BOWL GUIDE 2016-17

BA - You got to be due for a good run with how much time/research you put in this. Vandy was another L, but looking for you to turn it around for rest of bowl season. 

LOVE YA BROTHER 

Please message me, if you would like to work as part of a group, so we can increase the odds of putting back to back winning weeks.  Hopefully we can increase profits.

AGAIN...............................

Your wins / losses.....in wagering and LIFE......don't come in any NEAT / easy to handle order......99.95% of folks.....can't begin to understand it ......or deal with it ...........therefore FAIL.....because 100% of us will hit UGLY streaks
   *this is PRECISELY what builds those massive hotels in Vegas......human weakness

  ***** this is a COMMON characteristic of very high achievers BTW....including Billy Walters.....who at one point couldn't pick winners to save his life........

eg.      (no offense to anyone BTW).....
      *but there are a grand total of TWO guys here that understand this.....myself and my boi Nostradamus.....> I'm sure there's somebody there I'm not aware of......would say Train but don't see his bowl stuff

OTHERS?......getting in chick-like spats > leaving Covers / making threats......answering every P-U-S-S  that rips them (but yet post few/no plays themselves).............

ME?.....I think it's funny.......yes I prefer to win EVERY game (mostly > like last bowl season)
  *BAD SHIIT happens?........laugh at it > then deal with it.....have a few drinks to help you out ha

After 15+ years of posting picks here and other spots.....
  *hitting around 57% of about 2500 picks.....with one losing year (2007)......60%+ the last 250 or so..........POOF!......I don't know WTF I'm doing?...............


KEY?......if you continue to grind > follow your (proven) plan.....AND don't bet more than you should ( no more than 1-2% of your roll).......you will ALWAYS be OK..............
  *but you don't........you bet MORE.....or stop betting.....because you are TOO WEAK............to deal with it

BOWLS?......are tough anyway.....and really are just like a week during the regular season anyway (40 or so games).......so a hot or cold streak can last the whole time.......
       *so should be viewed as an EXTENSION of the regular season....or maybe a continuation of last year's bowls ......when evaluating yourself

SO...................my recommendation.......................
  *IF you must.......would be to fade me the rest of the way...............
    I've got almost all dogs.....seems likely that the dog trend turns around at some point

Back soon with a few more losers ha......BOL boys........

Great response bookie. You are a true capper.

BTW.......appreciate the kind words boys..............

Great read my friend!  Couldn't agree more with all of your points and as mentioned back on the first page, I have followed every play and will continue to do so.  I realize it may not all come back this bowl season but I also know where things will end up over time.  I hate to use the word "investment" but with your success, I truly look at this as a long term investment. Are there risks? Sure there are.  But history tells me my money has a great chance of multiplying by sticking to the BA strategy.  Hopefully the dogs start barking!

shouldn't say this......VERY few are aware......so pointless

It's a generational thing to a degree.....

I'm a tail end baby boomer (born 1960)....my parents/ grandparents taught AND showed me that life kicks you in the teeth CONSTANTLY
  *so you PREPARE ......and DEAL with it

I've noticed..................
  *parents these days prefer to simply AVOID (any) negative stuff...so most folks are CRUSHED when they stumble a bit......

LESSON 'taught'......... you will be REWARDED.....regardless if you put forth any effort / do any work WTF............
     *  WHY?......because you DESERVE it...............


good man Leroy......BOL...............



hmm.......looks like Minny kicked Wazzu's azz.................

Born in 62. Sooo tired of gettin' kicked in the teeth. but you gotta keep fightin'. Not keeping score in games? what kind of panzy crap is that? What has the world come to?

its not just boomers sick of weak whiners. Trust me, you only see the whiny social justice warriors on tv, but most of America is firmly against whiny pussies

I'm much younger than you guys btw

easiest play of the season so far.

adding NW / Pitt 2H over 31'
  *smaller play (BetOnline)



others....

lean only Miami / looks like a toss-up....total looks right

played the UNDER on Utes/Indy.....and very small on Indiana at 7'

played Kan St +3....and very small play on ML as well.....

Awesome day today with your NW pick posted earlier, K State & Under. Thanks! 

That's the BA we are used to!  Congrats on a nice little run and hope it keeps going for you.

