BOWL GUIDE 2016-17

once the bowls are announced.....the lines will be up before you know it....good news?.....really no hurry as the point-spread doesn't mean (as much) in bowl season >> just pick the SU winner and you will likely win the bet
  *most of this stuff is same as last years


RECENT BOWL HISTORY

 $$  all you have to do...is pick the WINNER....as the winner of the game also COVERS 90% of the time
 
Last 6 years.....
 *SU winner is 195-22 ATS

2015   fav 25-16 ATS....OU 26-15
  *dog won 12 games SU...SU winner 37-4 ATS

2014    fav 15-24 ATS...OU 23-15-1
      * dog won 21 games SU...SU winner 36-3 ATS

2013    fav 19-16 ATS...O/U 14-21
      * dog won 13 games SU...SU winner 31-4 ATS

2012    fav 21-14 ATS...O/U 15-20
      * dog won 10 games SU...SU winner 32-3 ATS
    
2011    fav 18-15 ATS...O/U 14-20
      * dog won 11 games SU...SU winner 30-4 ATS

2010    fav 20-13 ATS...O/U 17-16
      * dog won 10 games SU...SU winner 29-4 ATS 

*numbers from VI

IDEAS


1)  FOCUS

  *Don't think MOTIVATION / effort maybe.....think FOCUS > mostly in preparation
  *What was the goal when the season began?...don't think in terms of do they care / will they try hard
  *Is THIS where they wanted to be?....will they be FULLY focused?
     note: ignore what coaches say...as they love the bowls for the extra practices...where they can beat the helll outta the young guys (see who can play + if hurt have until fall to heal)
  *one of my favorites:  a (good) team EMBARRASSED in their bowl last year...esp. if a DOG this year
    maybe ?....hesitate to back a favorite that had a huge bowl win the previous year
       $  in general lean to dogs in the early games / favorites in later (KEY) games
 
2)  COACHES

  *some PREPARE much better than others...some know what buttons to push....and when to do so.
  *some simply do not like all the bowl BS...and treat bowls just like another spring
    eg. Bill Snyder has been the best HC to bet during the reg.season...but has only covered 5 of last 17 bowls   

3)  CONFERENCE STRENGTH / TRENDS

  *all that ridiculous conference talk?.....NOW is the time because in bowls it is actually useful    
  *you might have noticed EARLY conference trends often carry over to later games
           $  meaning if the SEC is killing everybody AGAIN....this usually continues

4)  COMMON OPPONENTS

  * compare their stats if they played the same team....and / or their performance vs similar teams in style of play or even power ratings    

5)  DISTRACTIONS

  *HC...and / or assistants leaving of course the main issue ...just RUMORED to leave can cause problems as well
  *beware the heavy favorite in a crap bowl with a lotta players thinking NFL ....they might just be trying to not get hurt
  *don't ASSume a veteran team will go all out in their final game
  *a team with too many 'injuries'...and suspensions is likely to not be focused
  *award winners...esp the Heisman have historically been distractions..not lately it seems

6)  INJURIES / SUSPENSIONS

  *probably overrated...maybe best to think of it this way...even if the effect on the games outcome is minimal...
     you still just want to know who is / not playing
  *keep in mind some coaches DO NOT DISCUSS / REVEAL injuries....so if practices are closed you have no idea if any key guys are hurt
  **best sources are local news...beat writers that give daily updates can be a great source to get a 'feel' for what's going on

7)   CROWD EDGE

   Local...or regional can make a huge difference...some teams affected more than others.
   A strong crowd edge has meant (about) a 58-60% ATS in the past
     NOTE:  as with coaching changes...(recently) this has not made much difference
     *hard to find out...but some teams with limited budgets...can't afford to fly and must BUS it yikes

7)  MATCH-UP ADVANTAGES

   *as always...a match-up edge is perhaps the most important factor in determining who wins/loses     what can team A do really well?....can team B stop this?...and vice-versa
    *here a strong DEFENSIVE team...facing a strong OFFENSIVE team usually has the edge...especially after a long lay-off
    ** if considering a heavy favorite (maybe with seemingly few weaknesses) does their opponent have the ability to DISRUPT...what they like to do?

