BOWL GUIDE 2016-17

He's a man bro .....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoMmbUmKN0E

When you're 40, you can do anything... LOL

BA - good stuff.  Always check out your bowl thread every year.  Good luck rest of the season, and happy new year to everyone.

**correction Florida/Ohio State in the 07 champ game.

Thanks brother for all the time u spend and sharing info, always been a benefit to check your post. Have a healthy and prosperous New Year

YEP.......NO WAY IN HELLL YOU MAKE THAT PLAY...........
  *sure Meeshagan a tough / disciplined team....with a strong will to win....and could EASILY win a close / low scoring game...

BUT.....forget the INCREDIBLE hype for a minute.....
  *look at their schedule

ANY team with the ability.....to fog up a mirror....
  *gave them problems

Colorado?.....mighta lost had Sefo stayed in
Penn St?.....meaningless / wasn't playing well
Wisky?....W 14-7 at home
@ Mich St?.....W 32-23
@ Iowa?......L 14-13
Indiana?....W 20-10 (-25)
@ Ohio St?.....L 30-27

$    HUGE hopes all year......BUBBLE BURST LATE (11/26)
         KEY:     Harbaugh pushes them REALLY hard.....including now......FSU taking a more relaxed approach....fresher mentally / physically.....I think Michigan is burned out 


FSU?.....off back to back bowl embarrassments .....their season 'ended'.....EARLY on Sept 17.....has faced the MUCH tougher schedule.....and should be a BIITCH to beat here
  *QB edge + Cook.....should do it................

there he is......guessing you won a bit on your boys ............

good man JB.....thanks a lot..........................

FSU / Michigan.....

Think Michigan controls a low scoring 1H......their D especially strong EARLY (#1 1H).....+ FSU a slow starter (#60 1H) / strong finisher (#11)
  *small play on 1H under 26......looking to play FSU 2H.....and /or UNDER.....if 1H high scoring

Adding to my $ on FSU here.....1 unit at +8.....1 unit at +7'


Also looking at a 2H play on AF......3Q better if you can get it (SAla a strong 4Q team)......gotta think their WEAK run D wears down late tho..............

2nd half AF-7.5

I like it bookieassassin. Mad respect for you bro. Always a great contributor in here. Thanks for the insight. I love michigan through and through but noles +7 is my play as well. GL tonite amigo. 

Jimbo plays not to lose, it works for once   

was really hoping those derty Criminoles.....would be down at the half....being up BIG made me VERY nervous ha...............

LB -  yep hit that AF -7'....didn't like it a whole lot (missed 1H) so didn't post

so far....thru 12/30

Fav are 8-24 ATS....OU is 15-17
  *9X the dog has covered but not won SU

1H    FAV are 13-19 ATS / OU is 14-18
2H    FAV are 10-22 ATS / OU is 13-19

note:   only 4X has 1H winner NOT won game.....almost NEVER does a team POOF!....decide to show up at halftime / in-game
       *if tied the fav has won 3X....dog once
       *6 of last 8...team that covered the 1H did NOT cover the 2H
       *total usually 'flips' (66%)....only 11X has the 1H / 2H total been the same
            *1H under 18X....2H under 8X
            *1H over 14X.....2H over 3X
   

like


Houston  -3                L
UCF  -2'  2H               L
Memphis  +5              L
Old D -3' (in-game)   W
MTS  -7                     L
WF  +14                    W
Kansas St  +3           W
S Caro  +10'              W
Okie St  +3                W
N Caro  +3'                 W
Fla St  +8                    W
Clemson +3'
OU  *


smaller


N Mex  -1 / over 57                       L
UCF / ASU 1H under 25'              L      
Memphis / WKU 1H under  41     L
Old D / EM ovr 47' (ig)                 L
Navy  +  7'                                    W
La Tech / Navy  OVER 66           W
Vandy  +3                                     L
Minny  +7'                                     W
NW / Pitt 2H over 31'                    L
Indiana / Utah UNDER 54'          W
S Caro +2 2H                              W
Georgia P                                    W
NC / Tree  OVER   54                   L
Penn St  +7'
LSU  -3'
Kentucky  +3
WM / Wisky  OVER  54



small


NW  +3                               W
EWash 2H  -4'                    L
Toledo 2H  TT over 14       T
Wyo  TT over 10' 1H           L
Ohio / Troy 1H under 24'     L
Indiana  +7'                         W
Ark  +4 1H                           W
VT  -2'  3Q                            W
FSU / Mich 1H under 26       T
Wash +7' 1H

so far....thru 12/31

Fav are 11-25 ATS....OU is 15-21
  *9X the dog has covered but not won SU

1H    FAV are 16-20 ATS / OU is 14-22
2H    FAV are 11-25 ATS / OU is 13-23

note:   only 4X has 1H winner NOT won game.....almost NEVER does a team POOF!....decide to show up at halftime / in-game
            *if tied the fav has won 3X....dog once
            *6 of last 8...team that covered the 1H did NOT cover the 2H
            *total usually 'flips'....only 15X has the 1H / 2H total been the same
            *1H under 22X....2H under 12X
            *1H over 14X.....2H over 3X





adding OU-2'    ( -105 at Bookmaker)
  *it may continue to drop?.....but could also rise again?
it's still 3 most everywhere...looks like a good deal at -105 so I'll TAKE it

tomorrow .....

