Last's Non-Conf Picks

Likely will follow the Morehead game with Auburn ....if it looks bleak and go for all 4 Units unless I can get something in the data with so many games....still searching but will save for tomorrow

Heading to bed

Other plays Saturday;

Maryland -13 x HALF U

-have a look at Syracuse defense stats and realize, Maryland right away is one of those 5+ points home teams automatically and they statistically are far superior to Syracuse

-I think this line is too low by 3-4 pts most likely as, Maryland beat Ohio St on this court by 24 pts  and we know Syracuse have difficulty with teams that can control them and score well getting beat by 26 to Tennessee who Maryland patterns its style of play to, in the BIG10

Indiana -14.5 x HALF U 

-should have no issue at home vs a 170+ team that has not played a lot of road games and does not have any impressive close games to its resume except for an early stint on the west coast 

-Indiana home court is another that is a great home court on a Saturday

Looking at more as I go....

Lets go Terrapins!!!

All my picks today are just going to use the best double correlations or extreme fade sides:

Next plays 1 pm:

Robert Morris -8 x HALF U 

LIU +5.5 x HALF U

Loyola MD x HALF U 

....late add > Pitt -16.5 x HALF U

I have to ask.....

Does that include your family, because technically, its an organization of people living together through blood or marital/non-marital status

Thanks bro for the luck 

2 pm games:

James Madison -1 x HALF U

Florida St  -1 x HALF U

.....might have more....still capping last minutes here....

230 pm game:

UNDER Arkansas 159.5 x HALF U

3 pm games:

Gardiner Webb +10.5 x HALF U

Shit...forgot to send this about an hour ago....won't count this one in my total

Having some fun today and testing my system on VOLUME plays....looking for double correlation to play them:

Maryland -13 x HALF U 

Indiana -14.5 x HALF U   NO

Next plays 1 pm:

Robert Morris -8 x HALF U  

LIU +5.5 x HALF U      

Loyola MD x HALF U   NO

 ....late add > Pitt -16.5 x HALF U  

2 pm games:

 James Madison -1 x HALF U  NO

Florida St  -1 x HALF U   NOT LIKELY

230 pm game:

UNDER Arkansas 159.5 x HALF U   no chance....

3 pm games:

 Gardiner Webb +10.5 x HALF U   (Shit...forgot to send this about an hour ago....won't count this one in my total)

Volume is not going to work.....have to be even more selective like I have

Play #2 Double Up 2U > Morehead -4   .....still undefeated on my Double Up since Nov 30 and it has never gone to the 3rd leg, but know that it will and I will lose a 7 UNIT streak 

I did a lot of plays to demonstrate that even though I have stats to correlate, it is still a process of selection and sifting and I never bothered to sift as well as I could have on those other 9 plays I did today for a HALF U each....went 4 - 5 

Today = 5 - 5 ATS/Totals (+1.5 Units)

Week = 12 - 8 (+4 Units)

Season = 45- 28  (+16 Units = +$1920)

Might make a later play .....but I am now just about finished handicapping for Mohawk Raceway Harness betting for Saturday night and going to post my plays and thoughts for the early PICK5 in my Harness racing thread

I am dead even on my exotics plays (up almost $2K on ATS/Totals) so its time to make a mark on a good spot:

Kennesaw beat Rutgers at home outright and Towson on a neutral court.....home team cannot boast wins vs top 50 or 150th ranked teams

Risk $65 to win $100 profit...ML Kennesaw

Sunday: Double Day on some

Play #1 - Alabama Under 154 x 1U < lowest total they have posted all year BUT they are playing a good strong defensive team who also know how to finish around the basket deep in the clock and they will bring out Alabama's good defensive side which you can see in their stats, but since they play so many good offensive teams, they tend to want to strike back early in the clock or get an offensive rebound..... Alabama will be content with a 75 - 80 pt max win while Kent St should score 65 -70

Note: Auburn - Kent St total was posted @148 and it went UNDER comfortably!

Double Up Play #1 - Bryant +4 x 1U

-good offensive team that knows and can play defense....they shoot the ball well and I don't see the same with Towson who are traditionally a good home team but on a long losing streak and if they do win here, it will be a tight ball game

Got the first line 1 hour ago....just played the 2nd (Double Up)

Looking for more plays....

2 pm games:

Detroit +30 x HALF U

Under148 Detroit x HALF U

TCU -10.5 x HALF U

...strong lean to UNDER Virginia 119.5 ....going to play with some parlays of NFL and soccer

Results today:

Play #1 - Alabama Under 154 x 1U   

Double Up Play #1 - Bryant +4 x 1U  << wow, what a frustrating game....took the lead by 8 pts with 8 minutes to go and I lost by 5  .........will look for the 'next one' worth 2U and might have something in a late game....looking into it now

Detroit +30 x HALF U      

Under148 Detroit x HALF U     

TCU -10.5 x HALF U    

Sunday =  4 - 1   (+1.5 Units)

