L2T Conference Betting Thread

Looks like I sniffed out that fading Furman was a tricky play.....ahhhh shoot....still gonna lose some $5 and $10 mixed parlay tickets with them so not unscathed

Tailing RUT + 7.5, St Francis -4, and UMASS over 159.5. Threw in a tease with Ohio +11 and under 171.5.

Let's roll L2T!

St Francis up to -4 ? whoa

Living dangerously...

Gonna finish up 2 - 2 ATS +0.5 U and a loss of Half U on exotic play

Onto to SATURDAY!

Saturday Prospects: 11 am - 1:30 pm game starts

-there are about 3 lines that have not been posted yet on BET365 but I have gone through spread and rank group correlations

- I will commit to some of these options later tonight....going to let the lines brew a little and handicap 2 - 3 pm games in the meantime but if you want to get a head start, by all means these ones fit my DOUBLE CORRELATION (spread + rank group) the best

FADE THE FAVORITE:

#147 Charleston -3 at home vs  #168 Elon 

#177 Campbell -5.5 at home vs #226 Monmouth

#137 Wright St -3.5 at home vs #160 N. Kentucky 

POSITIVE ATS FOR FAVORITE + Spread Success:

#223 Princeton -5 at home vs #288 Brown 

#28 NC State  -5  @  #88 Pittsburgh

There are some pretty good matchups and I think I can find some more things like TOTAL plays but I haven't got time for that right now with so many games Saturday 

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Next to report on is 2 pm to 3 pm game starts 

Adding: - new lines finally opened for more 11 am - 1:30 pm games

*** a couple more Positive Double Correlations added***

FADE THE FAVORITE:

#147 Charleston -3 at home vs #168 Elon

#177 Campbell -5.5 at home vs #226 Monmouth

#137 Wright St -3.5 at home vs #160 N. Kentucky

POSITIVE ATS FOR FAVORITE + Spread Success:

#223 Princeton -5 at home vs #288 Brown

#28 NC State -5 @ #88 Pittsburgh

#210 Indiana St -2.5 at home vs  #181 Drake

#224 American -4  @ #302 Holy Cross

Note: - pretty much all week, Vegas is not setting good double correlations for home teams (Princeton the exception so far tomorrow) > they want you to take road teams and frankly, I don't mind that so long as the MATCHUP STATS seem in your favor and they matchup well in history as the dominant team and no injuries that impact the game

-Vegas gives shit on stick on a Saturday.... I want to break my 2 bad Saturdays in a row streak so I will be very selective tomorrow....it has to blow my mind!! NO PLAY COMMITTED YET for me

Play #1 - George Mason -2.5 x 1U

- I have no idea why this line is so low ..... when you look at stats, GM can do it all on both sides of the ball and RI, not so much 

-GM has controlled this series and I cannot see them losing the game..... I might up might up my bet in-game and take them winning margin to win by 1-2 and RI to win by 1-2 pts but it will be a judgement call on game flow 

- I like the fact this rank group correlation is a positive 24 - 18 ATS 

Play #2 - South Dakota +10.5 x 2 U

-STRONG Double Fade and I love South Dakota's home court......they beat a lot of good teams that are ranked better than them year after year ....and plenty of points get scored

Play #3 - Over 162.5 > their first game sailed way above this and I expect the same in this game

Play #4 - VTECH +12.5 x HALF U

-strong fade of this spread for Louisville's rank group ....they success rate is only 13 - 31 covering as a favorite

-Louisville are up and down and can blow you away if motivated and start fast ....so I am being cautious

Play #5 - Illinois +5.5 x HALF U

- I really really like both of these teams BUT ....Illinois are notoriously tough to slay when in a competitive game and the last two games in Purdue were won by the home team by 5 pts exactly both times...... this will be a dandy game

Will cap 4 pm - 630 games tomorrow.......and consider slowing down and looking for the 1-3 plays that could dig me out of a poor start to my day....I always look for that on a Saturday > betting a 3 - 5 U play that knocks my socks off later in the day!

GL with your capping 

Before heading to bed, I noticed some odds that were pretty sweet but did not act - big reversals this morning:

-Holy Cross moved to -1.5 at one point and now American -5 !

