BOWL GUIDE 2016-17

........didn't read any of that stuff


I STILL ........don't get
  *the INCREDIBLY strong URGE / NEED to overreact to any short term wins....or losses


I  was what 1/12 or something..............so what

then

WF  +14                                         W
Kansas St  +3                                W
S Caro  +10'                                  W
Okie St  +3                                   W
N Caro  +3'                                   W
Fla St  +8                                       W
Clemson +3'                                   W
Minny  +7'                                      W
NW / Pitt 2H over 31'                    L
Indiana / Utah UNDER 54'          W
S Caro +2 2H                                  W
Georgia P                                        W
NC / Tree  OVER   54                    L
LSU  -3'                                            W
Kentucky  +3                                   L
Indiana  +7'                                    W
Ark  +4 1H                                     W
VT  -2'  3Q                                     W
Wash +7' 1H                                    L


added 4-1 on small stuff I didn't post....plus added Philly P today in-game .......I've hit 20 of my last 25 bets .....give or take
   * I  admit tho.....being surprised at BOTH runs > calling my own damm self a dumbazz and pretty sharp in same week........

Happy New Year D-UP.........BOL in 2017................

here's a conference breakdown....
   *from Vegas Insider   (cfb home > bowl central > 2016-17 results)


                  SU         ATS 

AAC          2-5          2-5
ACC          8-3          9-2
B10            2-5          3-4
B12            3-2          3-2
CUSA       4-3          4-3
IND           2-0           0-2
MAC         0-4           2-2           
MTW          4-3          4-3
P12            2-3          0-5
SEC            5-5          5-5
SB              4-2          3-3

DAWGS.....came thru JMan!......never a doubt................

Those Gators are beat to helll....
  * rumors of possible high draft picks sitting out.....plus definitive word on QB Del Rio ......meanwhile looks like 5/8 top tacklers are out.....including all  3 LB's....................


In fact.....

I'll add a smaller play on Iowa +3.....might add to it in-game/halftime
  *Gators ready to play?.....we'll know early

There he is....................................

Sooners win 65-50 !.....or so

Hey BA, I really appreciate the time you spend on here. I would appreciate if you would go a little more in depth on Penn St. USC. match up. My rookie thinking is USC is much more talented pretty much across the board, if Penn St. gets off to a slow start like is usual for them, they will have to contend with a very solid secondary to try to throw to catch up. I don't see why USC. would not be motivated, while PSU's motivation may be a little questionable. But it is still the Rose Bowl. Even if PSU is ready to play, I just don't see them able to hang with the Trojans. Again, your thoughts would be appreciated.   

adding USC  -4 1H
  *small play....as last game was 11/26 / may be rusty early ?

But O and D are MUCH better 1H / Penn St O & D much better 2H

Numbers are S&P rankings (per Bill C).....offense 1st / defense next

                 1Q          2Q          3Q           4Q
 
Penn St     49/54      42/35        2/25           2/2

USC          5/18         5/4          17/41          60/28

adding Clemson ML at +225
 *one unit play


More of a HUNCH......
  *not sure I can recommend this play too much.....Bama is clearly a freaking MACHINE.....smart thing is probably to play Bama or just pass...........OR take a shot at Clemson ML
  *think......huge shark in the water / don't jump in wtf.....incoming freight train?......just get outta the way idiot..................



DON'T BE CONFUSED.....
  *Saban running Kiffin outta town is huge

USE YOUR NOGGIN......Saban CLEARLY unhappy with Kiffin's game prep / in-game adjustments > got in his face (the 1000th time) > Kiffin said F'off......I don't need this shiit

So Sark......get's his DEBUT.....in the NATIONAL TITLE GAME.??...............................

I think Clemson can at least slow Bama down......I like (the best player in CFB the last 2 years > no Heisman).....
   * DW and his great set of skill players.....to get it done here.....

not a bad idea.......

PSU also the #1 scoring O (4Q) at 13 pts......their D #9 at 4 pts

Trojans score 5 pts / allow 6.5

I usually do these small.....because flow of the game might screw it up......Penn St is UP.....then what?.................

added to Iowa......in-game ML
  *small play.......essentially giving me one unit or so.... on Iowa

Just ME?.......or anybody else HATE that Mike Patrick / big Ed Cunningham team?........................

Iowa QB is hurt. Bad luck for Iowa. I doubt their backup is any good.

sorry man almost forgot.......................
  *you did a pretty good job looks like......not much I can add

ISSUES?

$     How good is Penn State?.....
  *have they ARRIVED?.......a team that could hang in the play-offs?

OR......were they playing 'over their pumpkin heads'.....>and will get their azz handed to 'em here?.............

  *I....have no idea.......I actually side with you a bit.....I took the early 7'.......as what looked like nice value at the time.....since have played USC 1H.....and will add in-game / halftime if needed

$       Look at it this way.......WHAT TEAM.....is probably.....the 4th best team in the country?......as I said a month ago......likely USC
  *OU might be favored over USC.....but gimme USC.....if OU destroys Auburn.....then we'll see ha

$  It appears to me.....that USC is in a really nice SPOT here
        * PSU?.....after a few really tough years....may (kinda sorta) be more RELIEVED......their struggle is over......a we're just happy to be here kinda thing................................................maybe


PSU actually matches up OK with USC
  *primarily a big play O (mostly passing).....USC D strong vs efficient / move the chains O's......but vulnerable to the big play.....
>>    #93 overall.....#81 passing.....#79 running 

USC O much like their D.....much more efficient than explosive
  *PSU D?.......#29 vs efficient O's......and is solid all the way around.....they get penetration (#20).....and can bring heat ...#29
  NOTE:   PSU with a ST (10 > 16)  and TO margin (43 > 77) edge


Looks to me like USC jumps out early in a lower scoring 1H.......PSU comes back late as always (see #'s I gave earlier).....in a higher scoring 2H..............
    *  USC wins by 6-10 or so ?.............................

Thanks for takin' the time to answer BA.

SBNation...........a (better) but still tough to navigate site.......

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-college-football-advanced-statistical-profiles?_ga=1.100405277.2035023254.1474215334

kinda .....sorta ......liking PSU's work in the trenches
  *need more shots of the SWEATERS tho


 check out Penn St's rushing numbers by quarters.. ..a GREAT indicator of OL / DL play.......from cfbstats.com > rushing > situational
  *seems like I maybe posted this earlier?




     Offense                                        yds/rush

1st Quarter     13    125    489         3.91
2nd Quarter    13    143    506         3.54
3rd Quarter    13    101    438          4.34
4th Quarter    13    137    737           5.38

Defense

1st Quarter    13    131    627           4.79
2nd Quarter    13    133    572           4.30
3rd Quarter    13    138    589            4.27
4th Quarter    13    113    211              1.87


WEIRD

yep I thought OVER was a slam dunk......especially when dropped to 52......Wisky shoulda ROLLED those boys...........

Happy New Year Thorpe.......BOL in 2017.....................

holy crap I DID hate those evil basterds more



SO.....are we are in agreeance (sic) ......that the Brent / Irv Cross / Phyllis George / Jimmy the Greek....CBS pre-game was the greatest EVER?...................