-0 ATS

      $$$    SO - ONLY ONE TIME...when the dog was up at halftime (9X)...did they not cover the game..... looking at the 6 ties (at half)....favorite covered usually (4/6)

     $$$$$   ONLY TWICE....did the FAV (if down at the half) come back to win the game
                     *really only ONCE did they come back and take charge the 2H....WKU.....down by only 4 tho.....won game by 10
                        other was App St was down by 10....won last minute by 2 seems like



$$   How often does the team that covered 1H....cover 2H too?
 
 * < 12/25                only 4X....outta 12 games

  * 12/25 - 12/30       8/16

  * > 12/25                7/13
         >>  suggesting the LATER / more meaningful games...you are more likely to see a consistent effort from one half to another

$$   If 1H is high / low scoring.....2H likely to be the same?

  * < 12/25              8/12  2H was the opposite (meaning if 1H went over > 2H went under / vice versa)

  * 12/25 -12/30      only 7/16  2H was different

  *> 12/31                8/13 2H was opposite
        >>  been my (casual) observation...that scoring usually flips from 1H > 2H.......  LY 23X / 41 games                    

IF CONSIDERING ......THE UNDER
  *should you just play the 1H under instead?

In bowls...once a team figures out they have no shot at winning > SEASON OVER........many times you see a late give-up / last minute scoring by winners
     * why?....players know coach can't kick their azz the next practice for 'quitting'

AND.....bowls (especially early ones) are 'supposed' to be FUN......a REWARD.....in the minds of many
  *DEFENSE requires more effort....

      $$$   after a LONGER lay-off.....the defense has a clear edge....offenses often take longer to get going >>  another reason to play the 1H under


Before 12/25.....4 games went UNDER
     *1H went every time

12/26 > 12/30.....7 went under.....1H went under 5X

After 12/30........5 went under.....1H under 4X

NOTE:     IF the 1H went under.....10/16 games the 2H went OVER

BTW.....the answer to the question
  *OK where did you get the 1H / 2H lines ?

Had to GUESS of course.....esp on 2H O/U
  * fortunately....most weren't close / fairly easy to figure out

New here and hoping to do better than my disastrous 2015 (20-20, losing 6 of the first 7 games).  I think I focus too much on the psychology and ignore that some teams may be more motivated but still lack the talent to win (or cover).  Like Old Dominion v. E. Michigan - I'm swayed by how excited EM is to be in a bowl game, especially after their football program was almost scrapped.  Am I wrong to want to take EM and the points?