STRATEGY


1)  JUST BET THE WINNER
 
*sure easier said than done...but the winner also covers in bowls about 90% of the time
    $$  last 6 years the SU winner is 195-22 ATS
  *don't forget this when doing your bowl pick-em contests....and especially when playing DOGS
   $$$ last 2 years.....the dog won OUTRIGHT 33X...   


2)  AVOID or FADE

    * average teams that FINISHED strong.....just the opposite of what most think...often these teams revert back to their old self after a long lay-off
    *TURNOVER prone teams..the lay-off ain't gonna fix it
    *NEVER play....a 'bubble-burst' team...just move on to the next game
    * the bowl virgin...their GOAL of just making a bowl have been met...the bowl is more of a REWARD / VACATION
    *cold weather teams....with no indoor facility...tough to stay in top condition if you can't work outside
       AND...warm weather teams...playing in cold weather
    *the interim HC with no shot at the job...where most coaches are leaving...the coaches are spending all their time looking for another job (if they wait it's too late)
    *the team with the extra long lay-off....vs the team with a shorter one....esp if the former is an offensive team....the latter defensive
    *SENIOR heavy teams off a disapponting year...they often are not looking for redemption...but to chase azz and get drunk...
    * the Heisman winner...all the BS takes a ton of time away from game prep....plus everyone telling him how awesome he is...while his opponents are sick of getting asked...how do you ever plan to stop this awesome individual?
    

3)   PLAY ON

  *** the 'good' team EMBARRASSED in last year's bowl...esp if returning to same bowl / close to home  
  ** the team that (seems to be)...on the RISE...meaning they really need a nice win to keep the MoMENTUM going  
  *the team with the better QB...
  *the team with the better D / special teams / ability to leverage the field in their favor
  *a good team that might have finished poorly.....again the opposite of what most think....the key is the strong team will emerge much improved...and now offers great value maybe
  *a senior heavy team....IF MOTIVATED...avoid if in a lesser bowl maybe....and/or in a party city...
  *the team with the interim HC...that the players want to get hired...if the guy has a real shot                 
  *the team from the tougher conference..that played a tougher schedule

4)  FOLLOW THE LINE MOVEMENT

      *unlike the reg season (usually)...play on instead of fade...
       BECAUSE...
       ANYTIME A LINE HAS MOVED MORE THAN 4 POINTS TOWARDS A GIVEN TEAM...THAT TEAM HAS COVERED 64% OF THE TIME
          *note:  for totals about 56%....since 1992

PLAY ON TEAMS ?

here's a few ideas....love the (good team / especially if  improving)......off a really bad bowl effort....
  *think about it.....family / fans / friends make this trip (maybe long / expensive).....just to see you get your azz kicked?

these lost LY.....so may come back with a bit extra TY ?
  *not comprehensive.....add some of your own

BYU.....T Hill's final game
Pitt....Narduzzi needs W
N Caro...lost L2
NCST....gotta have W > keep MO
A&M.....you kiddin'?
OU....whipped L2
PENN ST.....GOTTA KEEP MO going
Fla....can't lose here / after Bama likely destruction
NW....only ONE bowl W > need a W bad
Ark St...BA no bowl W's
Temple
UCLA.....REALLY NEED nice W
Indiana....broke bowl cherry LY > now W with new coach ?
Tulsa
AForce
COL ST
Fla St
Okie St
Kan State....Snyder terrible bowl coach somehow
 Miami....new HC needs W
Va Tech.....ditto
USC.....ditto
Memphis.....ditto


OTHERS.....

teams improving....that NEED to keep MO going......a bowl loss might be a serious setback ?
  *or off disappointing season....maybe better than they appeared
  *maybe new coach / one under heavy fire (SUMLIN / Kelly maybe if not gone already ha)