Week  = 16 - 9    (+5.5 Units) - $65 exotic bets 

Season = 49 - 29  Sides/Totals ( +17.5 Units) - $78 exotics

Started the NCAAB King of Covers NCAAB contest about 10 days ago and already in the top 100 BUT, I am being very selective as I go. That is how you make the top 10. I have given the others a head start  and lets see where I end up. The work I am putting in is really paying off now

Calling it a day.....back atch ya tomorrow

Started the NCAAB King of NCAAB 4 days now: 

-not too shabby so far.... ranked 58 out of 2291    (27 - 13 after 4 days and will end up either 28-14 or 27 - 15 after today)

Double Up Play #2 - Tennessee Under 142 x 2U

 -look at how Tenn controls their opponent at home on the defensive side....and they are the #1 defense in the country

-Only major threat I see with MTSU is their offensive rebounding and Tenn will take pride in blocking out MTSU who will feel deflated from not getting too many buckets inside and have a poor scoring game and I am predicting UNDER 60 pts for them

-its risky playing UNDERS at xmas but I see a chance here....who knows what is in the players heads at this time with focus?

Teasers 5 pt and $40 each and payback $45 profit:  

KEY: Charleston +6.5 with Under Tenn 149.5 << not sure why this total is climbing! 

with:

1. N. Dakota St -4.5

2. Beavers -4.5

3. Under Beavers 136.5

4. Under Washington 149.5

5. Nebraska -3.5

Also:

Over Tennessee 139.5 with Charleston +6.5 with N.Dakota Over 133.5 

Down $78 overall in exotics....lets get that turned to positive by spending $240 tonight 

Results tonight: 

Double Up Play #2 - Tennessee Under 142 x 2U  ... I  go to to 4 UNITS now so will do as I always do and be selective....Tenn did not care about defense and that is the first time. Every year they disappoint me at least once or twice this way and too bad I caught it

Teasers 5 pt and $40 each and payback $45 profit:  

KEY: Charleston +6.5 with Under Tenn 149.5 << not sure why this total is climbing! 

with:

1. N. Dakota St -4.5   

2. Beavers -4.5   

3. Under Beavers 136.5  NO

4. Under Washington 149.5

5. Nebraska -3.5

Also:

Over Tennessee 139.5 with Charleston +6.5 with N.Dakota Over 133.5  

Spent $240 > 3 - 1 > returned $255 so far with two open plays and each win brings back $85 into my account....not bad

Exotic account balance = -$63 lower but again, this should bring this $1000 account back up over $1000 after the games late here

Ended up adding another $170 back to my exotic bets account....now positive $107 balance

Went 5 - 1 on Teasers tonight but -2 UNITS on Sides 

Saturday: DOUBLE UP LAST LEG > I lose, I don't double up again! Just suck up the heavy loss

Play #3 -DOUBLE UP Columbia -10 x 4U

Saturday: DOUBLE UP LAST LEG > I lose, I don't double up again! Just suck up the heavy loss

Play #3  Columbia -10 x 1U  << CANCELLED this play and made it 1U instead

Double UP PLay #3 = Elon -5 x 4U 

Well, was down by 9 at the half and won by 13 pts with my original 4U play that I cut back....what I wrote/changed

Saturday: DOUBLE UP LAST LEG > I lose, I don't double up again! Just suck up the heavy loss

Play #3  Columbia -10 x 4U  << CANCELLED this play and made it 1U instead  

Double UP PLay #3 = Elon -5 x 4U << coming up at 7 pm

My record in King of Covers:

7 - 3 and likely soon to go 8-3 today with one late game 

Completed Picks:

12/28/2024 7-3-0 70.00% +1850 Detail

Rank:

34th

Net Units:

+8150  Overall: 35-17-0

Last 20:   14-6-0

WLT Pct Units Rank

ATS Picks 28-13-0 68.29% +6850 50 of 2310

O/U Picks 7-4-0           63.64%           +1300 225 of 2310

Got the ELON final DOUBLE UP pick for 4 Units   > 2 - 0 ATS on Sides today (+5 Units)

Week:

2 - 1 ATS so far Sides/Totals (+3 Units)

Exotic bets > made some good money on some teasers > account now at +$107

Season: 

47 - 29  (+20.5 Units main account ) +$107 exotic plays account

-one more day on the week....just wrapped up my horse betting thread and not betting on flimsy bowls...waiting for big games but in the meantime, looking at tomorrow's matchups

Double Up Play #1 for today - Hofstra -1.5 x 1U

-they statistically dominate Quinn who are also a poor foul line team

IPFW -8.5 x HALF U 

-they have great stats and control GB when they play....who have only 2 wins on the season

-this one lined up well with the correlation with ranking and with spread success for this line 

Looking at some more lines ...letting them brew

-eyeing Penn St., NW St, Northeastern, Albany, Niagara (man this line has gone up fast), Morgan St., Chicago St., Drake , South Dakota St, NJJT, Wright St., Missouri St, Winthrop, UT Arlington, Toledo, Campbell and finally W.Kentucky

Lots of games to look at matchups and will whittle down some others for the DOUBLE UP just in case Hofstra does not fire today