like OU + over in Wisky / WMich + Iowa at 3 (maybe)
  *made early small / 'value' play on Penn St....BUT...looks like a nice 'spot' for USC......so I'll look to buy back in-game if necessary

W Michigan?.....not sure how motivated Wisky is here....but I keep hearing about a solid to tough WMich D......HUH?
  *try OK to BAD...they played ONE decent O in Toledo and got LIT UP......here's the S&P rankings of O's they faced
126 > 123 > 114 > 108 > 99 > 89 > 74 > 69 > 67 > 63 > 48 > 18
  *note #48 was N Illinois...not a strong O then by any means

Their run D is #10 in the MAC......5.3/rush....170/g
  *DL ranks #117 in FEI rankings

I would imagine they do well for awhile at least....and stay close early.........plus I think the talented WM O moves it early vs a fairly disinterested Wisky D.....but on a fast surface / indoors we should see some points 2H.....as Wisky wears down the over-matched WM def front
  *so 1H under / maybe WM 1H.....with a look to Wisky and or OVER.......2H......not bad ideas

BOL boys.....back later...................



BIG GAME?.......I lean Clemson....but unlike many....no way I rush to make a play IMMEDIATELY.......after watching them dismantle OSU
  * I think I would either take Bama / or play Clemson ML.....could be wrong but seems like Clemson WINS....or gets killed here 

here's that WM run D....late in MAC play


                                     #       yds     per
                                                         rush      td
N Ill.                             42     251     5.98     2
@ Akron                      28     130     4.64     0
E Mich.                        30     142     4.73     3
@ Ball St.                    42     298     7.10     1
@ Kent St.                  34     220     6.47     2
Buffalo                         30     128     4.27     0
Toledo                         30     227     7.57     2
Ohio                            22       37      1.68     0
   

A very useful stat for half / quarter players.....
  * at cfbstats.com > rushing > situational


WM run D
                                     #        yds      per rush
1st Quarter         13    110    605       5.50
2nd Quarter        13    110    428       3.89
3rd Quarter         13    98    453         4.62
4th Quarter          13    99    480         4.85


Wisky run D

1st Quarter     13    91      374    4.11
2nd Quarter    13    104    414    3.98
3rd Quarter    13    102    274    2.69
4th Quarter    13       91    196    2.15

Auburn DOES appear.....when you break it down
  *to be the 'right' side......and my initial lean.....but this one is a Sooners call all the way.............

Only use of line movement?...... is knowing WHEN you will be able to get the number you want
  *not a terrible strategy if you don't know much....but if you base your bet on line movement > guessing the way others are betting? ............you'll NEVER figure this stuff out

Why is this one moving?
  *because the opener was WRONG.....I had it at 2

Games of low(er) betting volume......line is moved by the pros
  *games of HIGH(ER) volume.....line is moved by the joes as well.....if they bet enough...............

Does anyone know why Iowa Florida is not on the board ?

Quote Originally Posted by Sabanesque:

I Also like Oklahoma to prevail, but the line drop is significant. Opened at Okla -6, and now 5 dimes has OKla -1

You are probably correct about volume and how significant that is. In other words, the SEC public is now on board, and the Big 12 has really tanked so far. OKLa however is arguably the class of the conference, and Auburn is likely 4th best n the SEC.

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

so far....thru 12/31

Fav are 11-25 ATS....OU is 15-21
  *9X the dog has covered but not won SU

1H    FAV are 16-20 ATS / OU is 14-22
2H    FAV are 11-25 ATS / OU is 13-23

note:   only 4X has 1H winner NOT won game.....almost NEVER does a team POOF!....decide to show up at halftime / in-game
            *if tied the fav has won 3X....dog once
            *6 of last 8...team that covered the 1H did NOT cover the 2H
            *total usually 'flips'....only 15X has the 1H / 2H total been the same
            *1H under 22X....2H under 12X
            *1H over 14X.....2H over 3X





adding OU-2'    ( -105 at Bookmaker)
  *it may continue to drop?.....but could also rise again?
it's still 3 most everywhere...looks like a good deal at -105 so I'll TAKE it

tomorrow .....

like OU + over in Wisky / WMich + Iowa at 3 (maybe)
  *made early small / 'value' play on Penn St....BUT...looks like a nice 'spot' for USC......so I'll look to buy back in-game if necessary

W Michigan?.....not sure how motivated Wisky is here....but I keep hearing about a solid to tough WMich D......HUH?
  *try OK to BAD...they played ONE decent O in Toledo and got LIT UP......here's the S&P rankings of O's they faced
126 > 123 > 114 > 108 > 99 > 89 > 74 > 69 > 67 > 63 > 48 > 18
  *note #48 was N Illinois...not a strong O then by any means

Their run D is #10 in the MAC......5.3/rush....170/g
  *DL ranks #117 in FEI rankings

I would imagine they do well for awhile at least....and stay close early.........plus I think the talented WM O moves it early vs a fairly disinterested Wisky D.....but on a fast surface / indoors we should see some points 2H.....as Wisky wears down the over-matched WM def front
  *so 1H under / maybe WM 1H.....with a look to Wisky and or OVER.......2H......not bad ideas

BOL boys.....back later...................



BIG GAME?.......I lean Clemson....but unlike many....no way I rush to make a play IMMEDIATELY.......after watching them dismantle OSU
  * I think I would either take Bama / or play Clemson ML.....could be wrong but seems like Clemson WINS....or gets killed here