-North Florida +9.5 and now +5 ( I got that good number in Kings contest) 

BELL at UNF 11:00 AM
UNF +9.5
+500
MISS at UK 11:00 AM
UK -9.5
+500
MONM at CAMP 12:00 PM
MONM +5.5
+500

-NC State has jumped to -6.5 from -5 

-Vandy and Nebraska both Top 10 teams dropping a touch 

-Vermont jumped 3 pts to -9.5 ....seems too frothy

-Bucknell flipped 3 pts and now favorite -1.5

- same for Columbia > a 2.5 pt move to now favorite > kind of like this Dartmouth team at home!

GEORGE MASON dropped to -1.5 ?? wtf haha

-leaning Texas Tech and want to watch this line ....they are so tough at home!!!

-fading Louisville looking riper as it jumps to +13.5 for VTECH

- ILLINOIS bonus half pt if you laid it > up to +6

-Colorado line increasing but they have dropped about 4 games in a row!

*** don't see Illinois St - Belmont *** - wonder if they deferred the time? Really want to see the line on this one

Onto capping 4pm - 630pm games now.....

I am kind of liking this Vermont - Bryant total..... 135.5 to go UNDER

-Bryant does not get into high scoring games

-Vermont will oblige a team that is more controlled and low scoring to play that style

-over the past 6 games, Vegas has set the line at 141 or higher and its never reached this number!!!!! Bryant I remember had offensive teams the past couple of years but this year they are weak and defensive

-2 out of the past 6 games between them went over this by HALF pt and 2.5 pts 

***WATCH THIS TOTAL*** << excellent teaser Under to get 140.5 on a 5pt teaser

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Play #6 - Marist Under 141.5 x 1U

-Marist is a very tough defense with great stats including limiting 3 pt shots

-Quinn has a decent offense and shoot the 3 pt shot well 

- it looks like Quinn can play a grinding style of game if needed and Marist can shut down a good team > they beat Iona 80+ - 38 

-because Marist has lost a couple of games, I would rather take the UNDER and see them grind on their opponent than try to out score them 

*** LAST 5 head to head matches have been UNDER this total ***

Georgia - Texas Total seems too high .... 168.5 > think it should be around 159

- Georgia does not always play high tempo on the road...they have good defensive stats

-Texas does not always play high tempo at home 

Lean Belmont - Illinois St Under 151.5 

- both teams tend to play against good opponents scoring in the 70's and traditionally, they play games that are close to each other in score ....similar teams with good defenses and offenses that can overwhelm against weaker opponents but like to keep things tight and competitive vs good teams

-most matchups under this number

-both teams poor on the FT line so that helps in a matchup that is around 140-143 total with a minute to go and fouling each other

@Last2thirst

BOL today!!

Positive/Fade Correlations  12 noon - 3:30 pm games - UPDATED (some removed due to line and rank changes)

FADE THE FAVORITE:

#147 Charleston -3 at home vs #168 Elon

#177 Campbell -5.5 at home vs #226 Monmouth

#137 Wright St -3.5 at home vs #160 N. Kentucky

added***

#168 Marist -3.5 at home vs #180 Quinninpac 

#251 Coastal -3 at home vs #244 S.Mississippi

#164 Oakland -6.5 @ #275 Detroit << I think this line is out of whack now!!

POSITIVE ATS FOR FAVORITE + Spread Success:

***Princeton removed

*** NC State removed

#210 Indiana St -2.5 at home vs  #181 Drake

#224 American -4  @ #302 Holy Cross

This is what I wrote and forgot to send before my big walk at 12:45 pm....sorry 

Summary of Plays/Results:

Play #1 - George Mason -2.5 x 1U

Play #2 - South Dakota +10.5 x 2 U

Play #3 - Over 162.5

Play #4 - VTECH +12.5 x HALF U

Play #5 - Illinois +5.5 x HALF U 

------------------------------------------all above bet late Friday night

Play #6 - Marist Under 141.5 x 1U

other leans: 

-Vermont - Bryant total..... 135.5 to go UNDER

-Lean Belmont - Illinois St Under 151.5 

Checking results....just been on a long 2 hr business call so I will have to look at 5 pm and later games for any intel ........or stop if my results are meh

Summary of Plays/Results:

Play #1 - George Mason -2.5 x 1U   <<< not looking good shoot

Play #2 - South Dakota +10.5 x 2 U

Play #3 - Over 162.5

Play #4 - VTECH +12.5 x HALF U

Play #5 - Illinois +5.5 x HALF U  

------------------------------------------all above bet late Friday night

Play #6 - Marist Under 141.5 x 1U  

other leans: 

-Vermont - Bryant total..... 135.5 to go UNDER  <<< YES! 

