Lots of candy being broke open for da party ! Ye haw 
So far so good!
5-1 with a 1 point loss in a S. Ill. tease. Need USC to hammer it!
"Splaturday" lol 
Nice work...
USC had every edge on paper pretty much...had NW jumping time zones and USC was flat....it happens
You have to watch for pretty good teams in strong conferences when they get to 8 - 10..... 9 - 10 records....they don't want to tip over into a confirmed losing season and their coaches /self motivation drives them
I did not take that into consideration and should have laid off this game
Early games present 2 FADES but I don't know..... I just did the matchups on them and I think Vegas has the right lines and maybe a little low for the favorites considering what I see in the matchup
- I think one of the two games will hit OVER and the other UNDER so I might do some parlays mixing the two with some other things
Two fade games are:
Stetson @ Lipscomb -15.5
-Stetson beat Lips by 10 already but have been playing well lately and I think they want revenge because it was a fluke...they can hold down Stetson's offense but Stetson won't do it again against Lipscomb's offense now
FGCU @ Austin P -5.5
-AP already beat FGCU in their building by 10 pts.....why is this line so low? I think ML key for AP might be a good bundle with some things
All other games until 6 pm are meh in my correlations:
Play #1 - Vermont -4.5 x HALF U
-rank group correlation is positive = 66 - 53 ATS
-SPREAD for Vermont's rank group is positive = 70 - 55 success rate on this spread
-since its a road team, I won't go full half because UMASS L can be quirky and score a lot pts sometimes
Play #2 - **caution** Matchup Play but it swims against a strong fade situation
Portland St -2.5 x 2.5 U and Portland St winning margin HALF U to win by 1-2 pts @ +1100
-their offense blows away EWU and they can play shutdown defense....this is what I look for when considering a road fave
-EWU has had a tough schedule but they languish against teams that can score in multiple ways (OFF REB/ FG/3PT)
Offense for Portland St (defense is top 50 vs FG/3PT/REB)
Offense
Season Stats Rank
POINTS/G 81.6 #120
FG % 48.0 #52
3PT % 33.9 #192
FT % 69.4 #272
Rebounds/G 36.0 #74
Most lines tonight (80%+) of all games are FADES ....but Vegas knows this so they made the lines 'skinny' so just like the 1 pm matchup lines set, I see a similar pattern in evening games. I made my pick based on MATCHUP analysis
Two Home DOGS I like if I were doing TEASERS and even sprinkle ML.....
DENVER +4.5 would be a KEY TEASER mixer ....teased to +9.5 is gold in my opinion..... they can score score score and at home they like to play fast sometimes catching visitors gasping for air playing up a mile high
UTEP +1.5 is a nice teaser and they are usually steady at home and control this series against their opponent in the last 10..... 9 - 1 or something like that
Played a three legger outside of L2Ts system today. One was Tex St +2 vs Coastal. State led 70-69 with 3 seconds left after coming back from a double-digit deficit with Coastal inbounding. Coastal threw up a three pointer and shooter was fouled. Nailed 3 from the line with 1 second on the clock. Final 72-70.
Oh well. Cashed the other two legs so 2 Ws and a push. Can't complain... 
Sorry for the digression. Carry on...
Basketball can slit your heart sometimes....
