Saturday:
Play #1 - Murray St +5.5 x HALF U
-in almost every match and they have strong stats on both sides of the ball.... WKY covering well ATS but they are facing a gritty team who can play from behind or on the lead with a strong defense with Murray St.
-I see this as a comfortable win or last shot by either team trying to tie or make it within 1 pt with a 3 pointer
Play #2 - Xavier +8 x 1U
- I get that Cincy with the higher rank is favorite and probably a line of -4 or -4.5 is appropriate, but not 7.5 pts when Xavier dominates this matchup almost every year ....dominant in winning but games are 8 pts or less usually for the winner which tends to be Xavier
........still looking for my DOUBLE UP play (want a VEGAS line mistake and not finding one to align with my data well yet as I cap Saturday games to 230pm starts)
Glad I waited on these lines and did not send them after 1am last night 
...they brewed into more points
Looking at 3 pm games soon
Play #3 - DOUBLE UP PLAY 2U to cover loss last night > Oregon St -2 << alternative line for less payout
- I can see this game finishing on the line with both teams excellent in all categories but give the edge to the BEAVERS defense and ability to prevent the other team getting to the line.....and will have home refs to help them
BEAVERS are one of my favorite teams to back at home vs any team almost and they almost upset a Top 10 team and rival at home in OREGON ....lead the whole way, but Ducks would have more 4-5 star players to press on them when the chips are down vs UCIRVINE who has a nice team with nice stats, but not in the Oregon Ducks level
-what is holding this spread down is UCIRVINE proving they can beat most teams and that win over N.Iowa by 20 on the road stands out in another tough building but this Oregon St team is tough vs a better ranked team
This one will be a beauty and I am hanging my hat on the BEAVERS home play
13 - 5 ATS/Sides the last little while ....being patient and just using data plays since I put so much time into recording....10's of hours so far. I am glad I waited and now am benefitting.
Saturday: Play #1 - Murray St +5.5 x HALF U 
-in almost every match and they have strong stats on both sides of the ball.... WKY covering well ATS but they are facing a gritty team who can play from behind or on the lead with a strong defense with Murray St.
-I see this as a comfortable win or last shot by either team trying to tie or make it within 1 pt with a 3 pointer
Play #2 - Xavier +8 x 1U 
Coming up .....
Play #3 - DOUBLE UP PLAY 2U to cover loss last night > Oregon St -2 << alternative line for less payout
Lets see what happens in this one....and might put another line in the water later. I am focusing on capping Mohawk and Meadowlands standardbred racing right now instead. I am doing horses still 1-2x per week and might fire up my Harness Racing thread again soon.....
Play #3 - DOUBLE UP PLAY 2U to cover loss last night > Oregon St -2
14 - 5 ATS/Totals last while and padding profits finally....over 50% on the year and want to keep going and stick to plan. Use Rank/spread correlation charts that I compile and then check stats and who each team played
Another play that checks all the boxes for me with my charts is:
Play #4 tonight - Oklahoma -4.5 x HALF U
-teams ranked 21-40 (Oklahoma) are 15 - 8 ATS vs a team ranked 66 - 90 (Oklahoma 90th)
-this is a neutral site game so usually the better shooting club shines and thats Okla.....
-rivalry game and some people may be siding with home dog thinking its good to have +5 pts like it was most of the day
Went through all later games after this and only like St. Marys on a neutral court but their rank does not do well with this low of a spread 1 - 4 ATS for Top 20 teams as favorites with a spread this low
Thread Record:
November
11- 10 - 1 ATS/SIDES +0.5 up to Nov 30th / down $189 in exotic bets
Nov 30 - Now
Regular/Teasers/Double Up betting (bet 1, 2 , 3 plays to get one win....if I lose 3 in a row, I drop 7 UNITS)
18 -10 (+7.5 ) after FRIDAY and +$128 in exotic bets since Nov 30
Saturday (today) = 4 - 0 (+4 Units) >> Oklahoma a runaway winner now up almost 25 pts last I looked
Nov 30 + December record now = 22 - 10 (+11.5 Units)
THREAD RECORD NOW: 33 - 20 - 1 (+12 Units / -$60+ on exotics)
I won't make a bet if my rank vs rank or rank vs spread correlation chart does not make sense and give me pause to look closer at the games. I used to think that I could find it just comparing statistics but no longer.....ITS COMBING BOTH >> proper charting and looking at stats to compare teams with the spread to cut down my choices
Starting to look at Sunday games after I chart todays into my correlation....
Looking hard at 4 lines:
Alabama AM @ Chattanooga
Stonehill @ Boston College
Denver @ Cal Fullerton << only fave I like so far without diving in too hard since I know that Denver is strong at home and when they go on the road with this team, not so much...CF has had a brutal schedule if I recall so might just make a play on them here to cover this but still checking some things
San Fran @ Loy-Chicago << strong home doggie traditionally vs a weaker road team traditionally who is also strong at home but on the road this time....this angle works for me when I take the points or even go ML... still looking and watching line
Sunday Plays: - no DOUBLE UP today that I can get comfortable with!
Play #1 - Vermont/Colgate UNDER 128.5 x HALF U
-feel bet and matchup grinder is my thinking when I look at their shooting and defensive stats....style of play when they face a similar type of team
Play #2 - IPFW/EMU OVER 147 x HALF U
-take a look at the offensive stats of IPFW ...very impressive and they love scoring on the road it looks like
-EMU just starting their home games and I see them wanting to score if you look at the Detroit matchup....in fact, both teams when facing Detroit went OVER this number so I am thinking that IPFW will push the pace, EMU will respond accordingly with the home crowd
Still kicking some tires....back with more
Sunday Plays: - no DOUBLE UP today
The beat goes on....
