L2T Conference Betting Thread

GW @ GMason is going to be an amazing game.....some interest stats on their matchup:

-GMASON has dominated the past 2 yrs

-GW with the much tougher SOS than GM

-GW beat S.Florida on neutral court and only lost to Florida by 10 on neutral court 

-GMason with perfect home court/only 1 loss/beat VCU by 6 on home court ....lost to VTECH by 11 on the road 

-I say this game will be decided by Free Throws > go with stronger team on that basis unless close > side with Home Team!

GMASON -1.5 x HALF U - better FT/defense and good offensive numbers ...one bucket to win home cover ...like it!

Florida AM -11.5x 1U as my DOUBLE UP cover if McNeese beats TexAMcc by 10 pts or higher .....no play otherwise.... looking at some of the other games later and might play one 

Horse handicapping awaits...

3 - 1 ATS and just looking to finish up 4 - 1 ATS  +2 U and then - HALF U on one exotic play

Florida AM up by 18 pts with  18 minutes to go......

I am looking at FADES first for tomorrow....

This one is 22 - 37 ATS for the favorite but the line is small > UMASS -2 at home vs Toledo 

-Vegas kind of knows these fade trends you would assume and so they are giving not much on the line number

This Fade of Favorite is 19 - 28 ATS and there are a few games:

> Miami -11.5 at home vs Florida St

> Iowa -19 at home vs Rutgers 

> Utah St -16.5 at home vs UNLV

This fade is 45 - 59 ATS for favorite:

> Ohio -12.5  at home vs N.Illinois

Research and take your pick ....no commitments yet for me

I tend to really like the positive trends but will have a gander at these tomorrow and see how the lines 'brew'

2 Positive Trend correlation for Favorites:

Auburn -3 > fave is 31 - 25 vs the opponent rank they face 

-spread of this number for fave with their rank = 34 - 24 - 2  

Auburn -3 x 1U for me!

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S.Carolina -1 << if they stay favorite with the higher rank.....this is hitting 14 - 8 vs a team ranked 41 - 65th which  Oklahoma is 61st rank ....have to watch this line 

Playing it BECAUSE .... if the line swings, 61st vs a team 66 - 90th is 23 - 30 ATS 

S.Carolina -1 x HALF U

....WILL dig and do some more shopping tomorrow likely ... finished the day at 4 - 1 ATS +2U

Side I like in a matchup.....and this is something you have to exploit as the season moves through the rest of the way.

Arkansas is a very strong home team ....their record shows 4-5 losses ....they are gunning for a top 3 seed placing in the tourney which buys a better bracket path. Vandy has only 2 losses and can 'afford' to lose so I think Arkansas will be super motivated to beat Vandy to knock them down a peg and them move up a peg in the committee's eyes 

That line is priced to buy!

Arkansas -1.5 x 1U 

I also think Miami Ohio is priced to fade taking the home team ML .....I can't do it though because they are a favorite to follow this year....man, their games are exciting!

@Last2thirst

 Love this one  Woo Pig

Ok.... another good day is appreciated 

3 - 0 ATS +2.5U 

@Last2thirst

 great day sir, thank you for posting

 Its easy to post plays for such good people and who like to have fun..... that Arkansas win was sweat!!! 

I noticed Miami Ohio coming back to tie for OT and then winning by 5 ....they are fun but I could not be them today.

I just inputted the last two days and all suggested FADES pretty much hit and most of the suggested favorites ....all because I have updated my data to be used Monday and this week.

This suggests to me the trends from my spreadsheet should hold but again, the pattern for me is when I have 3 good days in a row, I get frisky and play too many games so I will keep it to 1-3 up to Saturday most likely but throw out best FADE lines and FAVORITE positive correlations and let YOU DECIDE which way you are going...

