7 pm
St. Johns -6.5 x 1 U
-falls into double correlation and very strong home team category....exactly like their opponent
-Rick Pitino is going to make his mark again with this team, I can feel it....he has them doing lockdown defense and Villa can get sloppy
Very strong double correlation for S. Illinois -2 but I am 0-2 on these picks today.... x HALF U for me only
Thanks Felix 
Next Play at 9pm
Utah -5 x HALF U
-they have controlled this series the past 2 seasons and Utah St always wins this game by more than 5 at home
-both teams look great statistically but I see Boise a little more wonky on the road and in some stats
-some very strong double correlations in my Conference play chart on this one
Incredible that I went 12 - 10 but still managed to climb almost 10 rank places in Kings contest:
01/11/2025 12-10-0 54.55% +500
Rank:
16
Net Units: +11750 Overall: 95-65-0
Lots of people had tough days at 'the office' I see...... lots of dog spreads covered all day
Sunday: Play #1 - Michigan St -2.5 x 1U
-almost a double correlation for Mich St here so the skinny line helps this play and their great statistics are supported by the long win streak
-this is going to be a rock fight .....not as many 3 pters and lots of action around the basket
-Sparty does not hit the 3 very well but they can shoot and score around the basked like few teams better than them....also great rebounders and defense
-NW is a chippy team that can play well but they lose to Mich St if they don't control themselves and shoot well around the basket
Inclined to take Chattanooga but only if the line drops....its right on the edge ....that game should go OVER the total also
Will look at 1 pm games shortly
Play #2 Canisius Under 133 x HALF U
-St Peters has a superior defense and especially vs the 3 pt shot.....and that is all Canisius likes to try mostly ...distant outside shots from their spots
-when Canisius plays a good defense team, the scores are lower.....this total is right on the edge of where I think the final score will be which will be something like 70-60 or 68-63
Strong correlation for Marist -7.5 ...... might play it but nothing official yet.
- statistically, Fairfield has a far worse defense and weaker offense ....worse rebounding
-BUT, Fairfield tends to control this series
Looks like I am going to start 2 - 0 in Kings and going to minimize my risk today ....
Merrimack game is exactly the same scenario.....I think a parlay both ways....so one covering and the other not covering and comboed (so 2 tickets) with your fave football play ml could be a nice +200 ticket
Play #3 Today - Michigan -13.5 x HALF U
- I think they destroy Washington because there is NOT one stat that they are better at than Michigan, and Michigan homecourt is one of the most impressive for the home team over the years...easily worth +5 pts or more for their home team
-CAUTION: Illinois lost to USC yesterday in the exact same scenario with a West coast team playing at team from the Midwest who was flying back home from a west coast trip..... DOUBLE CORRELATION in favor of Michigan that Washington has to beat
If I get beat twice, I am going to note this anomaly as a series one to fade going forward
Probably my last play of the day.... hoping for a 4 - 0 or 3-1 kind of day in Kings....looks like I am 2 - 0 after my first two picks
I am super impressed with this Oregon team!! I have seen them go down by 10 pts with nothing going their way and fight back in the last few minutes to win games. THEY HAVE BEATEN ALABAMA on neutral court which is really something.....and then the other day, on 4 days rest from jet lag, they go into Buckeyes territory and beat a very strong team at home traditionally
Oregon -2 x 1U
Plays update: - will do the week and overall after the Oregon match
Play #1 - Michigan St -2.5 x 1U 
Play #2 Canisius Under 133 x HALF U 
Play #3 Michigan -13.5 x HALF U
Play #4 Oregon -2 x 1U << want this one bad..... will put me in top 13 maybe and I have done a crapload of parlays with Buffalo ATS/UNDER and various things
All DATA inputted from Jan 1 to now....every game...rank zone vs rank zone (A-factor) as 1 Correlation factor
and....
Rank zone vs spread result (B- factor) and I have some interesting and different results than the Non Conference Schedule and results which is why I am doing this because I want 60% or higher (over 55% I am making profit) so, here are the best of each correlation side. If I get a strong result (67% or higher in BOTH correlation factors, that is when I say its a DOUBLE POSITIVE CORRELATION and will likely play it) I also get DOUBLE NEGATIVE correlations and in this case, I will fade the favorite
Some things definitely stands out with the spread success (B-factor):
- spreads higher than -15.5 are only hitting a success rate of 13 - 16 ATS
-one ranking zone is almost perfectly even in dog vs fave at 89 - 90 ATS for the fave
- ONE SPREAD ZONE below this spread.....is hitting 90 - 66 ATS no matter what the teams rank is but is a favorite 
....but I don't wish to give it away because I know Vegas reads some peoples threads!