... and just like that the tide has turned and you're heating up heading into tomorrow, where more big dogs are on the horizon

so far....thru 12/28

Fav are 5-19 ATS....OU is 10-14
  *7X the dog has covered but not won SU

1H    FAV are 9-15 ATS / OU is 10-14
2H    FAV are 6-18 ATS / OU is 9-15

note:   only twice has 1H winner NOT won game.....almost NEVER does a team POOF!....decide to show up at halftime / in-game
            *if tied the fav has won 2X....dog once
            * 15X the 1H winner ATS.....has covered the 2H (63%)
            *total usually 'flips'....only 9X has the 1H / 2H total been the same
            *1H under 14X....2H under 7X
            *1H over 10X.....2H over 2X
   

added a few.....in bold.....will play OU when it drops


like

Houston  -3                L
UCF  -2'  2H               L
Memphis  +5              L
Old D -3' (in-game)    W
MTS  -7                        L
WF  +14                       W
Kansas St  +3              W
S Caro  +10'
Fla St  +8
Clemson +3'
N Caro  +3'
Okie St  +3
OU  *


smaller

N Mex  -1 / over 57                       L
UCF / ASU 1H under 25'             L      
Memphis / WKU 1H under  41     L
Old D / EM ovr 47' (ig)                 L
Navy  +7'                                     W
La Tech / Navy  OVER 66           W
Vandy  +3                                     L
Minny  +7'                                    W
NW / Pitt 2H over 31'                    L
Indiana / Utah UNDER 54'           W
Penn St  +7'
LSU  -3'
Kentucky  +3
Georgia P
NC / Tree  OVER   54
WM / Wisky  OVER  54


small

NW  +3                           W
EWash 2H  -4'                  L
Toledo 2H  TT over 14    T
Wyo  TT over 10' 1H        L
Ohio / Troy 1H under 24'  L
Indiana  +7'                       W
Wash +7' 1H
Ark  +4 1H

Appreciate it boys........but it makes no difference
  *although I will be slightly annoyed if S Carolina (my top bowl play)......doesn't work

Today have ......

S Carolina +10' for 2.5 units....strong lean under
Okie St +3 one unit.....total about right

Hogs / Hokies?
 *way too much up/down for BOTH teams to make any sort of prediction as to what team will show up here

numbers away from the spread:

VT -      +3  +23   +4   -24   -8  -1/2   +15   -35   +31   +23   +43   -10   -9

UA-       -4   +17   -21   +25   -43   +11   -5   -9   -15   +9   +12   -22

RIDICULOUS...................esp VT


Hogs......
  *  O is MUCH better 1H......D slightly worse 2H.....have been strong starters on the road / weak finishers......they don't run well consistently.....and are HORRIFIC (#128) at stopping the run (6.2/rush).....strength is a very efficient passing game....on PD (passing downs)
  *D is probably not as bad as it looks (faced tough O's).....really weak tho vs the big play

Hokies.....
  *O is MUCH better 2H.....D about same
they can't run well at all.....(#95).....but not bad on PD (#11)...note Hogs D #116 on PD.... Hogs D weak (#93) vs efficient passing attacks like the Hokies  (#12)
  *D matches up well vs Arkansas.....not great vs the run (#45) but strong vs efficient passing attacks (#13) like Ark.....and tough on passing downs (#5)

I kinda lean Hokies here / strong lean OVER.....Hogs are clearly the 'obvious' choice you bet......getting a FAT 7
  *I'll play Arkansas 1H small.....look for a 2H play on VT if set up ......and / or OVER..................

adding a bit to my SC play...

*shop around for 2H lines >

SC +2 2H at 5Dimes.....smaller play

I think their interest in winning the game....will be stronger than USF's will to extend the margin......SC should move the ball (av 6.9 /play / USF 6.8/play )............

I made a small chicken wing bet on SC +1 for the second half. Not very confident in it. But I'm not confident in USF's defense either. 

Flowers.....might be good enough to screw everything up....but the real problem is the SCaro O.....#117......but they're doing fine vs that UGLY USF D  (#100)....think it'll be OK

After originally thinking Auburn.....strongly leaning Sooners....hoping somebody talks me out of it............

I'm still undecided on the OU game. I think it will be one of the better games of the bowl season. My only worry with OU is I'm afraid Auburn will be able to run on OU's D like WV did.