I should have some plays by about 4 pm 

Conference Betting ATS spreadsheet trends for favorites and spread trends: (last updated Jan 9/reported Jan 10)

Best Spreads for Rank Groups:

#191 - 230 ranked teams > -0.5 to -2.5 spread = 57 - 38 ATS

#1 - #20 ranked teams > -11 to -15.5 spread = 39 - 28 ATS

#21 - #40 ranked teams > -3 to -5.5 spread = 35 - 24 ATS

#191 - 230 rank teams > - 3 to -5.5 spread = 70 - 55 ATS

#91 - 120 rank teams > -16 to -20.5 spread = 13 - 7 ATS

#41 - 65 rank teams > -16 to -20.5 spread = 9 - 3 ATS

Worst Spreads for Rank Groups:

#21 - #40 rank teams > -11 to -15.5 = 13 - 34 ATS 

#151 - 190 rank teams > -3 to -5.5 = 44 - 77 ATS 

#151 - 190 rank teams > -0.5 to -2.5 = 42 - 67 ATS

#121 - 150 rank teams > -3 to -5.5 = 42 - 63 ATS 

#66 - 90 rank teams > -16 to -20.5 = 6 - 14 ATS

Best Fade of rank combos Against Favorites on any spread:

-29  (30 - 59 ATS) > when favorite is ranked #151 - 190 facing a team ranked faces #231 - 280

-21  (33 - 54 ATS) > #121 - 150 favorite faces #231 - 280 opponent 

-17  (22 - 39  ATS) > #151 - 190 favorite faces #151 - 190 opponent

-15  (63 - 78 ATS) > #281 - 330 favorite faces another #281-330 opponent 

-14  (46 - 60 ATS) > #151 - 190 favorite faces #281 - 330 opponent

-12  (19 - 31 ATS) > #21 - 40 favorite faces a team ranked #91 - 120

-12  (45 - 57  ATS) > #151 - 190 favorite faces #191 - 230 opponent

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When to highly consider taking the favorite on any spread: - *** this category shrinks each week!

+12  (34 - 22 ATS) #91 - 120 faces an opponent ranked #231 - 280

+13  (66 - 53 ATS) #191 - 230 faces an opponent ranked #281 - 330

+7  (32 - 25 ATS) #21 - #40 faces an opponent ranked #66 - 90

+9  (78 - 69 ATS) #281 - 330 faces an opponent ranked #331 - 365 

@Last2thirst

Outstanding work L2T! 

Hey, thanks. You can cap some games yourself this week and give those a try.....use this ratings/ranking system 

https://www.dratings.com/sports/ncaa-college-basketball-ratings/#scroll-time

Most favorable FAVORITE tonight according to trends is this game:

#249 ECU @ #115 home team Wichita -12

-revenge game from last year

- Wichita does not usually get into big scoring games

- ECU with very poor rankings in FG and 3 PT shot / Wichita with pretty good defensive rankings vs those 

Wichita -12 x HALF U 

Like the UNDER even better UNDER 145 x 1U

Play #3 - Navy -9.5 x 1 U

-another good favorite ATS play ...... Navy beat HC on the road by 7 despite shooting only 2 - 12 three point buckets

-Navy with a very strong defense and they shoot well and offensive rebound well/FT well so I can see them getting fouled a lot and frustrating Holy Cross and winning going away .... 13 - 6 team so they know how to win!!

-Holy Cross is not a great shooting team and only are excellent at preventing 3 pt shots 

Play #4 - USC -7 x 1 U

-NW has lost a bunch of games in a row and a time zone change to the west coast is not going to help this 8 - 10 team facing a 14 - 4 highly thought of home team

-NW shoots just ok and don't get too many OFF rebounds

-USC with a good defense against FG and 3PT so if NW is not firing ....I think this can be a blowout  but that will depend on USC's offense 

Might look for ONE great FADE to play but will throw out a few suggestions for you....

Fade the Fave Suggestions of worst combos of rank groups tonight:

+29 above .500 fader > Queens -11 vs N.Alabama?  > spread is 29 - 38 success rate 

+21 above .500 fader > Troy -7 @ Old Dominion  > spread is 57 - 67 success 

+21 above .500 fader > Winthrop -10 vs Radford > spread is 57 - 67 success 

+21 above .500 fader > ECU -4.5 @ Chattanooga > spread is 42 - 63 success 

@Last2thirst

Thanks! Having fun with teasers as well... BOL sir!

@Last2thirst

Awesome, that is exactly how you could play with them for sure !!

Thanks my brother from another mother from a nation that is the other!! 

Cheers bro 

3 - 0 +2.5 U with one more open play > USC -7

wow...I did parlays with some of my plays with some Aussie Open tennis and some of the suggested plays...just local sport tickets ....shit, they all covered  ....I'll take it for now but know there is a **splat ** day coming 

@Last2thirst

 Never know..stay hot big thirst!

@Last2thirst