2 - 0 +2U ....happy the streak continues of positive UNITS for 5 days now
Saturday, we look for FADES and maybe 1-2 matchup plays like Portland St situation.... I am disappointed in a couple of teams cacking on my parlays but overall, still happy on the week
SHOOT! I missed Hawaii last night at -17 at home ....double strong positive correlation > spread for their rank group is now 10 - 3 success rate despite the high number and their ATS for the rank correlation was 35 - 22
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Games being considered due to correlations and hunches:
Michigan -15
-great rivalry
-great spread results for teams ranked #1 - 20 with this number
-Ohio St not formidable on the road traditionally > I think teams need a week or more to adjust to that road swing and it affected Michigan who was out there 6 days ago......but their first game back was a 14 pt win vs a strong Indiana team who rate as good or better than Ohio St
Double FADE correlation situations check out matchup data closer:
(rank groups + spread fade against favorite)
#82 Akron -8.5 @ Ohio #171
#170 Charlotte -3.5 at home vs Tulane #162
#159 UMASS -2.5 @ Buffalo #161
#136 North Texas -10 at home vs ECU #249
#158 Furman -4 @ #285 NC Greensboro #285
#141 ETSU -17 at home vs #354 Citadel
These are all under consideration.....might look at some matchups too to see if I can find something regardless of correlation signals
Early Hunch Play based on matchup:
N.Texas Under 135.5 x HALF U
-ECU is a poor offense in my opinion ...stats show weak shooting BUT they know how to manufacture pts if needed to stay in a match BUT it gets tough against one of the best defenses proven in NCAAB ......N.T. started the season playing a lot of grinding non-Conf games and I think they will enjoy playing a weak team here
-I see the line dropping which sometimes indicates it can be a tighter game so I like UNDER here
Predicted score = 72 - 62 ......or 68 -55
Teasing N Tex -6 under 139...
Ok, 1 - 0 start and if I stop, that makes 6 winning days in a row
not my style as you know....especially when there is fruit on the vine
Play #2 Rutgers +7.5 x HALF U
-they are playing well right now and Indiana is not
-Rutgers controlled this series over the years and its not a given Indiana will win this although statistically, they look much better than Rutgers but I was saying the exact thing about CINCY who went onto upsetting all kinds of good teams with terrible stats
- the spread said FADE -6 in my spreadsheet .....BUT NOW ITS EVEN more daunting...they have to win by 8 to cover
RUTGERS is 9 - 10 and remember what I said about 9-10/8-10 teams in good conferences...if they want a respectable resume to get into the NIT or other tourney, they need to be above .500 from a tough conference and always play hard when their record is such....its a pattern I have noticed
I have analyzed these matchups:
Double FADE correlation situations check out matchup data closer:
(rank groups + spread fade against favorite)
#82 Akron -8.5 @ Ohio #171 <<< I want to bet his UNDER but it seems like a tad low ...+ Ohio pts better in TEASER
#170 Charlotte -3.5 at home vs Tulane #162 << Charlotte with better offense and at home ... + pts TEASER??
#159 UMASS -2.5 @ Buffalo #161 << one of the best all round players in College is out for Buffalo and not likely to play ....he can do everything including give assists, rebound and score 30 pts a lot .......awesome HOME TEASER +7.5
*** total is going up so maybe he plays??*** Play #3 Over UMASS-Buffalo 159.5 x HALF U << hunch call here as I see Buffalo can still score without their star and UMASS has an offense that can give Buff some issues....lots of shots on FT line in second half will put this over ....BUFFALO games on a Friday night are raucous crowds....have watched one game live 20 yrs ago when we went and watched Syracuse play the next day too
#136 North Texas -10 at home vs ECU #249 << got the UNDER here = 1 - 0 + HALF U
#158 Furman -4 @ #285 NC Greensboro #285 < I did some soccer parlays with this and some tennis but did not love it to call out in my thread due to Furman's style of play and defense >> FURMAN is up 3 pts with 10 min to play
#141 ETSU -17 at home vs #354 Citadel << I like this one and gonna try it with St.Francis ML in a parlay and I like ST FRANCIS as a matchup play -2.5 on its own
Play #4 - St Francis -2.5 x 1U
-why is this line so low???
-Chicago St with only 2 wins and an inadequate offense having to travel in the cold and nervous flight in the middle of STORMAGEDDON to play and this home team has a decent offense
Play #5 - Citadel +17.5 @1.90 with St.Francis ML 1.64 x HALF U pays +212 = $106 profit for a $50 bet
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Starting to align Saturday games .....looking mostly for FADES !!!
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