-when you see a small line -2.5 or lower.....BE VERY SELECTIVE as this is only hitting 66 - 75 ATS for favorites.....in other words, VEGAS wants you to HUNCH and I will not do that
A-FACTOR Games:
-bet low lines on better ranked teams closer to game time......... favorites are covering regularly
-top teams are winning at a high ATS record vs good to excellent competition in their conference, but again ... be SELECTIVE in the matchup to confirm your side.....if not sure, lay off
Starting to look at lines now.....couldn't care less if I get my line EARLY or LATE ....where it is when I make my play dictates if I take it and how it correlates to my chart. No way am I going to change what I do. I still might hit a bad stretch once in a while like I did about 14 days ago
Tough finding a matchup here to like...
Mulling taking OVER 148.5 and -13 parlay with Howard scorching Coppin St scoring over 90 pts and allowing Coppin St to score 60
Play #1 x HALF U parlay based on comparing their stats ....will pay back close to 1U profit
Play #2 x HALF U - Norfolk -10 @ Morgan St.
- they pretty much can decide how they want to play on the road.....good defense, high scoring, low scoring ....it doesn't matter
-the one controlling factor is, MORGAN ST defense is terrible and Norfolk offense is excellent so because they have a strong defense too, I will side with the line that is hitting at a high clip
Play #3 - Texas AM CC -8.5 x HALF U
-dominate this matchup
-great offense and can rebound and play defense well if needed
-their opponent is weaker on both sides of the ball .....
-good double correlation but not very strong.....only good double correlation
OVER 148.5 and -13 parlay with Howard 
Play #1 x HALF U parlay > payout $105 profit puts my exotic account within $50 of even now
Play #2 x HALF U - Norfolk -10 @ Morgan St. < bad pick 
Play #3 - Texas AM CC -8.5 x HALF U
3 - 2 night in Kings of Covers > still move up to #12 OVERALL because of a lot of upsets I guess...
Forgot to update my thread status and weekly total......will do that now before working on tomorrow's games
Sunday Jan 5th - Sunday Jan 12th:
Week = 20 - 10 - 1 (+5.5 Units )
Season = 78- 48 - 1 (+29 Units = + > $3400 ) = 61.9% (glad its higher than Kings which is free 
)
King of Covers Now: > 12th Last2thirst 101-68-0 59.76% +13100
Exotic Bet Account = - $136 << shaved off $105 tonight
Once again, Vegas puts up some very tight lines Tuesday:
-NOTHING grabs me in the correlation chart that is stellar.....so I am going to play TEASER
5 PT: Key Auburn -2.5 with Arizona St -0.5 with: - $40 each > win pays $44 profit
1. Texas Tech
2. TTech UNDER 152.5
3. Ole Miss +16
4. Wisconsin -2
I honestly find tomorrow's lines to be tough but if I had to pick 1-2...
I think AUBURN senses they will get a good match and Bruce Pearl will have his team fired up at home on the mental side of things.....and accept the challenge that Miss St provides which means they use the home crowd and shooting spots to their advantage
My favorite play would be Arizona St -5.5 or -6 .....UFC stats are not as good and I find Florida teams tend not to play well in elevation and time zone changes to the western part of the U.S.
Chart says take a break and don't press, so I won't
I sniffed out a bad card of games last night but did not just avoid it and it caught me....
-2 - 4 in Kings
-$160 in TEASERS
Wednesday: - again, tough card /set of lines to go with my correlation chart
Only 1 play > Michigan St -11.5 x 1U
- there are some other maybes but not going to push it
Remember I discussed this in a previous post....January blahs and what that is, the very best teams in all conferences GET BORED with Conference Play because technically it has little to do with March seeding except for the underlings or middle teams fighting to make it......and the top teams had a tough Non Conf schedule with plenty of variety of teams
Last night Florida and Alabama
Tonight Michigan St perhaps and maybe Tennessee
Have to be careful in the coming week or three
Not saying you fade the top 20 teams but maybe ignore them or being super selective (mostly revenge matches ?) and concentrate on the teams 21-100 ranks and any other category that has vs the other rank category higher
Made 13 plays tomorrow night in the KINGS contest..... lots of great correlations and will start breaking down what I think are the best games to suggest in here. I am not concerned about line movement except in the contest because I am only going to end up with 3-5 ideas likely for in here and will try to filter the best situations
Thursday:
Play #1 - Double Up #3 x 4U Michigan -9.5
- look, I am due for a stumble on a TRIPLE Double streak (0-3) but I will take my chances on the #1 FG team in the nation facing a Minny team that has trouble scoring in bunches to stay with strong offensive teams....and if they do find their shooting legs, they will have to sustain that against a strong Michigan defense who counters to offense extremely well for easy buckets
- I don't think Minny is up to the task but this week, we are starting to see some strange things with top teams and Michigan I feel, is not getting the respect it deserves and will continue to fire until it does (just look at their last 5 games!)
More game plays to come but I have to get this one out right away
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