Play #1 - Vermont/Colgate UNDER 128.5 x HALF U
Play #2 - IPFW/EMU OVER 147 x HALF U
2 - 0 to start the week.... only honing in on one game and gonna wait till about 10-15 min before most likely or just not post
Watching Lions - BIlls ...gonna be an epic game to watch so working on tomorrow during commercials and halftime
Play #3 - Loyola Chicago +4 x HALF U and ml HALF U (pays 2.6) .....separate plays....one SIDE and the other is exotic category
- we will find out how good San Fran is on the road playing a tough and well coached LC team who has played only a couple of upper teams but their stats and control of their games is excellent
-San Fran failed their two assignments on a neutral court vs strong teams
-feel this is a spot to take a good, well disciplined dog
Tuesday: DOUBLE Play #1 - TCU -12.5 x 1U
-SAB played today
-when you play back to back games and vs a strong defender, you take the defensive team for sure, especially if they are overall and excellent team and can hit the 3pt....TCU likes shooting 3 pt and SAB is ranked 353st vs 3 pt
- even if SAB keeps this close, I can see TCU running and shooting them out of the gym in the second half
- I could be wrong, but willing to make this the start of a D-UP string
-besides, teams ranked 65 - 90th are 15 - 7 ATS vs teams ranked 151 - 190th which is where SAB sits
- did I mention TCU is traditionally deadly at home court?
Tuesday lines on watch for late movement before setting a bet:
SE Louisiana @ Grambling -1.5
Have an excellent FADE the line play....double fade the correlation and am 3-1 on these when I find them.....will not give it away until I think the line is ripest because I think I can get more points over night and into tomorrow
Grand Canyon @ Lou Tech
Cal Baptist @ MTSU
Now have another 2nd double FADE the line play.....again....watching the line brew
SF is legit....and LOYCHIC with shooting issues
Play #3 - Loyola Chicago +4 x HALF U and ml HALF U (pays 2.6) .....separate plays....one SIDE and the other is exotic category 
2 - 1 ATS/SIDES today and -$60 on exotics
Tuesday: DOUBLE Play #1 - TCU -12.5 x 1U 
Some strong lines tomorrow and looking into quite a few......
Double Up Play #2 x 2U - Western Illinois -2
-Tenn Tech does not rebound and WI dominates on the boards
- both teams like shooting the 3 ball.... WI plays better dee against it and have the shooting spots for players on their home court
-superior stats by WI ....still a risk if TT is hitting shots
-rank correlation and spread are at very positive numbers in this matchup so I will go with it
Also playing (non D-UP plays that correlate well):
Ohio St -21 over Valpo x HALF U....if Valpo is losing by 20 to teams ranked 40-60 positions above Ohio St, on a dominant home team court they could get blown away here in Columbus by 30 with a pissed off team who got embarrassed by Auburn
Lean Clemson but going to wait on line for a bit....
This one was going to be my DOUBLE UP so I will start a new round of DOUBLE UPS with this one
Michigan St -16x 1U Double UP Play #1 (starting a second one)
-superior defense, rebounding and shooting ....check out Oakland's shooting stats...terrible as well as their shooting defense
-traditionally, this game is MSU winning by -11 to -20 over the last while but this is MSU's best team in a while in my opinion and especially at home
Kind of like Duke -19 vs GMason x HALF U - checks all the boxes for a strong ATS bias
Top Trends To Exploit in My Correlation Charts:
1. Teams ranked in Top 20 cover lines of -16 to -20.5 @ 78% (13 - 3 ) since the start of the season > yesterday, this group went 2 -0 or maybe even 3 - 0?
2. Teams ranked 151st to 190th are NOT covering well as favorites > only 8 x out of 35 (23% cover rate only!) instances when they play a team ranked 331st to 364th worst teams
3. Top 20 teams are 11 - 3 ATS no matter what the spread is when they play a team ranked 91st -120th
4. Teams ranked 41st - 65th are only 9 - 18 ATS vs teams ranked 231 - 280 (teams ranked 66 - 90th are only 7 - 18 ATS also)
Paying attention to details in my selections is working to a high percentage...better to wait for these situations then to get ITCHY 
Since Nov 30 = 27 - 12 record for ATS/Totals
Since Nov 2 = 38 - 22 ATS/Totals
Thursday - DOUBLE UP Play #1 - South Dakota -2.5 x 1U
-I figure this line to climb over night and this team can finish around the basket, Utah Tech struggle doing so and rebounding
- good correlation numbers too with spread and rank....only drawback, its a road team but I think their basket hawking would take over to keep them in it if Utah Tech got hot shooting all of a sudden
Also looking at/letting lines percolate a little: - these are maybes
Bellarmine +15
UCIrvine -3
SE Miss St -5.5
Friday night action plays (nothing worthy of a Double Up and now working on Saturday games while Irish-Hoosiers play)
Jackson St +5.5 x HALF U
Loyola Marymount -7.5 HALF U
Both have good correlations ....first one is a strong FADE correlation and the second is a favorite with ranks and spread being favorable when these rank zone teams play
Jackson St +5.5 x HALF U
Loyola Marymount -7.5 HALF U
7 - 3 (+2.5 Units) on the week ....working on Saturday plays and almost ready to scheme....might have a play in for my 2nd leg of the DOUBLE UP that I lost on South Dakota terribly in a late game collapse last night
Established in 1995,
...was in control up by 10 with 4-5 min to go and Utah Tech never missed a shot or 3pter the rest of the way..... SEARCHING for next play in DUP
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