ANYBODY here...... wanna win some money?
ONCE the game starts...a team's performance is fairly predictable.....
*BEFORE.....who TF knows right?.............................
remember too.....only around 3-5X or so.....will the DOG cover....and NOT win the game too....
*last 6 yrs : 3X > 3 > 3 > 4 > 4 > 3
$$ bet your strong dogs on the ML maybe.......and /or if you don't think the dog can win the game....maybe back off.....
*don't forget on those bowl confidence pools as well......only take dogs you think can win.....
$$$ SU bowl winners are 737-117-12 ATS since 1980 $$$2015 1H / 2H notes.....
*one of the things we (usually) see in these season ending games....is that a team is READY to play.....or they ARE NOT.....meaning what you see in the 2H...is much of what you saw in the 1H
$ it might happen occasionally...esp with a great senior QB...but seldom POOF!...does a team 'find it' in--game
before 12/25 *overall Favorites were 7-5 ATS / 8 of 12 went OVER
note: only 2X did DOG cover...but not WIN the game (Ohio / NMX)
1H Fav were 6-4-2 SU / 6-6 ATS / 6-6 OU >
2H Fav were 9-3 SU / 8-4 ATS / 8-4 OU
12/26-12/30 *overall Fav were 10-6 ATS / 9-7 OU
note: only ONCE did the DOG cover and not WIN SU (Tulsa)
1H Fav were 10-3-3 SU / 8-8 ATS / 10-6 OU
2H Fav were 9-3-4 SU / 8-8 ATS / 5-11 OU
after 12/31 *overall Fav were 8-5 ATS / 8-5 OU
note: only ONCE did dog cover and not win (Clemson)
1H Fav went 10-2-1 SU / 9-4 ATS / 7-6 OU
2H Fav went 6-7 SU / 5-8 ATS / 9-4 OU
from 2014 1H / 2H
< 12/25
1H FAV 7-4 SU / 6-5 ATS
O/U 6-5 ATS
* only once in 4 games did fav come back to win game SU
2H FAV 6-5 SU / ATS
O/U 6-5
12/26 > 12/31
1H FAV 7-10 SU / 6-11 ATS
O/U 11-6 ATS
* only one time in 10 games did fav come back and win SU
2H FAV 10-7 SU / 8-9 ATS
O/U 7-10 ATS
> 1/1
1H FAV 10-2 SU / 9-3 ATS
OU 6-6 ATS
*in 2 games fav did NOT come back to win SU
SO...only 2X in 16 games did fav come back to win SU
*only ONCE did fav come back to cover GAME
ALSO...........
2015
What happened ......?
If the favorite was up / tied at halftime?
* < 12/25 (8X) 8-0 SU / 6-2 ATS (they won every game / covered 6/8)
* 12/25 - 12/30 (13) 11-2 SU / 10-3 ATS
* > 12/31 (11) 9-2 SU / 8-3 ATS
How bout if DOG was up / tied?
* < 12/25 (6) 3-3 ATS (onl/y once when up)
* 12/25 -12/30 (6) 5-1 ATS (thart one tied when tied at half)
* > 12/31 (3) 3-0 ATS
$$$ SO - ONLY ONE TIME...when the dog was up at halftime (9X)...did they not cover the game..... looking at the 6 ties (at half)....favorite covered usually (4/6)
$$$$$ ONLY TWICE....did the FAV (if down at the half) come back to win the game
*really only ONCE did they come back and take charge the 2H....WKU.....down by only 4 tho.....won game by 10
other was App St was down by 10....won last minute by 2 seems like $$ How often does the team that covered 1H....cover 2H too?
* < 12/25 only 4X....outta 12 games
* 12/25 - 12/30 8/16
* > 12/25 7/13
>> suggesting the LATER / more meaningful games...you are more likely to see a consistent effort from one half to another
$$ If 1H is high / low scoring.....2H likely to be the same?
* < 12/25 8/12 2H was the opposite (meaning if 1H went over > 2H went under / vice versa)
* 12/25 -12/30 only 7/16 2H was different
*> 12/31 8/13 2H was opposite
>> been my (casual) observation...that scoring usually flips from 1H > 2H....... LY 23X / 41 games
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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