-Lean Belmont - Illinois St Under 151.5   <<< YES !

I used to hate playing unders. But as someone once said, bet the under and you're winning until you lose. Conversely... well you get the idea.

Illini come through! It appears at this juncture that the dreaded Splaturday has in some measure been reduced to marginality. Let's complete the kill!

Play #1 - George Mason -2.5 x 1U  

Play #2 - South Dakota +10.5 x 2 U  

Play #3 - Over 162.5 x 1U   

Play #4 - VTECH +12.5 x HALF U   

Play #5 - Illinois +5.5 x HALF U  

------------------------------------------all above bet late Friday night

Play #6 - Marist Under 141.5 x 1U  

other leans: 

-Vermont - Bryant total..... 135.5 to go UNDER  <<< YES! 

-Lean Belmont - Illinois St Under 151.5   <<< YES !

3 - 3  -1U .... I have issues with Saturday, but gonna keep trying....its been a good week  despite giving back -1.5 U the last 24 hrs 

I think that's it and may be very selective tomorrow.....some good football on too

Once again, I am updating my data and this to start the week:

Best Spreads for Rank Groups:

#331 - 365 ranked teams > -3 to -5.5 spread =  19 - 10 ATS *** NEW category

#91 - 120 rank teams > -16 to -20.5 spread = (15 - 7 ATS) > was (13 - 7) ATS

#191 - 230 ranked teams > -0.5 to -2.5 spread = (61 - 40 ATS) > was (57 - 38) ATS

#21 - #40 ranked teams > -3 to -5.5 spread = (37 - 24 ATS)  > was (35 - 24) ATS

#1 - #20 ranked teams > -3 to -5.5 spread = ( 32 - 21 ATS) *** NEW category

All others I had before dropped below 60% success rate 

Worst Spreads for Rank Groups:

#21 - #40 rank teams > -11 to -15.5 = (14 - 37 ATS) > was (13 - 34 ATS)

#151 - 190 rank teams > -0.5 to -2.5 = (45 - 74 ATS) > was (42 - 67 ATS)

#151 - 190 rank teams > -3 to -5.5 = (52 - 80 ATS) > was  (44 - 77 ATS) 

#121 - 150 rank teams > -11 to -55.5 = (15 - 25 ATS) ***NEW category 

#121 - 150 rank teams > -16 to -20.5 = (3 - 9 ATS) ***NEW category 

All others have slipped upward to above 40% success rate 

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Fade and Success best combos of rank group and spreads will be presented next.....

Best FADE the favorite combos  on any spread:

-27  (36 - 63 ATS) > when favorite is ranked #151 - 190 favorite facing #231 - 280

-20  (37 - 57 ATS) > #91 - 120 favorite faces #231 - 280 opponent 

-9    (8 - 17 ATS) > #121 - 150 favorite faces #331 - 365 opponent

-8    (5 - 31 ATS) > #21 - 40 favorite faces  #151 - 190 opponent

-7    (6 - 13 ATS) > #121 - 150 favorite faces #91 - 120 opponent

-12  (22 - 34 ATS) > #21 - 40 favorite faces  #91 - 120 opponent

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When to highly consider taking the favorite using their spread: 

+15  (38 - 23 ATS) #91 - 120 faces an opponent ranked #231 - 280

+12  (38 - 26 ATS) #1 - #20 faces an opponent ranked #66 - 90

+6   (9 - 3 ATS)   #191 - 230 faces an opponent ranked #121 - 150

+17 (71 - 54 ATS) #191 - 230 faces an opponent ranked #281 - 330

Monday:

7pm: - Fade the FAVE play

Penn St +12 x 1U

-this spread has a 14 - 37 ATS success rate for the favorite for Ohio St's rank group #21 - 40

*** was fishing for +12.5 but not coming 

Might have another soon....