Colorado...Kentucky......Col St....MIAMI.....LSU......TREE.....S Caro......WVirg......Terps......VANDY...........HOKIES
  *some arguably of course.....bowl loss wouldn't be crushing to VT....but a nice bowl W would be a great send off into a crucial off-season....what if Vandy got embarrassed in a bowl?....after beating Ole Miss AND Tennessee?......terrible

list of teams that have done well
  *last 10 years or so

                                    ATS        %          MOV    ATS +/-

TREE                            6-1-0     85.7%     10.9     +8.0
Boise State                    6-3-0    66.7%    11.2    +7.5
Ohio State                     6-3-0    66.7%    3.3    +5.8
Oregon                          6-3-0    66.7%    10.7    +5.5
Georgia                         6-3-0    66.7%    11.0    +3.8
Alabama                        6-4-0    60.0%    12.1    +4.4
Clemson                        6 -4-0    60.0%    1.3    +1.9
Marshall                         5-0-0    100.0%    12.0    +10.7
Tulsa                              5-1-0    83.3%    20.5    +24.3
Rutgers                           5-1-1    83.3%    9.4    +9.6
Mississippi                      5-1-0    83.3%    7.5    +5.6
Utah                               5-2-0    71.4%    7.0    +9.1
Nebraska                       5-3-0    62.5%    0.6    +3.4
Navy                                 5-3-0    62.5%    -1.4    +2.2
Florida                             5-3-0    62.5%    1.9    -4.8
Florida St                        5-4-0    55.6%    2.0    -0.7
Michigan St                   5-4-0    55.6%    -10.7    -4.7
LA Tech                          4-0-0    100.0%    9.0    +8.9
LA Lafayette                   4-0-0    100.0%    6.8    +7.2
Auburn                           4-2-0    66.7%    6.7    +5.3
Louisville                        4-2-0    66.7%    2.7    +4.7
Washington                   4-2-0    66.7%    3.2    +4.1
Northwestern                4-2-0    66.7%    -8.8    -0.8
Miss State                       4-3-0    57.1%    11.7    +8.3
Missouri                        4-3-0    57.1%    8.0    +3.4
Air Force                       4-3-0    57.1%    -0.4    +2.9
USC                                4-3-0    57.1%    9.9    +2.4
Iowa                               4-3-0    57.1%    -5.1    0.0
VA Tech                        4-3-2    57.1%    -0.7    -0.5
UCLA                           4-3-0    57.1%    0.9    -0.6
Houston                       4-3-0    57.1%    -2.0    -1.5

TEAMS to FADE?

 *disappointing season....now one more game.....holy crap!
even more so if off huge W last year.....Louisville....Tenn....Michigan

TEXAS?...(5-7 should qualify)......may not take bid ?
BAYLOR !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TENN
LOUISVILLE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wazzu .....if favorite fade for sure
Michigan ????......tough call / match-up depending

*  bowl virgin.....or no bowl in awhile
often treated as a vacation only / REWARD for years of abuse.....getting there is all that matters
 
E Michigan....Old D....UTSA....Idaho...Miami, O...


Will HC be gone ???

W Michigan.....PJ is gone / but if Cotton Bowl I'm guessing he still coaches ?
N Carolina....Fedora may stay
WKU....Brohm should be gone
USF...Willie BETTER be gone.....I would LOVE to see BAYLOR hire this guy...check him out if not familiar
Boise....Harsin might get a great job
Temple....that Matt Rhule can coach
Okie State....Gundy pisses T Boone off /  vice versa...he might leave for right job
App St.....Satterfield great coach
Troy.....Neil Brown did a hellluva job
Tulsa....Briles' guy should go somewhere?
Ark St....that BA keeps getting mentioned ....okey dokey
  *several more I'm sure......don't forget KEY assistants that might go.....Kiffin will get a job somewhere....but I would think he would stay for title game

teams that have stunk in the past......



                       ATS          %        MOV      ATS +/-        

TX El Paso      0-2-0    0.0%    -21.5    -11.2
Ball State         0-4-0    0.0%    -19.5    -16.2
UNLV               0-1-0    0.0%    -22.0    -16.5
Buffalo             0-2-0    0.0%    -21.5    -18.5
Fresno St         0-6-0    0.0%    -15.0    -22.7
Hawaii               0-3-0    0.0%    -28.7    -28.2
LA Monroe       0-1-0    0.0%    -31.0    -37.5
Kansas St        1-5-0    16.7%    -7.2    -3.2
Boston Col       1-5-0    16.7%    -6.8    -5.2
Miami (FL)       1-5-0    16.7%    -10.8    -9.5
Bowling Grn     1-4-1    20.0%    -15.8    -16.8
California          1-3-0    25.0%    2.2    -2.5
Middle Tenn      1-3-0    25.0%    -9.0    -6.0
W Michigan       1-3-0    25.0%    -7.2    -7.8
Memphis           1-3-0    25.0%    -14.5    -10.9
W Virginia         2-6-0    25.0%    -0.1    -1.1
N Illinois            2-6-0    25.0%    -11.9    -6.9
Cincinnati          2-6-0    25.0%    -10.2    -11.1
Texas Tech        2-5-0    28.6%    -0.7    -3.0
GA Tech            2-5-0    28.6%    -5.8    -3.9
Arizona             2-5-0    28.6%    -3.6    -6.9
Nevada             2-5-1    28.6%    -9.2    -9.1
W Kentucky     1-2-0    33.3%    2.7    -1.5
Temple             1-2-0    33.3%    -0.7    -2.2
Iowa State        1-2-0    33.3%    -9.0    -7.8
Purdue             1-2-0    33.3%    -12.0    -9.3
Minnesota        2-4-0    33.3%    -6.3    -4.1
Arizona St        2-4-0    33.3%    -4.3    -7.4
Oklahoma        3-6-0    33.3%    -5.4    -8.9
TX Christian    3-5-0    37.5%    6.8    +3.6
Oklahoma St    3-5-0    37.5%    3.8    +0.8
Texas A&M      3-5-0    37.5%    -0.4    -1.2
Pittsburgh       3-5-0    37.5%    -5.1    -5.0
Maryland         2-3-0    40.0%    -0.8    +2.4
Connecticut     2-3-0    40.0%    -3.4    +0.1
S Mississippi    2-3-1    40.0%    -4.3    -1.9
Arkansas St    2-3-0    40.0%    -9.8    -8.4
Notre Dame    3-4-0    42.9%    1.7    +3.4
Penn State     3-4-0    42.9%    -5.7    -1.6
Texas              3-4-0    42.9%    -3.9    -1.7
S Carolina       3-4-0    42.9%    -1.1    -2.0
E Carolina      3-4-0    42.9%    -5.3    -2.3
N Carolina      3-4-0    42.9%    -3.6    -3.3
LSU                 4-5-0    44.4%    8.3    +5.1
BYU               4-5-0    44.4%    3.8    +3.7
Wisconsin       4-5-0    44.4%    -5.2    -1.6

THX  BA....Enjoyed learning the  "Art" of handicapping from your write ups. BOL in bowl season.

Thanks for the write ups

Thanks as always.  

Super info...muchas gracias.

RT2

Love it!   

I would give PJ a good chance to coach the Bowl.  

 Great info 

Bookie that 17 degree weather in wyoming keeping you on sdsu tonight? wondering if i should put the same amount on that teaser as i put on washington and west virginia?

Thank You Bookie...super info...much appreciated

Great work as always BA

my man you are the greatest. 

Thoughts on the over 80 Western kentucky?

Good stuff as always..Thanks!

sorry DB.......wrong thread pal........................



















here's what I think....no opinion on the rest

W Vag......should kick the living crap outta Baylor......

Kan State......should play the helll outta TCU.....should cover and / or win SU

Troy should win.... and probably cover

Ark St should roll....?

La Tech should stay within what 11' now wtf......but done little work on that one....have no idea why it's so high.....HC Brohm is likely going to Purdue or somewhere?.....players know it

I lean....Hokies to play Clemson tough.....reckon SDSU wins.....(check out that Wyoming run D yikes)

Temple / Navy could go either way....I lean only.....Owls to win / Navy D is BAD......................

Thanks boys.....kind words much appreciated

All the best today and thru bowl season.................

Somebody just asked for a bowl system betting guide.... thought I'd bump this thread.

YOU.....are damm lucky.....that I'm not a horse.....dressed up like a Mexican bandit.....carrying a cheap acoustic guitar......I would smash your azz over the head with it.........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=010aaw1Ajo0

Maybe make a list YOURSELF?.........................

BOL in the bowls man.................